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Seece on 26 October 2014
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Normchacho said:
Seece said:
Normchacho said:
Seece said:
Normchacho said:

Do you mean not about to happen as to say that your prediction is about to happen? Because it's not. It'll take years for Xbox to close that gap even in the best case scenario.

End of 2016 more than likely, and that is the most realistic scenario not the best.


The Xbox One has a little more than a million console advantage over the WiiU so far this year...Lets say the Xbox has a great rest of the year and pulls out a 3 million gap by the end of the year. How does a console go from selling 3 million more than a competitor one year to beating it by an average of 7 million over 2 years?

 

Edit: Note that these are using your sales/shipped numbers. Things get worse just going sales to sales.

mmm and why is that?

Shipped is ultimately sold and it's as good a benchmark as any so I'll continue with it.

The gap is 16.72m. (IMO) 360 will finish at 92m LTD, (2014 87m, 2015 90m, 2016 91.5m, 2017 onwards 92m, so another 8m shipped).

Given Wii is about done, it has 500k to 1m left in it, max.

This means by end of 2016 gap decreases to 11.5m~

XB1 will outship WiU next Q (Just like it has every other Q).

Really it's only XB1 outshipping WiiU 5m a year. Given there is an obvious ceiling for WiiU shipments each year, it won't be difficult.

Because your gap grows by 2 million if you cound actual sales.

Shipped is sold eventually, but that doesn't do us a lot of good when talking about a specific time frame.

I'm going to carry on using sales to talk about sales if you don't mind. That also means your 360 numbers are rather inflated. (84.8 vs. 83.3)

So we have a sales vs. sales gap of 19.89 million units.

The 360 likely does another 1-1.5 million in sales this year and then maybe 2 million in total for next year as support for last gen will all but end at the end of this year. Take off antother 1.5 million for 2016 and then add back another lets say 500k for the wii from now till the end of 2016.

Gap is now 15.39 million units.

Xbox One manages to shave another 2 million from that by the end of 2014, gap goes to 13.39 million units.

The Xbox One needs to outsell the WiiU by more than 6.5 million units in both 2015 and 2016.

Won't happen.

No, because WiiU is overtracked, and XB1 and 360 (certainly) undertracked.

See that's why you end up with skewy numbers when you use the sold figures, because they're not representative. 360 will end up shipping around 4m units this year, far cry from the sales we supposudly have.

X360 won't be any less than 91m end of 2016 and at that point shipment = sell through as 360 will be appoaching the end of its life.

So yeah, XB1 only has to outsell/ship WiiU by 5m a year.