XOne vs. Wii U vs. Vita in the race to 10m

[prinz_valium]

ICStats said:

prinz_valium said:

ICStats said:
Globally, PSV is doing similar numbers to 2013. In 2013 it did around 1.5M between Oct-Dec. Based on that I'd say it has a chance to reach 10M by end of the year so I pick Vita as hitting 10M first.

Another way to look at it is estimate that half of yearly sales are the holidays, so estimates by end of the year:

1st PSV 1.51 * 2 + 7.36 =10.38M
2nd Wii U 1.84 * 2 + 5.42 = 9.10M
3rd XB1 2.44 * 2 + 3.06 = 7.94M

 

historically xbox has the biggest holiday bump if u compare to the whole year sales

 

http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php

I calculated these for X360, Oct-Dec as % of whole year:

  2006 - 48%
  2007 - 51%
  2011 - 53%
  2012 - 54%

So nah, I don't think Santa Clause is going to bring a ton more XB1s than my estimate.

- Wii U was heavily back loaded last year, selling 56% in Oct-Dec but this year is likely more front loaded with MK8.

- Vita last year sold 47% in Oct-Dec.

So I feel fairly good about the rough estimate above.  Even if you put the best 54% for XB1 it is still just 8.36M.

yes, x360 did 50-55% of ytd in the 3 holiday month

the first vita year was only 38,5%

 

first full year is always kind of "off"

x360 only one below 50% as example..

 

 

but as u see 10% is a big difference.

if xbox in general sell 55% of its units in holiday season

but wii and ps only 45% its kind of a big difference

 

 

but if we talk about really rough estimates, 2* is not the worst multiplier

edit: but ur number still miss the last september sales ;)