| QuintonMcLeod said:
Here is my point:
1 day worth of sales isn't enough to determine the success or failure of a game.
|
So we're back to this again.
I understand where you're coming from. We live in a world where nothing is certain. Anything can happen. Games can go on to become massive smash hits when no-one expects it; they can have unexpected second week sales; games can be pulled from the shelves and sell 0 copies by the third week.
And in that respect, sure, anything can happen.
But barring divine intervention, most of us here who visit these threads regularly use sales trends; past information and various other factors to extrapolate what sales are going to be for a game. Yes, there's exceptions here and there like Youkai Watch which defy expectations and go on to sell bucket loads. They're less than 1% of all the games you see. The other > 99% of titles follow exactly the same sales curve that you'd expect based on their genre; console; marketing etc.
So what you're effectively telling everyone here is: "Hey, there's a 0.1% chance that Bayonetta 2 could be the game that bucks the trend, so you can't call it a bomb yet!"
If you want to have faith in that very small percentage, then go ahead. But I have to ask: what is your faith based on? What factors do you foresee in Bayonetta 2's future that would make the game so different than everything else similar to it that it's going to defy sales curves and logic?
Even Youkai Watch, your main point of argument at the moment, had an anime that we knew about when the game released. No-one could've forseen what a massive success it would turn out to be, but at least it was a factor that could have done something to change its sales trajectory.
Based on everything we know about Bayonetta 2 - its genre; the fact it's full of fanservice; the fact it's a sequel - indicate that it's going to fit into the 99.9% bracket rather than the 0.1%. The best comparison you can draw - Wonderful 101 (a Platinum Games developed title published by Nintendo exclusively for WiiU) - performed similarly.
To finish this off, I would genuinely like to know what it is that you think is going to change Bayonetta's fate in Japan. It had a DVD release about 2 months ago, that sold about ~ 20k copies (iirc). There's no anime planned. There's very few similar titles planned for WiiU (Devil's Third and...?) I'm genuinely struggling to think of anything that could remotely boost it by a few thousand; let alone the ~ 100k or so that would be needed to turn it into a success.
