I have no idea how anyone can possibly expect the X1 to do more than 3 .5 million (and even then that's pushing it). Console normally do about as well in those three months than they do the rest of the year, no?
In this case, I expect the PS4 will get quite a boost, and it won't face supply constraints as serious as last year. By this reasoning, I think it'll do all around much better than Nov/Dec last year (plus it's out in a lot more countries). It'll do at least 6 million, and at most 7.5 across the 3 months.
The X1, I think, will definitely do worse than last year during launch. I've no idea why people think it'll suddenly come back from the dead. Aggressive bundles and the MCC will help it do better in NA/UK than it did last year, but that will offset by terrible performance everywhere else in the world (there won't be any launch hype this time so all those regions will remain dead to it). I think it'll do about 2.8 million, maybe 3 if it get's lucky.
Sure, you could argue that the 360 normally got bigger boosts but then it'd be simple to state that the reason for that was it's dominance in NA, which is no longer the case. We have to move forward and accept the new state of affairs.
The Wii U is pretty tough to predict. With Smash and Amiibos launching, Nintendo has a shot at a good boost but I think they will still flounder. 2.3-2.5 million is my estimate.
So, in conclusion:
PS4:
October: 1.2 million
November: 2.4 million
December: 2.9 million
X1:
October: 550k
November: 1.2 million
December: 1.3 million
Wii U:
October: 450k
November: 800k
December: 1 million
While I see a lot of people arguing otherwise, I think the PS4 will have a far bigger boost and a monster holiday season. People talk about the stronger MS library but there really isn't one (a new game from a mediocre developer and a collection of older remastered titles). Nintendo has Smash and Amiibos, but Amiibos will be niche and Smash will do well, just not as well as Nintendo needs it to do (at least, system selling wise).
Sony only has LBP, but here's the thing, they don't actually need anything else. Secure a GTAV bundle and that'll be that for the Holidays. Heck, they don't even need to do any bundles and they'll still easily win by a landslide.
