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Forums - Sales - Prediction: Xbox One Will Have a 10 Million Lead over Wii U by the. End of 2015

sweetoothj said:
eva01beserk said:
sweetoothj said:

All three will get a price cut next year? Xbox one can afford a price cut because it's hardware isn't as expensive to make compare to the ps4. Sony doesn't have a lot of money and can't afford a lost on ps4 (ps4 is the only thing making a profit for sony) so I think only Microsoft and maybe Nintendo will have a price cut.

If the xbox hardware is not as expensive as the ps4, why did MS decided that it should be the same price as the ps4? So M$ has been shafting xbox fans? 

Sony anounced that they weremaking profit on each ps4, even if not a lot they can drope the price a little. Plus, on this day and age technology gets cheaper every year so by next year they will know where to cut coners. so $50 sometime nextyear is not out of the question,specially since they wont want to give M$ the upper hand in any way.

Microsoft is doing the same thing that Nintendo did. Release it at a  somewhat expensive price for first year, use the large amount of profits to subsudize their lost when they do a price cut in 2015. And again, Sony can't risk any lost with the PS4 or take much chances with new ips (they rely on indie games with their open policies) because if they were to lose any money on the PS4 or can't profit off the PS4, Sony is definantly finished. It has gotten so bad for Sony that their own governement won't back them up any more.

Thats the stupidest thing I have ever heard. No company would do that. Companys lower price of products as much as they can to sell as much as they can before the products interest fades away. New technologies cost a lot and they get optimised and improoved, thats why they drop in price. Beliving this to be a master plan is just ridiculous. With that argument you just made I see it would do me harm to keep arguing with you.


Sony is not doing goodyou are right. Butdoes it matter? If sony as acompany dies then you better belive the playstation willbe the only thing that will survive andstill kick the xbox's ass.



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toastboy44562 said:

Xbox One should be at 12 million by the end of 2014

Wii U will be at 10 million by the end of 2014

 

Xbox One should be at 24 million by the end of 2015

Wii U will be around 13-14 million by the end of 2015

 

Xbox One will have a lead of ten million by the end of 2015!

What orifice did you pull those figures from?

I doubt it will be anywhere near that by 2015. Try 15 m, although the PS4 just seems to be sucking in more players by the day. Thing is, go down to any shop where you have all the consoles up and running; the WiiU has some 8 year old on it about 10% of the time, the PS4 is swarmed by everyone, and the xbone has the mums whos kids are gawking at the PS4 standing around it. Seems pretty one sided at the moment.



lets all try not to be rude and call names :) Its a fair topic even if the OP has a skewed understanding of the wider market place.

RE: Sony - I've heard they've already hit breakeven on the hardware. They are also constrained on the production side apparently. Look for Ps4 to double its sales next year and leave X1 in the dust. Europe is guaranteed for them . Japan is a disappointment for everyone this gen but it looks like Wii U will take it. USA - right now it looks like its the PS4's to lose.

The simplest way of getting the complete gaming experience this gen is to get a PS4 and a Wii U. This really leaves X1 out in the cold. There's basically no reason to have X1 along side PS4 in a gamers household.



niallyb

eva01beserk said:
sweetoothj said:
eva01beserk said:
sweetoothj said:

Xbox one has Halo 5, Fable legends, Forza 6 (more than likely), Crackdown, Phantom Dust, Tomb Raider, Gears of War, Scalebound, Quantum Break, Dance central, Master Chief collection, Sunset Overdrive, Spark, Forza Horizon 2, ect... I think we can agree that xbox one has more than enough games exclusive wise. Plus not to mention all the third party support. So more people are going to pick up an Xbox one than a Wii U.

After the holidays they have nothing but quantom brake until the next holidays.

You mentioned a few that are coming this year, some that are coming late next year and a lot that dont even have release date that will probably come 2016 since some where shown only CGI trailers and other where just or not even mentioned. So still the x1 has nothing, sincemost of what you mentioned canot be used in the argument. Plus all those third partys seem to move mostly ps4's.


Holidays are the BIGGEST time of the year for systems to be sold. I remember when ps3 outsold 360 month after month, but one holiday reversed all of that and sometimes actually put xbox 360 ahead for the year. And same thing can be said about ps4 games and Wii U games. Sony is especially guilty of this because they announce a release date for a game and delay it a year. Look at drive club.


Yes they are, they sell almost the entire years worth in the holiday. So If the x1 has sold 2m this year(and I think thats far to much) then is likely to sell 2m on the holidays, I'll say 3m to be more then generous. And why? because the way it has been doing the rest of the year is an indication of the interest the people have in the product. If the ps4 sold 6m(Yes 3:1 for the year) it will sell probably another 6m the rest of the year.

Now here is the tricky part. Thewii u has sold 1.5 or less I think, but before E3 interest of the wii u was half of what it is now and a bunch of new IPs are coming so this arithmatic is a little offset so it can sell 2-3m the rest of the year.

First of all, on E3 nintendo dint anounce anything that would not be out latest next year and zelda was the latest anouncement and all of it was gameplay. MS and sony showed mostly CGI trailers while MS showed the most CGI trailers and anounced games that wont even be coming out next year. Second, did you see gamescon, where sony said all theese games are coming with in 6 months. A bunch of new games. What did MS showed? The same things we saw at E3, but we know about the tomb raider exclusivity so we got that going for us,wich is nice.


Why not, Wii U did it and so did 3ds. They know once they release the 3ds at 100 dollars cheaper after first year it will lose them money per 3ds sold. Most people who are die hard Xbox or Nintendo fans are willing to buy it at it's most expensive price in it's first year. Why not take advantage of that and use the profit you get to subsidize the obvious incoming price cut that will more than likely lose them money per unit sold?  They can then rely on third party royalty fees, exclusives, accessories , advertisement to make them a profit at that point. Not that hard to grasp. And apprently you still don't get it. SONY LIES ABOUT RELEASE DATE ALL THE TIME. Last guardian, Drive Club, GT, Heavy Rain, ect... Also, if Sony goes away or bankrupt that would mean playstation is up for grabs. Meaning Microsoft can buy it out if they want to, which won't be hard for them considering they are making billions of dollars each quarter.



sweetoothj said:
eva01beserk said:
sweetoothj said:


Holidays are the BIGGEST time of the year for systems to be sold. I remember when ps3 outsold 360 month after month, but one holiday reversed all of that and sometimes actually put xbox 360 ahead for the year. And same thing can be said about ps4 games and Wii U games. Sony is especially guilty of this because they announce a release date for a game and delay it a year. Look at drive club.


Yes they are, they sell almost the entire years worth in the holiday. So If the x1 has sold 2m this year(and I think thats far to much) then is likely to sell 2m on the holidays, I'll say 3m to be more then generous. And why? because the way it has been doing the rest of the year is an indication of the interest the people have in the product. If the ps4 sold 6m(Yes 3:1 for the year) it will sell probably another 6m the rest of the year.

Now here is the tricky part. Thewii u has sold 1.5 or less I think, but before E3 interest of the wii u was half of what it is now and a bunch of new IPs are coming so this arithmatic is a little offset so it can sell 2-3m the rest of the year.

First of all, on E3 nintendo dint anounce anything that would not be out latest next year and zelda was the latest anouncement and all of it was gameplay. MS and sony showed mostly CGI trailers while MS showed the most CGI trailers and anounced games that wont even be coming out next year. Second, did you see gamescon, where sony said all theese games are coming with in 6 months. A bunch of new games. What did MS showed? The same things we saw at E3, but we know about the tomb raider exclusivity so we got that going for us,wich is nice.


Why not, Wii U did it and so did 3ds. They know once they release the 3ds at 100 dollars cheaper after first year it will lose them money per 3ds sold. Most people who are die hard Xbox or Nintendo fans are willing to buy it at it's most expensive price in it's first year. Why not take advantage of that and use the profit you get to subsidize the obvious incoming price cut that will more than likely lose them money per unit sold?  They can then rely on third party royalty fees, exclusives, accessories , advertisement to make them a profit at that point. Not that hard to grasp. And apprently you still don't get it. SONY LIES ABOUT RELEASE DATE ALL THE TIME. Last guardian, Drive Club, GT, Heavy Rain, ect... Also, if Sony goes away or bankrupt that would mean playstation is up for grabs. Meaning Microsoft can buy it out if they want to, which won't be hard for them considering they are making billions of dollars each quarter.


Listen to yourself speak. Read it before you hit submit.  No company goes into the market knowing they are going to flop and need to do a massive pricecut in the future that will leave them in the red. You are making no sense. The wii u miscalculated and released to overpriced. its a mistake they are paying for rifht now it was not planed. they expected to be the only ones out and get anearly lead put people where smart and said $350 for only this? no thank you. The same happened to the x1. If what you said was true, then the moment they unbundled kicnect they could have droped the price at least $50 since they were loosing sales 3:1 and doing the worse year in xbox history.

I dont know about any of those releases but does it matter? Sony still pushed out 3 times more exclusives then MS last gen, so delay or not they still served more in their plate every time. And if sony goes bankrup, PS is to profitable to be bought. They would remain an independent company that only makes games.

And if M$ has so much cash, why do they need to overprice their console in anticipation of future loses? They could just eat the loses and sell tons of hardware and make it back in software, they would not havebeen sooutsold, they would not havelost third party favoritsm and they would definatly not have lost the US. You make no sense. Really think before you speak.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

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No, i make a better prediction, Wii U christmas sales > X1 christmas sales

Dont underestimate Mario Kart and SSB at christmas



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

sweetoothj

 

Companies move release dates all the time for lots of reasons.  Its a stretch to say they LIE in big capital letters like that.  It looks like you have some anger issues or that you believed that there is something promisary in announcing a target release date.   There's no need to go all tea party on it.  Anyone can pick out missed release dates for any platform.  Making a generalization like that without any data (and comparitive data for that matter) just makes you look a little unhinged :)

 

Keep in mind also that of all the platform holders , Sony tends to have the lowest %  of  first party/third party output and thus has less absolute control over release dates.    Most of the release dates on Ps4 are controlled by Ubisoft, Activitsion, EA, Warner Home Interactive etc  - though Sony does have some input into their scheduling activity.



niallyb

eva01beserk said:
sweetoothj said:
eva01beserk said:
sweetoothj said:


Holidays are the BIGGEST time of the year for systems to be sold. I remember when ps3 outsold 360 month after month, but one holiday reversed all of that and sometimes actually put xbox 360 ahead for the year. And same thing can be said about ps4 games and Wii U games. Sony is especially guilty of this because they announce a release date for a game and delay it a year. Look at drive club.


Yes they are, they sell almost the entire years worth in the holiday. So If the x1 has sold 2m this year(and I think thats far to much) then is likely to sell 2m on the holidays, I'll say 3m to be more then generous. And why? because the way it has been doing the rest of the year is an indication of the interest the people have in the product. If the ps4 sold 6m(Yes 3:1 for the year) it will sell probably another 6m the rest of the year.

Now here is the tricky part. Thewii u has sold 1.5 or less I think, but before E3 interest of the wii u was half of what it is now and a bunch of new IPs are coming so this arithmatic is a little offset so it can sell 2-3m the rest of the year.

First of all, on E3 nintendo dint anounce anything that would not be out latest next year and zelda was the latest anouncement and all of it was gameplay. MS and sony showed mostly CGI trailers while MS showed the most CGI trailers and anounced games that wont even be coming out next year. Second, did you see gamescon, where sony said all theese games are coming with in 6 months. A bunch of new games. What did MS showed? The same things we saw at E3, but we know about the tomb raider exclusivity so we got that going for us,wich is nice.


Why not, Wii U did it and so did 3ds. They know once they release the 3ds at 100 dollars cheaper after first year it will lose them money per 3ds sold. Most people who are die hard Xbox or Nintendo fans are willing to buy it at it's most expensive price in it's first year. Why not take advantage of that and use the profit you get to subsidize the obvious incoming price cut that will more than likely lose them money per unit sold?  They can then rely on third party royalty fees, exclusives, accessories , advertisement to make them a profit at that point. Not that hard to grasp. And apprently you still don't get it. SONY LIES ABOUT RELEASE DATE ALL THE TIME. Last guardian, Drive Club, GT, Heavy Rain, ect... Also, if Sony goes away or bankrupt that would mean playstation is up for grabs. Meaning Microsoft can buy it out if they want to, which won't be hard for them considering they are making billions of dollars each quarter.


Listen to yourself speak. Read it before you hit submit.  No company goes into the market knowing they are going to flop and need to do a massive pricecut in the future that will leave them in the red. You are making no sense. The wii u miscalculated and released to overpriced. its a mistake they are paying for rifht now it was not planed. they expected to be the only ones out and get anearly lead put people where smart and said $350 for only this? no thank you. The same happened to the x1. If what you said was true, then the moment they unbundled kicnect they could have droped the price at least $50 since they were loosing sales 3:1 and doing the worse year in xbox history.

I dont know about any of those releases but does it matter? Sony still pushed out 3 times more exclusives then MS last gen, so delay or not they still served more in their plate every time. And if sony goes bankrup, PS is to profitable to be bought. They would remain an independent company that only makes games.

And if M$ has so much cash, why do they need to overprice their console in anticipation of future loses? They could just eat the loses and sell tons of hardware and make it back in software, they would not havebeen sooutsold, they would not havelost third party favoritsm and they would definatly not have lost the US. You make no sense. Really think before you speak.

1st off,Nintendo Wii U is still a flop after a price cut and Mario Kart release (their biggest game). If that couldn't save them, chances are nothing will at this point. They could've took advantage of the high cost if anyone wanted their console, it worked for them for the 3ds against PSV.

Your second point about more exclusives is about to be moot. PS4 is going to be just like the 360 and rely on third party games toward end of the generation because there is no point for them to make new ips if they can make a profit relying on third party titles and don't risk any lost. Heck, the only games Sony announce for 2015 and above for ps4 that isn't some f2p or indie game is Bloodboorne, Uncharted 3 and The order. 

And for your last point, Microsoft loves profit, they want to still make a profit overall on the console and taking advantage of early adopters is an easy way to do so. And trust me, even if third party developers make more profit off of PS4, they won't show much favoritism for the ps4 other than slightly better looking multiplat games and maybe little exclusive content, then again xbone gets exclusive content as well and exlcusive games from third party developers (tomb raider ,titanfall and dead rising for example). 

 

 



"No, i make a better prediction, Wii U christmas sales > X1 christmas sales

Dont underestimate Mario Kart and SSB at christmas"


Totally agree with this.
Wii U will sell 150K in Japan for Nov ,250K in Europe, 600K USA
Wii U will sell 500K in Dec for Japan, 600K in Europe (conservatively), 1m+ in USA

I expect Nov+Dec to clear 3.1 - 3.3 million units.
Aug +Sept+Oct to come to about 700K (easing off the recent sales trend slightly).

So by the end of the year - total should be right around 11m.



niallyb

Aerys said:
No, i make a better prediction, Wii U christmas sales > X1 christmas sales

Dont underestimate Mario Kart and SSB at christmas

This.

And imho, even if not according to VGChrtz, will outsell XBOX ONE sales of year by October-November.

XBOX ONE have sold 1,75-1,8 million by 2 Augost (VGChartz is serious overestimate), Wii U more or less 1,45 million...

Will easy sell other 300,000-400,000 more than XBOX ONE.