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mornelithe on 17 October 2014
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Dark_Feanor said:
mornelithe said:

Ok, so now I guess I'm having trouble understanding how a consolidation 'opinion' (which comes across as, not derived from NPD, but personal analysis), reflects poorly on the known quantities at Gaf, who leak NPD information (Aqua/CreamSugar etc...)?  You're going to have to explain this to me a bit more for me to understand the angle you're coming from.  I would imagine that not everyone who is a member of Gaf, has access to NPD, so much like VGChartz, some folks may simply see trends and try to extrapolate margins from there (using their whatever resources they have available)?  Again, I'm just kind of confused, because opinion doesn't suggest that it's set in stone??  Sorry for being dense about this.


So, as I understand the general Gaf opinion is based on the Aqua/Cream leaks over the months. It´s a little hard to find their posts on those threads, as it is restricted to registered members.

It would probaly easier find their numbers here... I will check.

Any way, my point is that there are contradition from each different leaker, eventhough they make a effort to "consolidate" their numbers. That is when I start to suspect that they only do a more detailed inference with past data. That, I MY OPINION, would explain why the leaks took some time to be... leaked.

Those french numbers could be right or more right than the general opinion I´ve been reading there.

Ok, so now that you've seen a couple responses from folks more in the know than I, such as Arkaign's reponse (see below).  Does the amount of time it takes for leaks to occur make sense, given NPD is a paid for set of data, and that they can't just give the information out, and why when the information is leaked, it usually starts as total revenue hardware/software, then a pie chart, then your % > < lists etc...?  If they just give it out, these folks will get in trouble, and without them, getting our hands on the numbers would be dramatically more difficult.

"He's not understanding. There are multiple gaffers with explicit access to NPD numbers, but they can't just put them out there in plain text, they have to obfuscate a bit. That's why you see graphs, yes/no answers, etc. 


The final consensus is always solid though, and you would get banned to the moon for lying about the numbers. But instead of "124k" for an item, you might get ">120 and <130" Etc. 

Basically you have a lock within a scant % on everything major on a reliable basis. Some months are extra tough due to the most connected leakers being careful or taking their sweet time with it."