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Forums - Sales Discussion - Holiday Prediction Sales for Xb1, PS4, WiiU

DolPhanTendo said:
PS4:
Oct; 1.9 million
Nov. 1.8 million
Dec. 2.1 million

XBONE:
Oct. 650,000
Nov. 600,000
Dec. 1.3 Million

WIIU:
Oct. 300,000
Nov. 1.8 Million
Dec. 4.2 Million

Uhhh wow. 



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

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PS4:

oct: 1m
nov: 3m
dec: 3.5m

Xbone:
oct: 500k
nov: 1.5m
dec: 1.9m

WiiU:
oct: 200k
nov: 1m
dec: 1.3m



EDITED VERSION:

PS4:

OCT: 1.5M

NOV: 2.5M

DEC: 2.8M

Total :6.8

Wii U:

OCT: 500k

NOV:900k

DEC: 1.1M

Total :2.5M

Xbox One:

OCT: 500k

NOV: 700k

DEC: 900k

Total :2.1M



ps4 xb1 wiiu user
6.2m 3.5m 2.4m Ka-pi96 
7.5m 2.9m 3.2m drake_tolu 
5.8m 4.1m 1.55m NobleTeam360 
6m 3.9m 3.2m fleischr 
5.8m 3.1m 2.35m Mummelmann
5.85m 3.9m 2m Welfare
6.7m 3.63m 2.6m Xevross
6.5m 3.95m 2.1m OfficerRaichu15 
5.5m 3.1m 2.15m Intrinsic 
5.85m 3.45m 3.37m tak13
5m 3.3m 2.4m Landguy 
6.5m 4.5m 1.7m fluky-nintendy
7.3m 4.1m 3.6m JustBeingReal 
5.8m 2.55m 6.3m DolPhanTendo 
7.5m 3.9m 2.5m Turkish 
7.4m 5.1m 2.9m Wazowski 
6.8m 1.8m 2m GoldenTriforce

here some totals of the users that already predicted (it's on first page too)



drake_tolu said:
Welfare said:

Well I already have my predictions for the NPD threads, sooo...

Month PS4 Xbox One Wii U
October 345,000 310,000 56,000
November 829,000 784,000 261,000
December 1,064,000 952,000 432,000

My NPD prediction:

Month
October 400K 250K 110K
November 900K 750K 450K
December 1.8M 1M 800K


What in October is going to make the Wii U go over 100k? We already saw what Bayonetta did HW wise, and it was very little. November also seems very high, even for a holiday month. MK8 has already shown us that not many people will be buying Wii U's for 1st party software, so Smash won't do that much. Even with Black Friday, 450k is way too much. Same basically applies to December. Too much.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

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Shadow1980 said:
Since Q4 sales are generally about 50% of the sales of a year, give or take a few percent, I'm going to go with this:

PS4: 7 million
XBO: 2.5 million (slightly less than Q1-Q3 sales as launches in Tier 2 skewed Q3 sales a bit high)
Wii U: 2.25 million (Smash boost + Nintendo tends to average a better percentage of yearly sales in Q4)

I'm not going to bother with each month. Too many variables.

You excpect PS4 to almost tripple Wii U and Xbone sales??



PS4
Oct: 800k
Nov: 2m
Dec: 2.7m

Xbox One (exluding china btw)
Oct: 400k
Nov: 800k
Dec: 1.6m

Wii U
Oct: 200k
Nov: 1m
Dec: 2m



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For comparison's sake, here's last year.

October
Wii U: 178,154
November
Wii U: 541,603
PS4: 2,106,006
XB1: 1,555,693
December
Wii U: 1,025,050
PS4: 2,052,422
XB1: 1,285,762



fluky-nintendy said:
My bets:
Wii U-
Oct: 330k
Nov: 670k
Dec: 700k


You honestly expect this to be less than last year?



I have no idea how anyone can possibly expect the X1 to do more than 3 .5 million (and even then that's pushing it). Console normally do about as well in those three months than they do the rest of the year, no?

In this case, I expect the PS4 will get quite a boost, and it won't face supply constraints as serious as last year. By this reasoning, I think it'll do all around much better than Nov/Dec last year (plus it's out in a lot more countries). It'll do at least 6 million, and at most 7.5 across the 3 months.

The X1, I think, will definitely do worse than last year during launch. I've no idea why people think it'll suddenly come back from the dead. Aggressive bundles and the MCC will help it do better in NA/UK than it did last year, but that will offset by terrible performance everywhere else in the world (there won't be any launch hype this time so all those regions will remain dead to it). I think it'll do about 2.8 million, maybe 3 if it get's lucky.

Sure, you could argue that the 360 normally got bigger boosts but then it'd be simple to state that the reason for that was it's dominance in NA, which is no longer the case. We have to move forward and accept the new state of affairs.

The Wii U is pretty tough to predict. With Smash and Amiibos launching, Nintendo has a shot at a good boost but I think they will still flounder. 2.3-2.5 million is my estimate.

So, in conclusion:

PS4:

October: 1.2 million

November: 2.4 million

December: 2.9 million

X1:

October: 550k

November: 1.2 million

December: 1.3 million

Wii U:

October: 450k

November: 800k

December: 1 million

 

While I see a lot of people arguing otherwise, I think the PS4 will have a far bigger boost and a monster holiday season. People talk about the stronger MS library but there really isn't one (a new game from a mediocre developer and a collection of older remastered titles). Nintendo has Smash and Amiibos, but Amiibos will be niche and Smash will do well, just not as well as Nintendo needs it to do (at least, system selling wise). 

Sony only has LBP, but here's the thing, they don't actually need anything else. Secure a GTAV bundle and that'll be that for the Holidays. Heck, they don't even need to do any bundles and they'll still easily win by a landslide.