Sony have some amazing things lined up me thinks.. expecting news soon......but even without that news they will still win worldwide with no problems.. to coin a phrase... Sony we are humbled.

noway in hell X1 is going to surpass Ps4 in 2014!

Retailers are slashing XB1 below Microsoft's new lower retail price and including games on top in the UK. That would not indicate a console that is selling like "hot cakes".

(cheapest bundle I've seen is £319.99 with LEGO Marvel in Sainsburys) though for £349.99 you can have it with Sunset Overdrive and Call of Duty Advanced Warfare. Which again, is Call of Duty completely free.

I can see it outselling the PS4 in the US in November and possibly December, but I certainly don't think it's going to be anywhere near 2:1, let alone the 3+:1 you expect.

1.2:1 would seem more realistic. unless you expect PS4 sales to drop through the floor.

I am expecting a "Wait till November" meme appear for Octobers NPD.

Oh god, i can't wait for november Npd.

And i really hope Sony will win, like this we won't have any more topic about charts from Ms players for the next 3/4 years.

"The best games" PS4 and X1 has the same ammount of games and exclusive more or less

"the best UI" yeah that sells consoles and also thats subjective

It all comes down to price and bundles and MS did a great job not enough to close the gap, I'm sure Sony is preparing something as well for black friday

Nope, it won't. May possibly beat PS4 for a month or two, but i think that's about it.

That is a very characteristic oversimplification and overestimation of the meaning of the hourly Amazon best seller list.

Amazon is an accurate predictor of which console will be number 1 for npd but it does not accurately predict sales ratio in NPD. If you look at Amazon Oct monthly sales then PS4 is 2:1 over xb one for October. But does anyone seriously believe NPD will show PS4 2:1 over xb one for October? I don't think so.

Also sales ratio on the week a $50 price cut comes into effect will never be sustained.

So no xb one Ltd will not move ahead of PS4 in the USA by the end of the year.

this is something interesting, something very attractive and tempting, but... I prefer the X1 wins in November .... I mean, if X1 does not win in November and December the thing will turn a complete massacre! If they can not sell the X1 at the current price (which in some bundles gets to have a "real value" within the category of the WiiU) i really think X1 will not be able to recover, and it will be  like Ps2 era... 

I hope it fails TBH. That way we see it at $199 before long, instead of $299 by June '15.

But in fact, I expect a 1:1 split in the US for Nov/Dec, with each winning a month by less than 20% in total.

One has to remember that the start/stop unsteady demand for X1 throughout 2014 has led to many stores/channels being loaded with old X1 SKUs that sold poorly, or worse, are basically obsoleted by the new hot bundle deals. When people see $349 X1s w/game(s), they don't want to pay $399 for bare or $499 for bare+Kinect ever again, meaning ALL of those old X1s in the channel are dead weight unless externally bundled + discounts.

So the actual number of these bundles is probably limited to a fairly significant degree. I never see them in stock out and about, and I probably stop by a dozen+ electronic departments every week. Remember the Madden bundle? That thing sold REALLY well imho, but I never actually saw one in person. There simply wasn't enough room in the channel to fit them in, so it appears by analyzing NPD data that they only ran around 50k or so of that bundle, 100k absolute max, but probably nowhere near that.

If we believe that the new bundles are similar (50k-100k of each), then they will be like the Madden bundle : hard to actually find in stores because stores are hesitant to order new SKUs when they have tons of old ones collecting dust.

What does that lead to? Interested customers checking with places like Amazon which are the absolute most likely to have the special bundles in stock. Which will vastly inflate the normally reliable numbers. Amazon is best when tracking things that have full availability everywhere, but when something gets scarce, if Amazon has stock it looks like it's selling even more than it is, and if Amazon doesn't have stock (but it's available more widely in regular retail), then it could appear to be selling worse than it is.

All this is a long way around the bush, but I believe that : 

(a) X1 *IS* outselling PS4 at retail at the moment

(b) MS is having trouble getting enough of these bundles into a stuffed channel retail situation

Amazon is the go-to solution for people on the hunt for these

(d) The ratio isn't as big as Amazon would normally indicate for the reasons listed above

(e) No more than 20% gap will be present for Nov/Dec in either direction, with a basic draw most likely, only exception being :

(f) If Sony LITERALLY does nothing, then I could see X1 carrying both months, maybe averaging 20% higher for the combo, but :

(g) Sony is incredibly likely to appear with the holiday combo specials very soon, but haven't announced yet because :

(h) It's a classic retail sin to pre-announce specials before they are available, as it harms sales of existing SKUs/inventory