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Forums - Sales - XOne vs. Wii U vs. Vita in the race to 10m

 

What will hit 10m first?

XOne - Hail to the Chief!!! 255 32.48%
 
Wii U - Its-a me Mario!!! 289 36.82%
 
Vita - already sooo close!!! 173 22.04%
 
I like chicken, I like li... 66 8.41%
 
Total:783
prinz_valium on 05 October 2014
ICStats said:
prinz_valium said:
ICStats said:
Globally, PSV is doing similar numbers to 2013. In 2013 it did around 1.5M between Oct-Dec. Based on that I'd say it has a chance to reach 10M by end of the year so I pick Vita as hitting 10M first.

Another way to look at it is estimate that half of yearly sales are the holidays, so estimates by end of the year:

1st PSV 1.51 * 2 + 7.36 =10.38M
2nd Wii U 1.84 * 2 + 5.42 = 9.10M
3rd XB1 2.44 * 2 + 3.06 = 7.94M

 

historically xbox has the biggest holiday bump if u compare to the whole year sales

 

http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php

I calculated these for X360, Oct-Dec as % of whole year:

  2006 - 48%
  2007 - 51%
  2011 - 53%
  2012 - 54%

So nah, I don't think Santa Clause is going to bring a ton more XB1s than my estimate.

- Wii U was heavily back loaded last year, selling 56% in Oct-Dec but this year is likely more front loaded with MK8.
- Vita last year sold 47% in Oct-Dec.
So I feel fairly good about the rough estimate above.  Even if you put the best 54% for XB1 it is still just 8.36M.

yes, x360 did 50-55% of ytd in the 3 holiday month

the first vita year was only 38,5%

 

first full year is always kind of "off"

x360 only one below 50% as example..

 

 

but as u see 10% is a big difference.

if xbox in general sell 55% of its units in holiday season

but wii and ps only 45% its kind of a big difference

 

 

but if we talk about really rough estimates, 2* is not the worst multiplier

edit: but ur number still miss the last september sales ;)



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fatslob-:O on 05 October 2014
Namiirei said:

Not the same game, it's only a poor version for handheld console.

If we go like that, the only exclusive others consoles got are driveclub and Sunset overdrive;

That's not what the japanese think ... They're practically the same games for all intents and purposes. The only differences are aside from visuals are trophies and gameplay modes exclusive to the 3DS so what else isn't the same about them ?

Just because those are the only exclusives that are coming out on the HD twins for the rest of this year doesn't mean that there are no other big games coming out of both of them. The PS4/X1 are getting big third party titles to sell their consoles whereas the WII U is getting a 3DS port of Smash ... 



mii-gamer on 05 October 2014

taged



benji232 on 05 October 2014
S.T.A.G.E. said:
benji232 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:


I just cannot see the Wii U outselling the Xbone this holiday season or reaching 10 M by this holiday season.

It doesn't need to outsell Xb1 to reach 10m units first. And it has more then a fair chance to reach 10m this holiday season. I don't know why so many people have trouble seeing this. It's currently at roughly 2.9m units away from 10m. Last year, it sold 1.5m units in November+December on the back of SM3DW, a much smaller IP (Sales wise) then smash bros. This year, we've got Mario kart 8 and smash bros. . How is it so hard to imagine that it can sell 2.5m-3m units between october-november-december?

It took the Wii U 2 years to sell 7 million (8-8.5 M by years end most likely). It took the Xbox One less than a year to sell over five million. By the year mark they most likely would've sold 6 million consoles. This holiday season the Xbone for sure is going to be around 7-7.5 million consoles sold (or more) and will surpass the Wii U by Q2. Its not going to beat the Xbone to 10 million based on sheer speed and larger audience draw power.

So you're saying that wiiU will have a much worst holiday season then last year with Mario kart 8, Smash and Amiibo? Lol, okay. To me, it only sounds like you refuse to believe that it's truely a possibility that wiiU will indeed reach 10m before XB1 even without outselling it.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

megaman79 on 05 October 2014

Wii U easily. But who the fuck knows whats going through the minds of Nintendo Marketers, because they should be selling the shit out of Mario Kart 8 and Smash Wii U, and Captain Toad US for 2 months straight into December.

 

As for XB360 sales predicting the future of Xbone Sales, well obviously the Wii U will match Wii's 2nd Christmas too, OH JOY!

 



“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.

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prinz_valium on 05 October 2014
ICStats said:
Globally, PSV is doing similar numbers to 2013. In 2013 it did around 1.5M between Oct-Dec. Based on that I'd say it has a chance to reach 10M by end of the year so I pick Vita as hitting 10M first.

Another way to look at it is estimate that half of yearly sales are the holidays, so estimates by end of the year:

1st PSV 1.51 * 2 + 7.36 =10.38M
2nd Wii U 1.84 * 2 + 5.42 = 9.10M
3rd XB1 2.44 * 2 + 3.06 = 7.94M

 

PSV: 1.55 * 1.85 = 2.85 + 7.35 = 10.2M

WiiU: 1.95 * 1.9 = 3.7 + 5.4 = 9.1M

XB1: 2.70 * 2.1 =  5.7 +3.05  = 8.75M

 

that would be my guess to fit it more



Nettles on 05 October 2014

smash will easily push wiiu past 10 this christmas.Vita next, xbone by feb next year.



S.T.A.G.E. on 05 October 2014
benji232 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

It took the Wii U 2 years to sell 7 million (8-8.5 M by years end most likely). It took the Xbox One less than a year to sell over five million. By the year mark they most likely would've sold 6 million consoles. This holiday season the Xbone for sure is going to be around 7-7.5 million consoles sold (or more) and will surpass the Wii U by Q2. Its not going to beat the Xbone to 10 million based on sheer speed and larger audience draw power.

So you're saying that wiiU will have a much worst holiday season then last year with Mario kart 8, Smash and Amiibo? Lol, okay. To me, it only sounds like you refuse to believe that it's truely a possibility that wiiU will indeed reach 10m before XB1 even without outselling it.


Contrary. I am saying they will do well compared to the rest of the year, but of the two Microsoft is much stronger at 4th quarter sales. That is the pretty much the only time I would truly fear Microsoft if I was competing against them.

Nintendo did not take advantage of their head start and first year AAA drought for the PS4 and Xbox One. Its going to get worse, trust me. 



ICStats on 05 October 2014
prinz_valium said:
ICStats said:
Globally, PSV is doing similar numbers to 2013. In 2013 it did around 1.5M between Oct-Dec. Based on that I'd say it has a chance to reach 10M by end of the year so I pick Vita as hitting 10M first.

Another way to look at it is estimate that half of yearly sales are the holidays, so estimates by end of the year:

1st PSV 1.51 * 2 + 7.36 =10.38M
2nd Wii U 1.84 * 2 + 5.42 = 9.10M
3rd XB1 2.44 * 2 + 3.06 = 7.94M

 

PSV: 1.55 * 1.85 = 2.85 + 7.35 = 10.2M

WiiU: 1.95 * 1.9 = 3.7 + 5.4 = 9.1M

XB1: 2.70 * 2.1 =  5.7 +3.05  = 8.75M

 

that would be my guess to fit it more

Sounds reasonable enough.  I do think XB1 will get a good boost.  Titles are strong, and MS is going to be aggressive with deals IMO.

Here are numbers with 50 +/- 3% ranges:

 Vita 10.2~10.4M
 Wii U 8.9~9.4M
 XB1 7.7~8.3M

Either way my money would be on Vita getting to 10M first.



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benji232 on 05 October 2014
S.T.A.G.E. said:
benji232 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

It took the Wii U 2 years to sell 7 million (8-8.5 M by years end most likely). It took the Xbox One less than a year to sell over five million. By the year mark they most likely would've sold 6 million consoles. This holiday season the Xbone for sure is going to be around 7-7.5 million consoles sold (or more) and will surpass the Wii U by Q2. Its not going to beat the Xbone to 10 million based on sheer speed and larger audience draw power.

So you're saying that wiiU will have a much worst holiday season then last year with Mario kart 8, Smash and Amiibo? Lol, okay. To me, it only sounds like you refuse to believe that it's truely a possibility that wiiU will indeed reach 10m before XB1 even without outselling it.


Contrary. I am saying they will do well compared to the rest of the year, but of the two Microsoft is much stronger at 4th quarter sales. That is the pretty much the only time I would truly fear Microsoft if I was competing against them.

Nintendo did not take advantage of their head start and first year AAA drought for the PS4 and Xbox One. Its going to get worse, trust me. 

I never argued that Microsoft would enjoy much stronger sales in Q4 (even though that remains to be seen honnestly) . However, you said that wiiU will have sold by the end of 2014 a maximum of 8.5m units. It's currently at around 7M units. Last year, it sold 1.6m units in November+December. So I'm asking you this, are you expecting wiiU to have a better or worst holiday season then last year now that Mario kart 8 is out and with the releases of Smash and Amiibo? As I said, it's far from an impossibility that wiiU reaches 10M units by the end of 2014. 



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M