Nothing else needed to be said after this post.

I said does, not is - neither console has even half of their big sellers out yet. (Which is a bit embarrasing for the Wii-U, but nonetheless true.)

I agree. Salsa makes every topic title better.

WiiU does?

3D Mario
2D Mario
Mario Kart
Donkey Kong
Wii Fit
Wii Sports

All that is left is Zelda and Smash, yet sales will still be around 10m after 2 years and 3 holidays and all those franchises.

XB1 will get to 10m in half that time with just Titanfall as a big seller so far.

No, it doesn't show anything. Even if you only count this century, MS edged out Nintendo with the Xbox-GC generation, then took an ass whippin' after that, and is a this point is neck-and-neck for this gen, not since 2000. What does that prove? Only that you can't predict what will happen from one generation to the next, i.e. this thread is beyond pointless.

Because your gap grows by 2 million if you cound actual sales.

Shipped is sold eventually, but that doesn't do us a lot of good when talking about a specific time frame.

I'm going to carry on using sales to talk about sales if you don't mind. That also means your 360 numbers are rather inflated. (84.8 vs. 83.3)

So we have a sales vs. sales gap of 19.89 million units.

The 360 likely does another 1-1.5 million in sales this year and then maybe 2 million in total for next year as support for last gen will all but end at the end of this year. Take off antother 1.5 million for 2016 and then add back another lets say 500k for the wii from now till the end of 2016.

Gap is now 15.39 million units.

Xbox One manages to shave another 2 million from that by the end of 2014, gap goes to 13.39 million units.

The Xbox One needs to outsell the WiiU by more than 6.5 million units in both 2015 and 2016.

Won't happen.

No, because WiiU is overtracked, and XB1 and 360 (certainly) undertracked.

See that's why you end up with skewy numbers when you use the sold figures, because they're not representative. 360 will end up shipping around 4m units this year, far cry from the sales we supposudly have.

X360 won't be any less than 91m end of 2016 and at that point shipment = sell through as 360 will be appoaching the end of its life.

So yeah, XB1 only has to outsell/ship WiiU by 5m a year.

Wii Sports and Wi Fit aren't system sellers - who other than Nintendo themselves really expected them to be? - As for Donkey Kong, its a good game but Metroid Prime 4 would sell more systems (its less open to everyone but its fanbase will be way more passionate).

3D World was (shamefully since its such a great game) dismissed for not being Mario Galaxy by alot of people, I've met alot of people who will buy a Wii-U if Galaxy 3 is announced and I think Nintendo know of that. 

The games I suspect will be the big system sellers are Xenoblade Chronicles X, Shin Megami Tensei x Fire Emblem, Star-Fox, Smash, Zelda U,  Mario Maker, and probably Splatoon OR Devil's Third (I want it to be be Splatoon but I feel like Devil's Third would find it easier to gain traction). That is ofcourse ignoring games we can kind of expect to come out that would sell consoles (Metroid Prime, Galaxy 3, Fatal Frame, F-Zero U).

I'd love to say Yoshi's Woolly World and Kirby's Rainbow Curse would be system sellers, but despite the high caliber we can expect from them I don't expect them to fall in with Donkey Kong as amazing games that get bought alot by system owners but don't especially sell the console.

Can't wait to see how Bayo is doing in the west given that we haven't actually exactly given up on home consoles (unlike in Japan).

I don't even .... Devils Third? Xenoblade? They're as niche as niche gets, they're not going to sell systems. Look at Mario Kart. Sales are up but they're still low, why would you think those games will do anything to push hardware?

Your average multiplat (which will be in abundence throughout 2015) will rise XB1 sales more.

Only ones out of those that will help are Zelda and Smash.

So basically, the Xbox One has to outsell the Wii U by 17 million units?

Certainly a possibility. It's too difficult to estimate lifetime sales at this point, particularly the Xbox One's.