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Norris2k on 05 September 2014
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DonFerrari said:
Norris2k said:
DonFerrari said:
Norris2k said:

1.8 millions more sales for the XOne within 4 months means 450K more a month, which means 120K more a week. Which means the Wii U has to stop selling, and the XBox has to increase its sales by 140% (x2.4) right now and for the 4 months to come. I say that's a fanboy dream and that even the low probability of an increased gap is higher than that.


The Sales rise a lot going from Sep to Dec... so the 500k montlhy in average is possible, but that above WiiU is insane dream from Toastie.

Ok, I can't tell 500K sales is not gonna happen, even if I think it's really a lot, it's possible. To make a better picture, I should have assumed minimal sales for the Wii U rather than 0 sale.

Well I also don´t think X1 will have 500k for September... or that it will sell 2.8M more than WiiU until the end of the year... as a rule of thumbs from some people here... you pick YTD for the first 8-9 months and multiply for something like 1,5-2,5x (more towards 2) and that will be the sale of the last 3-4 months... So that would mean X1 (having sold something less than 1M more than WiiU so far this year) could sell something like 1,5M to 2,5M more than WiiU, I would bet more towards the low end. that would have X1 and WiiU virtually tied at the end of the year.

I'm a lot more pessimistic about the XOne, because I doubt this rule of thumb fully applies here, I mean this year, for the XOne and the Wii U. This average sales for 9 month is massively based on the few first months of the year, when the XOne was still in its 6 months from launch (and it was a good launch), the PS4 was still in shortage, and the Wii U seemed to be doomed to die.

This average for 9 months totally ignores the current trend, because the average doesn't change so much if it happens for a period where sales are low : currently, the Wii U is comming back and selling more for a few weeks (months ?), and the XOne is having low sales, making them even in sales. Why should the sales to come reproduce the very specific pattern of the post-launch period rather than the current trend ? I think that's one of the reason why the boost can vary greatly around x2, it depends on the dynamic (and shortage) of the console, not just on flat average sales.

Last but not least, the boost can vary greatly not just depending on the year, but also depending on the constructor, and it makes sense to say Nintendo is strong at Christmas sales.