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Forums - Sales Discussion - September 2014 NPD Thread! Everything is up!

mornelithe said:

Ok, so now that you've seen a couple responses from folks more in the know than I, such as Arkaign's reponse (see below).  Does the amount of time it takes for leaks to occur make sense, given NPD is a paid for set of data, and that they can't just give the information out, and why when the information is leaked, it usually starts as total revenue hardware/software, then a pie chart, then your % > < lists etc...?  If they just give it out, these folks will get in trouble, and without them, getting our hands on the numbers would be dramatically more difficult.

"He's not understanding. There are multiple gaffers with explicit access to NPD numbers, but they can't just put them out there in plain text, they have to obfuscate a bit. That's why you see graphs, yes/no answers, etc. 


The final consensus is always solid though, and you would get banned to the moon for lying about the numbers. But instead of "124k" for an item, you might get ">120 and <130" Etc. 

Basically you have a lock within a scant % on everything major on a reliable basis. Some months are extra tough due to the most connected leakers being careful or taking their sweet time with it."

Well, well, well. 

I´ve read the explanation and acknowledge their validity.

Specialy as they only give rounded number (that I prefer) the "true" valor could change at the public bias. That´s why I said "general concensus" and consolidated opinion in NeoGaf.

I don´t have access to old Neogaf threads. But my memory is good.

So, when they said "Almost double" the true number could be off several duzen thousands up and down. It´s not a evil machination or coordenate, but most of the time they "overtrack" the PS4 or "undertrack" the XOne. It´s just their state of mind specialy when MS don´t tell anything and profets of apocalypse go rampant.

This could also explain why Sony is much more quite than they used or ought to be opening that magnificent of a lead. NPD terms could have become harsher with public statements.

In January they openly stated they sould almost double the next closer competitor. According to Neogaf leaks this happened again in April, May and now. Sony also reached the 5mi milestone and opened a 1mi lead.

If all that is true, my theory now is that NPD therms have become more restricted.



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Congrats to all. Superb curb stomp, all undertracked (Ps4 zeroing the balance in vgc USA). 12M for september end and a shot to 18m december end if stock suffice. Cheeeeers
about DF how would Sony slowing down would Help the industry (maybe x1 wouldn't even benefit from it)? Maybe you should cheer that x1 and wiiu sells better or the problem isn't dominance but who do it? I'm ms as 3:1 to Sony would be bad for gamers based on ms rrod, drm and other fiascos while Nintendo would keep their pace and give us gen 7 part 2 (not bad even if i preffer Sony ahead). Do you work for MS and is afraid of being caught criticizing it? I find it hard to believe you have a well paid job designing sw and hw (even more saying you do both) but pass so much time on here just on work time. And even worst I doubt there is much ms only player on an age to be well paid, not many over 10k wages for under 30 in here. Or 3k is well paid for you? For me is over 20 or 30k aiming for it in 5-10y timeframe.
Brasil is bad represented in here. Zero, you, eThomaz and me. All fierce console warriors with a past of moderations and cheapshots and dowrating. One is perma, one came back from exile more level headed and one is trying to behave better in here for 6 months and find it hard to hold our brazilian joker side, what you intend to be and behave here? Zero could always get a new companion.
no one called you delusional or fanboy we just question your strange acts and flipflopping and 2 weights 2 measures way and cheerpicking numbers to fit agenda while dismissing the source you used the previous time if not fit (more like thedrill than toastie). And why are you attacking toastie that isn't even here? He supports ms fiercely and spin numbers and overestimate ms side while understimating competition but is funny and respectful.
sorry to the mods for the rant and thanks community and boultros for this fantastic NPD.
maybe aquamarine should come more often to see we don't take VGC numbers as gospel (some do) and also release the numbers of ioi and mods richness (that would be deserved over the excelent site, fun threads and bogus weekly numbers).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Dark_Feanor said:

Well, well, well.

I´ve read the explanation and acknowledge their validity.

Specialy as they only give rounded number (that I prefer) the "true" valor could change at the public bias. That´s why I said "general concensus" and consolidated opinion in NeoGaf.

I don´t have access to old Neogaf threads. But my memory is good.

So, when they said "Almost double" the true number could be off several duzen thousands up and down. It´s not a evil machination or coordenate, but most of the time they "overtrack" the PS4 or "undertrack" the XOne. It´s just their state of mind specialy when MS don´t tell anything and profets of apocalypse go rampant.

This could also explain why Sony is much more quite than they used or ought to be opening that magnificent of a lead. NPD terms could have become harsher with public statements.

In January they openly stated they sould almost double the next closer competitor. According to Neogaf leaks this happened again in April, May and now. Sony also reached the 5mi milestone and opened a 1mi lead.

If all that is true, my theory now is that NPD therms have become more restricted.

You are spreading the FUD again.

GAF reachs the exactly number after the first "buzz" posters... the leakers just started after ~6 hours of the NPD thread was opened.

The "almost double" come from jornalists like Geoff.

GAF have every single month the exactly number of sales for all consoles.

PS4 reached 4,488,000... the gap in US is exactly 997k.

 

You create (or dream) numbers that didn't exists to try to make the leakers looks wrong... please stop embarrassing yourself.



Dark_Feanor said:
mornelithe said:

Ok, so now that you've seen a couple responses from folks more in the know than I, such as Arkaign's reponse (see below).  Does the amount of time it takes for leaks to occur make sense, given NPD is a paid for set of data, and that they can't just give the information out, and why when the information is leaked, it usually starts as total revenue hardware/software, then a pie chart, then your % > < lists etc...?  If they just give it out, these folks will get in trouble, and without them, getting our hands on the numbers would be dramatically more difficult.

"He's not understanding. There are multiple gaffers with explicit access to NPD numbers, but they can't just put them out there in plain text, they have to obfuscate a bit. That's why you see graphs, yes/no answers, etc. 


The final consensus is always solid though, and you would get banned to the moon for lying about the numbers. But instead of "124k" for an item, you might get ">120 and <130" Etc. 

Basically you have a lock within a scant % on everything major on a reliable basis. Some months are extra tough due to the most connected leakers being careful or taking their sweet time with it."

Well, well, well. 

I´ve read the explanation and acknowledge their validity.

Specialy as they only give rounded number (that I prefer) the "true" valor could change at the public bias. That´s why I said "general concensus" and consolidated opinion in NeoGaf.

I don´t have access to old Neogaf threads. But my memory is good.

So, when they said "Almost double" the true number could be off several duzen thousands up and down. It´s not a evil machination or coordenate, but most of the time they "overtrack" the PS4 or "undertrack" the XOne. It´s just their state of mind specialy when MS don´t tell anything and profets of apocalypse go rampant.

This could also explain why Sony is much more quite than they used or ought to be opening that magnificent of a lead. NPD terms could have become harsher with public statements.

In January they openly stated they sould almost double the next closer competitor. According to Neogaf leaks this happened again in April, May and now. Sony also reached the 5mi milestone and opened a 1mi lead.

If all that is true, my theory now is that NPD therms have become more restricted.

Sony and Ms are free to publish their own data as Nintendo have done the past months. Ms don't say because they are bad and Sony not to see like a braggy sore winner. When x1 was still in hot demand sony done it to gain momentum now it would be only beat a dead horse and people disapprove this kind of arrogance and would root for the underdog so they must those. Sony in europe brags from time to time but it would be bad for monthly say they outsold X1 7-10:1.





duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
Congrats to all. Superb curb stomp, all undertracked (Ps4 zeroing the balance in vgc USA). 12M for september end and a shot to 18m december end if stock suffice. Cheeeeers
about DF how would Sony slowing down would Help the industry (maybe x1 wouldn't even benefit from it)? Maybe you should cheer that x1 and wiiu sells better or the problem isn't dominance but who do it? I'm ms as 3:1 to Sony would be bad for gamers based on ms rrod, drm and other fiascos while Nintendo would keep their pace and give us gen 7 part 2 (not bad even if i preffer Sony ahead). Do you work for MS and is afraid of being caught criticizing it? I find it hard to believe you have a well paid job designing sw and hw (even more saying you do both) but pass so much time on here just on work time. And even worst I doubt there is much ms only player on an age to be well paid, not many over 10k wages for under 30 in here. Or 3k is well paid for you? For me is over 20 or 30k aiming for it in 5-10y timeframe.
Brasil is bad represented in here. Zero, you, eThomaz and me. All fierce console warriors with a past of moderations and cheapshots and dowrating. One is perma, one came back from exile more level headed and one is trying to behave better in here for 6 months and find it hard to hold our brazilian joker side, what you intend to be and behave here? Zero could always get a new companion.
no one called you delusional or fanboy we just question your strange acts and flipflopping and 2 weights 2 measures way and cheerpicking numbers to fit agenda while dismissing the source you used the previous time if not fit (more like thedrill than toastie). And why are you attacking toastie that isn't even here? He supports ms fiercely and spin numbers and overestimate ms side while understimating competition but is funny and respectful.
sorry to the mods for the rant and thanks community and boultros for this fantastic NPD.
maybe aquamarine should come more often to see we don't take VGC numbers as gospel (some do) and also release the numbers of ioi and mods richness (that would be deserved over the excelent site, fun threads and bogus weekly numbers).


I´ve not been suspended in the last 6 months...

I´m not a console warrior, I don´t like this stupid war. I´m a computer engineer, I joing in here in the time when the console war was all but over, so, last year was a first for me. 

I just like technology and financial modeling. I aways try to be reseanable and give even a little bit of proof to back my claims. 

We all have the right to say what we belive is happening and gonna happen. Ethomaz banstreak was mostly because he stated opinion as fact "UNDENIABLE FACTS", even if he some times is right. He´s been much better lately.

I don´t care if there is or there will be a PS2 domination. That is pointless, you as a Brasilian would understand whem I tell that I´ve never seen a original PS2 game disc. NEVER. Besides at that time I was busy plaing Warcraft 3, Diablo 2, Counter Striker... on my PCs and in LAN Houses.

So, all you guys read here is MY OPINION, nothing more. When I say it´s a fact I would say "accordin to X" or link a page.



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DonFerrari said:

Brasil is bad represented in here.


HUEHUEHue BR BR

 

...sorry couldn't resist. I think i kind contribute in that, the console warrior inside me that i didn't acknowledged really grew in this generation



 

 

We reap what we sow

DonFerrari said:

Sony and Ms are free to publish their own data as Nintendo have done the past months. Ms don't say because they are bad and Sony not to see like a braggy sore winner. When x1 was still in hot demand sony done it to gain momentum now it would be only beat a dead horse and people disapprove this kind of arrogance and would root for the underdog so they must those. Sony in europe brags from time to time but it would be bad for monthly say they outsold X1 7-10:1.




What about Sony Spain and the 7 x 1 ?

Apple claims their overwelming lead in the USA. Google Android claim theirs WW. Microsoft always reiterate they have 95% of computer market...

Again, my theory that NPD has become more restrict. 



Dark_Feanor said:

What about Sony Spain and the 7 x 1 ?

Apple claims their overwelming lead in the USA. Google Android claim theirs WW. Microsoft always reiterate they have 95% of computer market...

Again, my theory that NPD has become more restrict.

Theory? It is a fact.

NPD announced in 2012 they will stop to share to public the numbers and only the companies subsctipted to them can share their numbers... it was a request from the publisher companies.

So they become more restric due publicher complains.

Before 2012 you have everymoth all the console sales and the TOP10 sales.

Edit - An example of NPD in old days: http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/12/october-npd-uncharted-2-takes-top-spot-while-hardware-sales-slo/



Dark_Feanor said:

What about Sony Spain and the 7 x 1 ?

Apple claims their overwelming lead in the USA. Google Android claim theirs WW. Microsoft always reiterate they have 95% of computer market...

Again, my theory that NPD has become more restrict


You may be right in the fact that NPD still don't count digitals sales and (truly) bundled games.

In a world of bundles and digital sales becoming more and more prevailing, NPD numbers don't tell anymore the exact games sales data.



ethomaz said:

Theory? It is a fact.

NPD announced in 2012 they will stop to share to public the numbers and only the companies subsctipted to them can share their numbers... it was a request from the publisher companies.

So they become more restric due publicher complains.

Before 2012 you have everymoth all the console sales and the TOP10 sales.

Edit - An example of NPD in old days: http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/12/october-npd-uncharted-2-takes-top-spot-while-hardware-sales-slo/


Thank you. That explains a lot.

I will still give Neogaf leaks a grain of salt. 

And let´s educate people to set appart what is leak and what is concensus there.