Forums - Sales Discussion - Which will occur first? X1 pass WiiU or Ps4 50% marketshare?

Which will happen First?

X1 pass WiiU 70 24.56%
 
Ps4 attain 50% marketshare 161 56.49%
 
Gran Turismo 7 4 1.40%
 
The Last Guardian 11 3.86%
 
The Agent 1 0.35%
 
Sony fills bankrupcy 38 13.33%
 
Total:285

Wii U being overtracked means that both are technically closer to these goals.
XB1 is probably "closer" but currently, I would think they are both in sub 1 million range. It really depends on how fast these consoles sell now.
I'd wager on XB1, cause we would most likely hear from them first.



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TheDrill said:
PS4 will never attain 50 % marketshare, PS4 can barely tie X1 in the US and UK.

Ummm you may want to look at the percentages for lifetime already and this year.  If not for WiiU's 1 year lead it would already be there and it's getting there fast.




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In the last few weeks, the Xbox One seems to have been outselling the Wii U by about 3-to-1. Assuming the gap is 1.3M as of the latest data, that would mean the Xbox One will sell 1.95M and the Wii U will sell 650K when they cross over at 8M, giving the two systems 16M total.

So basically, the PS4 would have to sell 3.7M units before the Xbox One sells 1.95M to get 50% marketshare. Hm.... This is gonna be close! I'll say Xbox One will outsell Wii U first, thanks in particular to the holiday price cut.



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Not voting.

There's no option for -

"The XO will outsell the WiiU AND Ps4 will get %50 market share - IN THE SAME WEEK."

Black Friday week - bumps of 1.5 mill for ps4, 1 mill for XO - 300k WiiU - on top of their regular international weekly sales. By then (5 weeks or so away from current data) - I'd say the PS4 would be running close to 49% - and the XO to have closed another 250k on the WiiU (if not more from the Halo MCC bump).

I'm calling it. BOTH WILL HAPPEN IN BLACK FRIDAY WEEK.



Xbox outselling the Wii U will happen first and I'm not even sure PS4 will ever get 50% market share.



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@Sentient - That's a pretty fair analysis. I'd agree mostly.

The X Factor will be Black Friday. XO has the price cut, but PS4 is still in front - and may still be more desired - especially as - even if it's more expensive than the One on Black Friday, when it's not just about CHEAPER but SAVINGS.

But then if Halo MCC is the return to form/upgrade inspiring system seller to the huge 360 base MS hope it to be, things could play out differently.

That's it. Halo MCC - Black Friday - culminating in a kind of Black Friday stalemate, like some South Park / GOT mash up three part episode. Truly, I'm munching on Black Friday popcorn aww already - November is going to be a VERY interesting month.



Actually, looking at some new info, it seems that the Wii U is slightly overtracked, and the PS4 slightly undertracked.

This would swing the race massively in favor of the PS4, unless the Xbox One is also undertracked.



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@Noble. The only way I see that happening is if MCC does great numbers and gives a solid system bump in the two weeks leading up to Black Friday.

I'm calling MCC 600k WW first week, and 250k Xbox One HW bump the 8-14 Nov. Although that's a conservative estimate. My copy is preordered - but I don't trust the Australian XBox sw numbers on this site pre adjustment to think it'd count



Ps4 is likely already there. If not black friday will get it for sure.



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Torillian said:
TheDrill said:
PS4 will never attain 50 % marketshare, PS4 can barely tie X1 in the US and UK.

based on what?  

Serious question here, I'd like to see what sales numbers you are using to make this assumption.  


Its the drill. This is what he does. It's his form of trolling. I wouldn't take him seriously honestly.



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