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Forums - Sales - Xbox One is Closing the Gap Homie

greenmedic88 said:

Ultimately, it's all revenue for a company, regardless of where it's coming from based upon a company's business model.

For Nintendo, they don't sell hardware at or below cost, so every sale is profit earned. Of course their internally developed and published IPs are responsible for generating a significant portion of overall revenue and profit. Add merchandising to those IPs and they have a pretty healthy business model, even if it's not based upon high growth.

It's understood by all that the key advantage to producing and selling a proprietary gaming platform is to generate licensing revenue from developers, simply for the privilege of being able to publish on that platform, and this is the only real area in which Nintendo's business suffers from the standpoint of what they could be generating. 

But Nintendo has always been the fiercest competitor on their own hardware platforms for third party developers and publishers, to the point where some developers who can't find a profitable sub-niche market within the Nintendo market choose to skip the Wii U altogether. It's not "lazy developers" or "anti-Nintendo bias," there are simply a lot of instances of publishers who have been unable to generate sufficient profit by releasing their games on Nintendo consoles relative to Sony or MS consoles to offset the added cost of developing and publishing on a riskier, lower potential yield platform. 

So Nintendo has to get by with less 3rd party support and their business model should reflect that, leaving the market for their hardware smaller, but still profitable and still large enough for continued support. 


Makes sense. And I hope it is true, cause I am so in love with my WiiU.



My grammar errors are justified by the fact that I am a brazilian living in Brazil. I am also very stupid.

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greenmedic88 said:

Ultimately, it's all revenue for a company, regardless of where it's coming from based upon a company's business model.

For Nintendo, they don't sell hardware at or below cost, so every sale is profit earned. Of course their internally developed and published IPs are responsible for generating a significant portion of overall revenue and profit. Add merchandising to those IPs and they have a pretty healthy business model, even if it's not based upon high growth.

It's understood by all that the key advantage to producing and selling a proprietary gaming platform is to generate licensing revenue from developers, simply for the privilege of being able to publish on that platform, and this is the only real area in which Nintendo's business suffers from the standpoint of what they could be generating. 

But Nintendo has always been the fiercest competitor on their own hardware platforms for third party developers and publishers, to the point where some developers who can't find a profitable sub-niche market within the Nintendo market choose to skip the Wii U altogether. It's not "lazy developers" or "anti-Nintendo bias," there are simply a lot of instances of publishers who have been unable to generate sufficient profit by releasing their games on Nintendo consoles relative to Sony or MS consoles to offset the added cost of developing and publishing on a riskier, lower potential yield platform. 

So Nintendo has to get by with less 3rd party support and their business model should reflect that, leaving the market for their hardware smaller, but still profitable and still large enough for continued support. 

It's not that simple... every hardware & software may generate a gross profit for Nintendo, but like any company they have expenses paying for their staff, their facilities, purchases and other operating costs.  It's not enough to make a gross profit on everything they sell; they have to sell enough products to turn an operating profit, so the size of the market is very important.

So far market for 3DS + Wii U hasn't been enough to make profits.



My 8th gen collection

DonFerrari said:
Norris2k said:
DonFerrari said:
Norris2k said:

1.8 millions more sales for the XOne within 4 months means 450K more a month, which means 120K more a week. Which means the Wii U has to stop selling, and the XBox has to increase its sales by 140% (x2.4) right now and for the 4 months to come. I say that's a fanboy dream and that even the low probability of an increased gap is higher than that.


The Sales rise a lot going from Sep to Dec... so the 500k montlhy in average is possible, but that above WiiU is insane dream from Toastie.

Ok, I can't tell 500K sales is not gonna happen, even if I think it's really a lot, it's possible. To make a better picture, I should have assumed minimal sales for the Wii U rather than 0 sale.

Well I also don´t think X1 will have 500k for September... or that it will sell 2.8M more than WiiU until the end of the year... as a rule of thumbs from some people here... you pick YTD for the first 8-9 months and multiply for something like 1,5-2,5x (more towards 2) and that will be the sale of the last 3-4 months... So that would mean X1 (having sold something less than 1M more than WiiU so far this year) could sell something like 1,5M to 2,5M more than WiiU, I would bet more towards the low end. that would have X1 and WiiU virtually tied at the end of the year.

I'm a lot more pessimistic about the XOne, because I doubt this rule of thumb fully applies here, I mean this year, for the XOne and the Wii U. This average sales for 9 month is massively based on the few first months of the year, when the XOne was still in its 6 months from launch (and it was a good launch), the PS4 was still in shortage, and the Wii U seemed to be doomed to die.

This average for 9 months totally ignores the current trend, because the average doesn't change so much if it happens for a period where sales are low : currently, the Wii U is comming back and selling more for a few weeks (months ?), and the XOne is having low sales, making them even in sales. Why should the sales to come reproduce the very specific pattern of the post-launch period rather than the current trend ? I think that's one of the reason why the boost can vary greatly around x2, it depends on the dynamic (and shortage) of the console, not just on flat average sales.

Last but not least, the boost can vary greatly not just depending on the year, but also depending on the constructor, and it makes sense to say Nintendo is strong at Christmas sales.



My prediction: X1 maxes out at 7.5m this year, slightly behind Wii U and half of the PS4 in hardware in people's hands.



Norris2k said:
DonFerrari said:
Norris2k said:

Ok, I can't tell 500K sales is not gonna happen, even if I think it's really a lot, it's possible. To make a better picture, I should have assumed minimal sales for the Wii U rather than 0 sale.

Well I also don´t think X1 will have 500k for September... or that it will sell 2.8M more than WiiU until the end of the year... as a rule of thumbs from some people here... you pick YTD for the first 8-9 months and multiply for something like 1,5-2,5x (more towards 2) and that will be the sale of the last 3-4 months... So that would mean X1 (having sold something less than 1M more than WiiU so far this year) could sell something like 1,5M to 2,5M more than WiiU, I would bet more towards the low end. that would have X1 and WiiU virtually tied at the end of the year.

I'm a lot more pessimistic about the XOne, because I doubt this rule of thumb fully applies here, I mean this year, for the XOne and the Wii U. This average sales for 9 month is massively based on the few first months of the year, when the XOne was still in its 6 months from launch (and it was a good launch), the PS4 was still in shortage, and the Wii U seemed to be doomed to die.

This average for 9 months totally ignores the current trend, because the average doesn't change so much if it happens for a period where sales are low : currently, the Wii U is comming back and selling more for a few weeks (months ?), and the XOne is having low sales, making them even in sales. Why should the sales to come reproduce the very specific pattern of the post-launch period rather than the current trend ? I think that's one of the reason why the boost can vary greatly around x2, it depends on the dynamic (and shortage) of the console, not just on flat average sales.

Last but not least, the boost can vary greatly not just depending on the year, but also depending on the constructor, and it makes sense to say Nintendo is strong at Christmas sales.


Yes. I agree with you... for me Ninty would be above 2 (like 2,2) and MS below 2 (like 1,7)... anyway, for me Ninty will be second place for one more year, and perhaps with some luck until the end of the gen.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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WagnerPaiva said:
greenmedic88 said:

Ultimately, it's all revenue for a company, regardless of where it's coming from based upon a company's business model.

For Nintendo, they don't sell hardware at or below cost, so every sale is profit earned. Of course their internally developed and published IPs are responsible for generating a significant portion of overall revenue and profit. Add merchandising to those IPs and they have a pretty healthy business model, even if it's not based upon high growth.

It's understood by all that the key advantage to producing and selling a proprietary gaming platform is to generate licensing revenue from developers, simply for the privilege of being able to publish on that platform, and this is the only real area in which Nintendo's business suffers from the standpoint of what they could be generating. 

But Nintendo has always been the fiercest competitor on their own hardware platforms for third party developers and publishers, to the point where some developers who can't find a profitable sub-niche market within the Nintendo market choose to skip the Wii U altogether. It's not "lazy developers" or "anti-Nintendo bias," there are simply a lot of instances of publishers who have been unable to generate sufficient profit by releasing their games on Nintendo consoles relative to Sony or MS consoles to offset the added cost of developing and publishing on a riskier, lower potential yield platform. 

So Nintendo has to get by with less 3rd party support and their business model should reflect that, leaving the market for their hardware smaller, but still profitable and still large enough for continued support. 


Makes sense. And I hope it is true, cause I am so in love with my WiiU.


Don't worry... they made money on N64 and GC with small HW sales (ok most of the money come from GB), and if played right with most SW selling north of 3M (and they seem to have pretty smaller cost than AAA on PS4/X1) they will surely make money from WiiU... the last 3 years of small loss was reflex of realy small SW sales and HW cost still high... they probably will start to see profit this year forward.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Well looks like they once again damaged their ability to close any gap with their recent desperate ad attempt that was quickly taken down because it infringed on copyrights and breached/overstepped contracts between them and Activision/Bungie and contracts between Activision/Bungie.



http://www.youtube.com/v/AoOOpLpcF28 http://www.youtube.com/v/CphFZGH5030

All Hail the Jester King. The King is back, and I am still a dirty girl prof ;)

2Ultra said:
My prediction: X1 maxes out at 7.5m this year, slightly behind Wii U and half of the PS4 in hardware in people's hands.


2.5 million max in 4 months? 4 holiday months? It'll do that in November+December at the least.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

No. No, they're not. According to VG numbers, and numbers reported elsewhere. Nope.



2Ultra said:
My prediction: X1 maxes out at 7.5m this year, slightly behind Wii U and half of the PS4 in hardware in people's hands.


So you are saying the Wii U will do slightly more than .5 Million in 4 months? And those 4 months include the holidays?