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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Why I don't think the PS4 will pass 100m

Rafux on 22 July 2014
Dusk said:
Rafux said:
Dusk said:
WagnerPaiva said:

At the current rate it will sell around 500k every month, or 6 million a year, plus 2 million every holiday, so, 8 million a year.
So, I guess it will get to 64 million or so in 8 years, when it will be dropped for good.

Of course, Sony can go into bankruptcy in 2 or 3 years, so, in that case, 20 or 30 million, and a lot of sad gamers.=/

Wow, someone following my train of thought. And I thought I was the only one lol


And you are both wrong, PS4 is on its way to sell 14 million in its first year "with no gaemz", big releases are coming in 2105 and on, plus price cuts, VR tech (could work or could be shit who knows).

It seems like you want the PS4 to fail. It won't.


14 million lol. Are you on crack? That's a damn long time to wait for the big gaemz, not sure the console will be around that long :P

Nope I don't want the Playstation to fail in any way. The post asked how many I think it will sell. So I answered. I am just not as optimistic as many of the people on this forum. I think this entire generation is going to be a lower selling than the last one and that is going to be due to IP fatigue for many of the large IP's as well as less games over all. Again, it's my opinion, don't take it so personally. 


Its almost 9M already, from september big games are coming and holyday season 14M is on lock. You are a fear monger who likes to say how everything is going to the toilet and you told us first.



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Dusk on 22 July 2014
Rafux said:
Dusk said:
Rafux said:
Dusk said:
WagnerPaiva said:

At the current rate it will sell around 500k every month, or 6 million a year, plus 2 million every holiday, so, 8 million a year.
So, I guess it will get to 64 million or so in 8 years, when it will be dropped for good.

Of course, Sony can go into bankruptcy in 2 or 3 years, so, in that case, 20 or 30 million, and a lot of sad gamers.=/

Wow, someone following my train of thought. And I thought I was the only one lol


And you are both wrong, PS4 is on its way to sell 14 million in its first year "with no gaemz", big releases are coming in 2105 and on, plus price cuts, VR tech (could work or could be shit who knows).

It seems like you want the PS4 to fail. It won't.


14 million lol. Are you on crack? That's a damn long time to wait for the big gaemz, not sure the console will be around that long :P

Nope I don't want the Playstation to fail in any way. The post asked how many I think it will sell. So I answered. I am just not as optimistic as many of the people on this forum. I think this entire generation is going to be a lower selling than the last one and that is going to be due to IP fatigue for many of the large IP's as well as less games over all. Again, it's my opinion, don't take it so personally. 


Its almost 9M already, from september big games are coming and holyday season 14M is on lock. You are a fear monger who likes to say how everything is going to the toilet and you told us first.

So you are betting on over 5 million over the holiday season. More than it's initial release sales. I just don't see that happening. Yeah, it has some good games coming out, but it broke records and they couldn't keep it in stock. I'm not a "fear monger", but I do find that funny. I think you are just overly optimistic. 



Gotta figure out how to set these up lol.

cheshirescat on 22 July 2014
Dusk said:

So you are betting on over 5 million over the holiday season. More than it's initial release sales. I just don't see that happening. Yeah, it has some good games coming out, but it broke records and they couldn't keep it in stock. I'm not a "fear monger", but I do find that funny. I think you are just overly optimistic. 


You do realize it won't have to surpass its release sales in order to hit 14 million by the end of the year.  There's still three months of sales to look forward to before the hoiday season, and unless tlou remastered, destiny, and the myriad of games coming out in October do next to nothing to boost the ps4's sales by November then 14 million should be a shoe in.

 

I mean, two years ago the ps3 sold over 6.6 million units in the same time span, with what I would argue was a comparatively anemic lineup of games while having to compete with the Wii U's release, which was pretty decent at the time.  Do you honestly believe that the market has constricted so much that a bit over 5 million units is outside of the realm of possibility?



deviliscry on 22 July 2014

i think 130M +



Dusk on 22 July 2014
cheshirescat said:
Dusk said:
 

So you are betting on over 5 million over the holiday season. More than it's initial release sales. I just don't see that happening. Yeah, it has some good games coming out, but it broke records and they couldn't keep it in stock. I'm not a "fear monger", but I do find that funny. I think you are just overly optimistic. 


You do realize it won't have to surpass its release sales in order to hit 14 million by the end of the year.  There's still three months of sales to look forward to before the hoiday season, and unless tlou remastered, destiny, and the myriad of games coming out in October do next to nothing to boost the ps4's sales by November then 14 million should be a shoe in.

 

I mean, two years ago the ps3 sold over 6.6 million units in the same time span, with what I would argue was a comparatively anemic lineup of games while having to compete with the Wii U's release, which was pretty decent at the time.  Do you honestly believe that the market has constricted so much that a bit over 5 million units is outside of the realm of possibility?

Well, that was 2 years ago, the prices were much better in comparison, there were bundles and loads of extras offered. The PS4 doesn't have much of any of that right now. I'm still not sold on TLOU:R going to be a huge boost because I think the majority of people that absolutely wanted to play it have done so, and if they still want to play it why not pick it up for $20-$30 or the bundle for $270 instead of a potential $400+ $50. I think it will sell well, but mostly to those that already have a PS4. It's a great game and certainly worth picking up if you have a PS4, but why pick up a PS4 for it? Destiny will sell well I'm quite sure, but it is also available on PS3/360 as well as the Xbox One. Sales will pick up, but there is no MUST HAVE exclusives or a great back log catalogue for the system yet. I think next year (second year on market) will likely be it's best year as is the usual for most systems. 



Gotta figure out how to set these up lol.

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kupomogli on 22 July 2014

It'll reach go over 100m. The PS4 is selling well, but it'd sell much better if not for the lack of exclusives. There are four games that are exclusive and one current/next gen multiconsole game until 2015. There are no games in Japan that are exclusive or multiconsole that are even aimed towards the Japanese. Anything that they can purchase on the PS4 can also be purchased on the PS3. The Japanese are waiting for Final Fantasy 15, Kingdom Hearts 3, an exclusive Yakuza, Gundam, some weird Japanese game where you see skimpy dressed anime girls and get to touch them, etc. The PS4 has none of that. Infact, it really has nothing at all just about.

The PS4 will sell, it's just not everyone is going to purchase the console when there's nothing to buy the console for.



cheshirescat on 22 July 2014
Dusk said:
cheshirescat said:


You do realize it won't have to surpass its release sales in order to hit 14 million by the end of the year.  There's still three months of sales to look forward to before the hoiday season, and unless tlou remastered, destiny, and the myriad of games coming out in October do next to nothing to boost the ps4's sales by November then 14 million should be a shoe in.

 

I mean, two years ago the ps3 sold over 6.6 million units in the same time span, with what I would argue was a comparatively anemic lineup of games while having to compete with the Wii U's release, which was pretty decent at the time.  Do you honestly believe that the market has constricted so much that a bit over 5 million units is outside of the realm of possibility?

Well, that was 2 years ago, the prices were much better in comparison, there were bundles and loads of extras offered. The PS4 doesn't have much of any of that right now. I'm still not sold on TLOU:R going to be a huge boost because I think the majority of people that absolutely wanted to play it have done so, and if they still want to play it why not pick it up for $20-$30 or the bundle for $270 instead of a potential $400+ $50. I think it will sell well, but mostly to those that already have a PS4. It's a great game and certainly worth picking up if you have a PS4, but why pick up a PS4 for it? Destiny will sell well I'm quite sure, but it is also available on PS3/360 as well as the Xbox One. Sales will pick up, but there is no MUST HAVE exclusives or a great back log catalogue for the system yet. I think next year (second year on market) will likely be it's best year as is the usual for most systems.

The ps4 is going to have bundles, there are going to be black friday and holiday deals like there are every year.  The last of us remastered doesn't have to provide the same boost that the original did for the ps3.  As far as destiny is concerned, have we all forgotten about watch dogs already?  The same arguments were made then but the ps4 boost was vastly superior than that of all the other systems and all indications point to destiny doing even more than that.  Then there are the superfluous yearly releases and various third party releases where the ps4 has taken the pole position as preferred or lead platform.  There is plenty of software coming out to push sales despite the lack of exclusive games.

Even last year the ps3 sold just a tiny bit less than 5 million in this time frame, and that is while being undermined by that record release for the ps4 and the xbone.  It will take one of the worst holiday seasons in the history of the industry for the ps4 to not hit 14 million.



Dark_Lord_2008 on 22 July 2014

The PS4 will easily sell over 120 million consoles. The market leader over the previous 3 generations have sold over 100 million consoles: PS1 ~ 104 million, PS2 ~158 million, Wii ~ 101 million.



Wazowski on 23 July 2014
Dark_Lord_2008 said:

The PS4 will easily sell over 120 million consoles. The market leader over the previous 3 generations have sold over 100 million consoles: PS1 ~ 104 million, PS2 ~158 million, Wii ~ 101 million.


oh look! a pattern:P

5th gen: 100m+

6th gen: 150m+

7th gen: 100m+

8th gen: 150m+ ? 



drake_tolu on 30 August 2014

my answer:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=189378&page=1