Bayo > GoW, both gameplaywise AND storywise.

Kratos has a dull personality and is extremely predictable. He hates, thats it.
It was fun the first time, but after that he just bored me.

@OP
For me:
-SMB U
-Child of Light
-DA:I
-Bayo 2
-Dark Souls 2

Safe bet:
-Not a Nintendo game
-Can't have a high difficulty curve (Good bye Dark Souls 2)
-Can't be japanese (Bayo 2 is out)
-Can't be a PC exclusive (Good bye Divinity)
-Can't be a sports or driving game (See you later MK8, DriveClub, Forza)
-Can't be a handheld or mobile game (Sorry Pokemon, Bravely Default))
-Can't be a iterative sequel (Unity/Far Cry 4 out)
-Can't be a Indie (Good bye to some of the best games of the year)
- 90+ Meta Score

So, this year we won't have a GOTY at all it seems

Even years tend to be pretty shitty, for some reason. 2012 was also terrible.

Also, am I the only one who thinks Shadow of Mordor has the possibility of surprising people?

Meh, I don't really agree with these rules. We rarely see GOTY going to these kinds of games, but that's only because they come out in great years. Demon's Souls was up against Uncharted 2, A Link Between Worlds against TLOU, and etc.

And 2012 saw a point-and-click of all things winning GOTY (with an indie being its best competitor, so...). It's a weak year, anything can happen

GOW >> Bayonetta, both storywise and gameplaywise.

GOW has a great narrative, variety in combat, epic sense of scale, intense atmosphere, great enemy designs and amazing boss fights. Bayonetta doesn't even come close. Heck, even Platinum's own Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance is better than Bayonetta.

If people still count TLOU:R than will more than likely win. A 95 Meta is going to really tough to beat especially this year.

Could be this the year of a racing game? I think it can, at least the chancess are trere: Mario Kart, Driveclub, Forza Horizon, The Crew (its out this year, cant remember?) and Project Cars. Im not a fan of the genere but its look possible.

Definitely will not be LBP3 that one will probably not be as good as the first two since its developed by a different developer hope that, that developer does a good job with the 360 version of Horizon 2 though.

No one has played either B2 or LBP3..................... So, yeh, thats that.

From what I've played so far, Mario Kart 8 or Divinity: Original Sin would be excellent contenders. I also hope Far Cry and Super Smash will be up there as well as I have high hopes for them.

No, VGA is shit. It goes to which ever game won the most game of the year awards from each site.