So will Splatoon be delayed? And Mario Party, and Yoshi, and Xenoblade, Kirby, Mario Maker, and Star Fox? Might as well throw Devil's Third in there since Nintendo's name is on it.

You have singled out Zelda for no reason other than because you feel like it will be delayed.

Some of those games may well be delayed, yes.

I've singled out Zelda because of the demanding nature of the project and the fact that last console games in the series suffered delays.

At this point I simply don't think you understand what a development schedule is, what a projected release window is, or why delays happen in the first place. Nintendo can say any date they want. They could have said the game will release tomorrow, or that it will release in ten years. And if they said ten years you'd probably be here saying that it'll be eleven years because Zelda often suffers delays. Your logic is literally "No matter what release window Nintendo gives for Zelda, they are wrong, because they underestimate the development time of their own games and pass that misinformation on to us." With no knowledge of how far along in development this game is, or how long the team has already properly been working on it, or whether or not the game has already been delayed internally before being given a public release window (which I have presented evidence to suggest is the case). The only thing you know about this game is that Nintendo says it's coming in 2015, and therefore, according to you, it is not coming in 2015.

Focus on a game we actually know something about, like Star Fox. I think it's hilarious that they want to ship that game next year.

You're putting words in my mouth. 

If they had given a 2016 window for Zelda, I would have believed them and not expected a delay, because that seems like a realistic target.

We haven't even seen gameplay footage yet, all we have seen is a single in-engine cutscene. We saw gameplay footage of Xenoblade Chronicles X, which is a similarly ambitious and demanding production, as early as January 2013, and it's likely coming out in late 2015.

The last two years have demonstrated that Nintendo's projected release dates are untrustworthy.

Then you still haven't listened to a word I've said. Zelda games have typical dev cycles of three years. None of Nintendo's Wii U games have been pushed back by more than six months. And you are saying you expect Zelda to experience a delay four times that length.

Nintendo can show us anything they want, they frequently show games for the very first time less than a year from release. They did that with Link Between Worlds just last year. Not all game reveals are created equally. Case in point, they flat-out confirmed that they didn't even have anything they could show of Star Fox, yet expect us to believe that's coming next year.

And in fact, they did show more of Zelda than a simple cutscene, because unless you believe that Aonuma has become a Peter Molyneux-tier liar over the years, they showed a massive piece of the game world laid out before you. They showed NPCs and in-game locations visible in the distance. And I can't believe I have to point this out, but it looked a hell of a lot more polished than Xenoblade X looked when they first showed that -- don't act surprised when I tell you that that's because Zelda was closer to release this past E3 than Xenoblade X was last January.

IMHO Nintendo wasted a two good years. Sony and MS are coming with the AAA exclusives next year and there is nothing Nintendo can do to stop it. They will also have wall to wall AAA exclusives in almost every quarter next year from third party. Sorry, but whatever Nintendo does next year will mostly go unnoticed. If they didnt notice Mario Kart and ignore Super Smash, Nintendo will need some big names coming out of E3.

In other words...

Nintendo wasted time and now its time for Sony and MS to blow their load on Nintendo.

The typical dev cycle of an SD Zelda won't be the same as the typical dev cycle of a HD Zelda though.

And Nintendo could still delay less than six months and release it in Q1-Q2 2016, though I suspect if it doesn't make the window they'll still want to push it as a Christmas holiday game, and therefore hang onto it until November 2016.

For a game of this magnitude, I still don't think we've seen enough of it for it to be only a year away. Think of how much of Twilight Princess and Skyward Sword we'd seen 13 months out.

I don't want to argue about it any more. How about a simple bet instead?

Stop saying Zelda is going to be delayed. If it happens it will be your fault and you will pay for that.

I do personally fell that of everything goes right, Wii U could sell better next year compared to this year but everything has to go right.

1. Mario Kart+Smash Bros+Amiibo need to cause enough hype over the holidays to create post-holiday momentum and increase the Wii U Q1 baseline over 2014's Q1.

2. Nintendo needs to have a more spread out schedule of exclusives throughout the year, unlike 2013 & 2014 which had 2-3 major games in the first 8-9 months then loaded the last few months. at least 2 per quarter will suffice.

3. year-round advertising. this kinda goes along with number 2, its hard to advertise all year when there are 3-4 month gaps between major releases. more consistent schedule means more consistant advertising which means more public awareness, at least in theory.

4. price cut. a $50 price cut alongside a Mario Maker bundle around May could really help Wii U match the Mario Kart boost it had this year. also $199 bundles for Black Friday/Christmas would be very attractive.

5. Zelda cannot get delayed and has to be epic. not really much to explain here, it needs to be the big holiday title and has to push hardware.

if all these things happen then I strongly believe Wii U will have its best year in 2015. this is the release schedule I think we can see next year.

February-Yoshi's Woolly World
March-Project Guard
May-Mario Maker+$50 price cut+Mario Kart 8 GOTY edition with all DLC included
June-Platoon
August-Super Mario Sunshine HD
September-Xenoblade chronicles X
October-Devil's Third+Kirby Rainbow Curse
November-Legend of Zelda+Mario Party 10