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Forums - Sales Discussion - September 2014 NPD Thread! Everything is up!

vivster said:
Slarvax said:
vivster said:
Am I reading correctly that Wii U is down 8% from last September? How is that even possible? Don't see any big releases last year except W101.

WWHD bundle and price drop.

Hm... fair enough I guess. Though one might think that 2014 Wii U with its newfound attention should be able to easily outsell last years "selling like a dead rock" Wii U.

Depends on your perspective. Which should sell the Wii U more: Re-release of WW with a limited edition bundle, and a price drop; or better year overall and Hyrule Warriors.



Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

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vivster said:
Slarvax said:
vivster said:
Am I reading correctly that Wii U is down 8% from last September? How is that even possible? Don't see any big releases last year except W101.

WWHD bundle and price drop.

Hm... fair enough I guess. Though one might think that 2014 Wii U with its newfound attention should be able to easily outsell last years "selling like a dead rock" Wii U.

Well September was a high note for the U for sure in 2013. With all the focus on X1 and PS4, I think Nintendo could come in and shock people with a $199 bundle for the holidays. That would tempt a lot of people, including me.



Arkaign said:

Well September was a high note for the U for sure in 2013. With all the focus on X1 and PS4, I think Nintendo could come in and shock people with a $199 bundle for the holidays. That would tempt a lot of people, including me.


Likewise



Slarvax said:
vivster said:
Slarvax said:
vivster said:
Am I reading correctly that Wii U is down 8% from last September? How is that even possible? Don't see any big releases last year except W101.

WWHD bundle and price drop.

Hm... fair enough I guess. Though one might think that 2014 Wii U with its newfound attention should be able to easily outsell last years "selling like a dead rock" Wii U.

Depends on your perspective. Which should sell the Wii U more: Re-release of WW with a limited edition bundle, and a price drop; or better year overall and Hyrule Warriors.

The one with the better value proposition, which is 2014 Wii U.



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Dark_Feanor said:

Any way, my point is that there are contradition from each different leaker, eventhough they make a effort to "consolidate" their numbers. That is when I start to suspect that they only do a more detailed inference with past data. That, I MY OPINION, would explain why the leaks took some time to be... leaked.

Those french numbers could be right or more right than the general opinion I´ve been reading there.

You keep saying a lot but not really saying anything. More so, you are making really simple things complicated.

This is how the NPD "leaks" work. Creamsugar or aquamarine never really directly come out nd give exact numbers. They however always make inferences. They do this by making a an unmarked pie chart in which case there is usually always supportive facts to help everyone else figure out the numbers for themselves. Facts like sony annoucing that they sold the most consoles for the month and usually nintendo giving out their own exact numbers. Then using that info and the chart its just simple math and substitution to figure out the value of every segent of the chart. Not complicated at all.

The problem is that they do not give this chart or whatever wierd way they post to point people in the right direction of actual numbers till way deep in the thread. usually after over 500 posts. But during these times they may leak out extremly obscure snippets of information that wall put people in a ball park figure of the actual numbers. If you take the ball part estimates and ignore the actual estimates then the mistake is all yours. Case in point, look at this NPD, at one point the common belief was that PS4 was as high as 570k. Then that numebr went down to 550k and now its settled and confirmed at 538k.

Either way, you cannot keep dismissing numbers and calling out everyone when you simply have nothing concrete to back your reasons. Its even more silly to doubt the posters on gaf cause unlike other forums, if you spread fud over there you get banned.

But why are we even talking about all this, if I have any problem with you is that I know for a fact from some of your previous posts that you have even gone as far as discredit the reliability of NPD numbers andeven went as far as call or rather suggest that sony were lying about their 10M number simply cause they didnt announce it when you thought they should. And why all this is tiring and annoying, is that we can all pretty much bet our kidneys that if it were the XB1 that were winning these NPD or VGC numbers.. you wouldn't be here trying to discredit everyone and everything.



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Good thread this one. :)

Does depend what you are looking for to a degree, not going to suit everyone.

I was looking for the drama.

 



Dark_Feanor said:
mornelithe said:

Ok, so now I guess I'm having trouble understanding how a consolidation 'opinion' (which comes across as, not derived from NPD, but personal analysis), reflects poorly on the known quantities at Gaf, who leak NPD information (Aqua/CreamSugar etc...)?  You're going to have to explain this to me a bit more for me to understand the angle you're coming from.  I would imagine that not everyone who is a member of Gaf, has access to NPD, so much like VGChartz, some folks may simply see trends and try to extrapolate margins from there (using their whatever resources they have available)?  Again, I'm just kind of confused, because opinion doesn't suggest that it's set in stone??  Sorry for being dense about this.


So, as I understand the general Gaf opinion is based on the Aqua/Cream leaks over the months. It´s a little hard to find their posts on those threads, as it is restricted to registered members.

It would probaly easier find their numbers here... I will check.

Any way, my point is that there are contradition from each different leaker, eventhough they make a effort to "consolidate" their numbers. That is when I start to suspect that they only do a more detailed inference with past data. That, I MY OPINION, would explain why the leaks took some time to be... leaked.

Those french numbers could be right or more right than the general opinion I´ve been reading there.

Ok, so now that you've seen a couple responses from folks more in the know than I, such as Arkaign's reponse (see below).  Does the amount of time it takes for leaks to occur make sense, given NPD is a paid for set of data, and that they can't just give the information out, and why when the information is leaked, it usually starts as total revenue hardware/software, then a pie chart, then your % > < lists etc...?  If they just give it out, these folks will get in trouble, and without them, getting our hands on the numbers would be dramatically more difficult.

"He's not understanding. There are multiple gaffers with explicit access to NPD numbers, but they can't just put them out there in plain text, they have to obfuscate a bit. That's why you see graphs, yes/no answers, etc. 


The final consensus is always solid though, and you would get banned to the moon for lying about the numbers. But instead of "124k" for an item, you might get ">120 and <130" Etc. 

Basically you have a lock within a scant % on everything major on a reliable basis. Some months are extra tough due to the most connected leakers being careful or taking their sweet time with it."



vivster said:
Slarvax said:
vivster said:
Am I reading correctly that Wii U is down 8% from last September? How is that even possible? Don't see any big releases last year except W101.

WWHD bundle and price drop.

Hm... fair enough I guess. Though one might think that 2014 Wii U with its newfound attention should be able to easily outsell last years "selling like a dead rock" Wii U.

Doest help the wiiU that this year it has competition from the PS4 and XB1. 



Intrinsic said:

Doest help the wiiU that this year it has competition from the PS4 and XB1.

Wait what?^^

Since when do those system share the same market demographic?

And how do you explain that the sales of the Wii U increased after the release of the new consoles while selling nothing in the year before?



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