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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Why I don't think the PS4 will pass 100m

ExplodingBlock said:

It was the fastest selling at launch, not anymore

PS4 is not doing great, it is doing fine along with the 3DS. The only reason people think its doing amazing is because of the sales of Xbox One, Wii U, and PSV

Look at the monthly sales of the ps3 again some time because you aren't remembering them correctly. The ps3 averaged far more than 150k for it's life time, but that is because weekly sales in november and december are massive outliers. based on monthly sales, excluding holiday sales, the ps3 would usually do 70-130k. Sometimes more and sometimes less, but somewhere in that range would be a pretty normal week. And I'm removing holiday sales because they aren't relevant to this discussion. Add to the fact that june-august are the worst months for sales because of the annual summer draught, the ps4 is doing pretty well still. 

 

Quote tree shortened - Kresnik.



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I see that "People don't understand the summer lull the thread" is still going.



Conina said:
spemanig said:
BHR-3 said:

whoa whoa ps3 still gots life in it lets let time pass and see where it ends up its come a long way from this

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=102249&page=4#1

PS4 passing 100M to me is a no brainier

the reason why PS3 is having a hard time/couldnt get pass 100M is b/c 360 and even the wii took loads of sales from it aswell as having a rough start form launch till about when UC2 release the ps4 wont have these issues its the it console this gen

The PS3's rough start sold better than the PS4's awesome one, though. How is that hard to understand?

So the PS3 reached 8 million sold units faster than the PS4?

 


Or if you prefer aligned launches which consider the later PS3-launch in Europe and the later PS4-launch in Japan:


you used my chart!

*hugs*



ikki5 said:
Rafux said:
ikki5 said:
Rafux said:
Is this bizarro world? PS3 was doing horrible the first 3 years and is still managed to sell 80M.

PS4 will reach 100M is a no brainer.


problem with that. The horrible first 3 years were due to problems the PS4 doesn't have. The PS3 shot up because the issues it had were resolves so people bought it. Those issues do not exist on the PS4 and the numbers are bad.

 

I also don't get why people are saying the PS4 will be on the market for 10 years. With the way technilogy is progressing, you'd think generations would just keep getting shorter (until it reaches pretty much the critical point) to keep up with the rate of technology. Either that, make upgradable systems.

PS4 numbers are bad? the fastest selling Playstation console? Numbers are ok for being the summer and having no new big games.

Bad compared to the original Wii maybe but that was a phenomenon.


I edited my last post and added more, I think you should take a look. I mentioned how people are looking at what it sold at the star and not what it is doing now. And I wasn't just comparing it to the Wii, I was comparing it to any console that sold over 100m.

Do you have the numbers for Playstation 1 and 2 first summer? Even with all the new competition consoles face today PS4 numbers for the summer are normal, big games coming from september on and it will continue in 2015.

I'm not sure what determines the long of a generation, maybe it ends when one of the big dogs releases new hardware like MS did with the 360 (PS2 gen was quite short) but then again Wi U didn't force anybody, neither did the Dreamcast (maybe cause they are underpowered in comparison). PS4 may last 5 years or 8 years, competition will determine that.



Danman27 said:
ExplodingBlock said:
Danman27 said:
ExplodingBlock said:

Recently with alot of peoples predictions, they said they think will think PS4 will sell over 100 million units

While I admit, the PS4 is doing great but if you look at the sales of the PS3 it was selling 150k every week and that didn't even do 90m, plus it was on the market for 7+ years

The only way I think it can pass 100m is if it is on the market for 9+ years and continues to sell after the PS5 comes out


This argument doesn't really make sense. The ps4 is selling better than the ps3. I'm not sure if the ps4 will sell that well either, but I don't see how this argument proves it at all. Most weeks the ps3 didn't do 150k. Holiday sales make up a massive amount of sales, so we won't really be able to guess how well the ps4 might sell until holiday season. 

PS3 had a really slow start


That doesn't change the fact that the ps4 is one of the fastest (I think the fastest) selling console of all time. I think the ps4 is going to have a shorter life cycle, and that's why it won't break 100 million. And you're not paying attention to my comment. The ps3 almost never sold 150k a week. So the biggest point you're making isn't accurate. 


The PS4 came out very strong, there is no doubt. However at this point in time in 07 the Wii had sold 9 million and was averaging 250 thousand a week in June. The PS4 didn't even break 100k for July 5 and has only been averaging a little over 100k per week for june.  



Gotta figure out how to set these up lol.

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Scoobes said:
Dusk said:
Scoobes said:
Dusk said:
Scoobes said:

There are actually more third party developers then ever before. You could argue there are less third party AAA developers, but I'm not sure how true that is either as the more sucessful studios tend to expand and have multiple teams working on multiple titles but under the same studio name.

I'd argue there are less AAA games in the same time frame because they take so damn long to make these days. Even Call of Duty has moved to a three year dev cycle.

How do you figure? The large studios aren't expanding and working on more games, they are actually aquiring more studios and teams to work on less games. 10 studios are working on AC Unity, 10! It makes no difference whether COD is a three year development cycle cause they have so many damn studios working on them one is released every year. Why not just have a group working on COD that releases every three years and then the rest of the stuidos could work on something different, maybe multiple different smaller less costly titles. In 2013 Ubisoft released 12 games, 2012-24, 2011-28, 2010-23, 2009-31, 2008-32. Oh and 2014 is looking to have 10. 

Less games. 

That's not refuting what I was saying. You've basically said large publishers have huge studios working on multiple games (in the same franchise a lot of the time) that take ages to come out because development takes ages. That's pretty much what I said in the case of AAA third parties. You also have sucess stories from last gen like Bioware, Insomniac and CDProjekt that have multiple teams and franchises on the go whereas before they only had one or two; more games, longer time-frames.

But, there are still more third party developers because there are many more smaller indie developers that publish directly to consumers via PSN.


Sure if you count indies as third parties it's undeniable. The problem with that is people don't buy $400 dollar consoles for indie games. Also, 10 studios working on a single title instead of ten or even 5 titles in the same amount of time is LESS. It's not like there is an infinite amount of studios to work on an infinite amount of games. If there are 100 studios, and each game requires 8 studios over 3 years you get 12.5 games as opposed to 100 studios where each game requires only 2 studios you get 50. So even if there are more studios like you think there are you would have to have 4 times the amount of studios to release the same amount of games as before. The more that the big publishers require the studios to combine work from more stuidos the less games will be released. The funny thing about this is that with this form of thought from these big publishers is that if they have a single flop, it could mean disaster. They might have to shut down multiple studios or even close the doors like THQ did. It's like the expression, "don't put all your eggs in one basket" but that is exactly what these guys are doing. If AC Unity flops like a fish out of water don't be surprised to see 5 out of 10 studios shut their doors. It's all a money game. A gamble. And these suckers are getting greedy. LIke a poor addicted gambler betting his life savings on 24 black. 

Whilst I agree with most of what you said about AAA developers/publishers, it's also not true for all AAA developers/publishers. The three companies I gave in my previous post are all working on multiple franchises with different teams on each. It also depends on what each studio/team is doing. Most big AAA games still only have one studio working as the primary, with many other studios pitching in as secondary studios. Many of these will be working on multiple games but just happen to have the expertise needed in a certain area to help out and whilst it adds a lot of names to the credits, it could only account for 10% of their resources with 90% on other games.

@bolded

The other thing about Indie devs is whilst right now they may not seem worth a $400 console, these are the AAA devs of tomorrow. They're the ones that will come up with innovative ideas and who will later get contracts with publishers along with bigger budgets. We're already starting to see this with the likes of Project CARS so by year 3 of this gen, expect a lot more.

No, it's not true for all AAA devs and or pubs. 

I'm not sure they are the AAA devs of tomorrow. Some have already been the AAA devs of today or yesteryear but moved on for one reason or another. In many cases they have stated that they don't have the freedom to do what they want to do anymore. That's why kickstarters are so common place now, but that's not going to be able to stand up for the long run I don't think. There will be people that try to take advantage of it, like with Mighty No 9 asking for even more money when they already far exceeded their original goal. This is a small example and one of the first, but I'm sure it won't be the last. Tends to be the human condition as sad as that is. 

Yes, Project CARS looks great, hopefully it plays that way as well. I'm worried it will be over shadowed by all the large franchises being released at the same time though. 



Gotta figure out how to set these up lol.

Aerys said:
It is common sense that it will pass 100M by far, it's the console that will gather everyone, the market wont be too much splitted so 100M is the low expectation.


No, it's not common sense. Learn what common sense is before you post something like that, it shows you lack common sense :P



Gotta figure out how to set these up lol.

What's with the silly wii comparisons? Do you think the PS4 will have the same "fall" as the Wii?.. The ongoing strength will easily make up for whatever it sells less of right now.



It's the fastest selling console of all time so it will pass 100mil easily. Regardless, it will sell better ...much better than the other two consoles.



Raziel123 said:
What's with the silly wii comparisons? Do you think the PS4 will have the same "fall" as the Wii?.. The ongoing strength will easily make up for whatever it sells less of right now.

Yeah, those are always headscratchers for me too. Who gives a crap what the Wii sold at this point in its life? That is more or less completely irrelevant.

At the end of 2010 the Wii had sold over 80% of its lifetime numbers already, at this point the PS3 (which was just as old) had only sold a little more then 50% of its lifetime sales, heck maybe even less then 50% depending on where the console will end. Even the PS2 had sold only about 70 million after 4 years and that thing went on to completely decimate the Wii in overall sales.

The PS4 has to live longer than the Wii to outsell it, not match its initial weekly numbers. So stop making that comparison, it's completely pointless.