Its not good numbers considering anything really...Bayo 2 did terribly. I guess I'll fall back on the old "at least those ~30k people will have an awesome game to play", even if it didn't sell well :/

Is possible and i again think this.

Wonderful 101 have sold 5K first week in Japan.

Now, the game have sold 50K.

The game sell 500 on week, so, by end of year, will sell as 65K-70K, and by end of gen will pass 100K.

So, will sell x20 first week.

I don't think that Bayonetta 2 will have the legs for x20 first week, but x10 yes, and if will sell 25,000 first week, will close with 250,000 lifetime (even 300,000).

This in Japan...

Europe: 300,000-400,000

N.Amrica: 400,000-500,000

Rest of World: 100,000-150,000

In the worst scenario 250,000+300,000+400,000+100,000: 1,050,000 !!!

So, i still predict above 1 Million.

The notion that a userbase raised largely on Nintendo's syrupy sweet franchise IP would suddenly turn around and buy a hyper violent action game starring a half naked woman who looks like a stripper is kind of silly to be honest.

Don't get me wrong I applaud them for taking a risk here, but releasing like a ton of Mario/Kirby/Pokemon games and then throwing in a random Bayonetta or Devil's Third once a year is just a strategy doomed to fail. If Nintendo is going to make these games then they need to commit to building an audience for them first. 

Nintendo's core IP are so tame in their content that even Disney movies would make Mario/Link blush ... the idea of Zelda making out with Link is a no-no in Zelda games, but it's common in even kids animated films.

Nintendo needs to figure out what Disney did a long time ago ... first off they allowed edgier humor/content into their main animated films.

Secondly Disney realized the power of having movie franchises that appeal strongly to the male teenager/adult which still is family friendly enough to work with kids too ... the Pirates franchise, Marvel/Avengers/Iron Man, and Star Wars are today's "family films" not Mickey Mouse. Theses are properties that legitimately appeal to every member of the family from age 7-50+. 

Nintendo needs something like that, something that's more neutral, the jump from Kirby/Mario/Pikachu to Bayonetta is just too steep of a demographic shift, Nintendo needs something more in the middle ... James Bond filled that role perfectly on the N64. That's something an adult could take seriously, while it's not so extremely violent that a kid couldn't play it either. 

Hyrule Warriors isnt doing to shabbily, its very edgy for a Zelda game so maybe Nintendo might do more of this type of stuff?

Hyrule Warriors isn't exactly doing great either per se. 

Nintendo basically conceeded the entire teen/young adult male gamer demographic to Sony/MS during the Wii era, now it's kinda coming back to haunt them because there is no audience left for these types of games and they're stuck with a very narrow fanbase that buys only Mario/Pokemon games. 

Even there things like Pikmin 3, DKC, aren't really selling what they should. 

I think what they should do is genuinely study Marvel Comics ... they have the magic formula of being able to appeal to kids, while still having sky high appeal with adults. That's the sweet spot, but I think Nintendo's leadership is completely oblvious to this, they're way to Japanese centric to understand what's happening to their brand. 

Nintendo/Iwata/Miyamoto still believe that "family entertainment" means something akin to Mickey Mouse as the gold standard, when in reality today it's really more like Iron Man/Wolverine. Disney doesn't even use Mickey for much anymore, no one over the age of 14 is going to see a Mickey Mouse movie.

well, you've got a point, the same thing happened with many Wii games, and while it cannot fix a flop it makes things ''not as bad''

I hope it is the case, of coure it is not as simple, and yet developers won't get much if people get the game after price drops :/

Bayonetta 2 was costed 25 million.

The game cost 60$, but only half of price will be to Nintendo.

I predict that the game will sell 500,000 this year, so, 30x500,000= 15 million.

Will sell othe 500,000-700,000 with a price of 40$ first 2-3 year, and less than 30€ after 4-5 year.

So, i think that the game can make other 10 million for a total of 25 million.

I don't think it will hit even 500k LTD. 

It doesn't really matter if it breaks even or not, Nintendo has more than enough money for this to be a non-issue. 

When they greenlit Bayo 2 that was before the Wii U launched and obviously they were expecting a userbase probably at least half of the original Wii (around 50 million), they weren't anticipating the console itself being a flop, which it has been. 

I think Nintendo almost partly finances a lot of these games as a sense of civic duty to the Japanese game development community as it were ... I think they know part of the time anyway that these games aren't going to break even. They can't seriously think Devil's Third for example is going to sell a lot, but I think they did it because Itagaki is well known Japanese designer who was down on his luck and Nintendo decided to throw him a few bucks so he could finish his game. 

can't you read the thread? It's one day sale.