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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Why I don't think the PS4 will pass 100m

Dusk said:
Danman27 said:
ExplodingBlock said:
Danman27 said:
ExplodingBlock said:

Recently with alot of peoples predictions, they said they think will think PS4 will sell over 100 million units

While I admit, the PS4 is doing great but if you look at the sales of the PS3 it was selling 150k every week and that didn't even do 90m, plus it was on the market for 7+ years

The only way I think it can pass 100m is if it is on the market for 9+ years and continues to sell after the PS5 comes out


This argument doesn't really make sense. The ps4 is selling better than the ps3. I'm not sure if the ps4 will sell that well either, but I don't see how this argument proves it at all. Most weeks the ps3 didn't do 150k. Holiday sales make up a massive amount of sales, so we won't really be able to guess how well the ps4 might sell until holiday season. 

PS3 had a really slow start


That doesn't change the fact that the ps4 is one of the fastest (I think the fastest) selling console of all time. I think the ps4 is going to have a shorter life cycle, and that's why it won't break 100 million. And you're not paying attention to my comment. The ps3 almost never sold 150k a week. So the biggest point you're making isn't accurate. 


The PS4 came out very strong, there is no doubt. However at this point in time in 07 the Wii had sold 9 million and was averaging 250 thousand a week in June. The PS4 didn't even break 100k for July 5 and has only been averaging a little over 100k per week for june.  

Sony already said the PS4 is over 9mil buddy.Vgchartz is not accurate.



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Dusk said:
Danman27 said:
ExplodingBlock said:
Danman27 said:
ExplodingBlock said:

Recently with alot of peoples predictions, they said they think will think PS4 will sell over 100 million units

While I admit, the PS4 is doing great but if you look at the sales of the PS3 it was selling 150k every week and that didn't even do 90m, plus it was on the market for 7+ years

The only way I think it can pass 100m is if it is on the market for 9+ years and continues to sell after the PS5 comes out


This argument doesn't really make sense. The ps4 is selling better than the ps3. I'm not sure if the ps4 will sell that well either, but I don't see how this argument proves it at all. Most weeks the ps3 didn't do 150k. Holiday sales make up a massive amount of sales, so we won't really be able to guess how well the ps4 might sell until holiday season. 

PS3 had a really slow start


That doesn't change the fact that the ps4 is one of the fastest (I think the fastest) selling console of all time. I think the ps4 is going to have a shorter life cycle, and that's why it won't break 100 million. And you're not paying attention to my comment. The ps3 almost never sold 150k a week. So the biggest point you're making isn't accurate. 


The PS4 came out very strong, there is no doubt. However at this point in time in 07 the Wii had sold 9 million and was averaging 250 thousand a week in June. The PS4 didn't even break 100k for July 5 and has only been averaging a little over 100k per week for june.  

Yeah and the wii fail like a rock after the forth year, the ps4 will probably peak in it's fith year like the ps3 did. People are seeing the ps4 numbers in the slowest part of the year and they are all ''OMG teh ps4 is doomed'', what will you all say when sale start peeking up big time after september?



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

chapset said:

Yeah and the wii fail like a rock after the forth year, the ps4 will probably peak in it's fith year like the ps3 did. People are seeing the ps4 numbers in the slowest part of the year and they are all ''OMG teh ps4 is doomed'', what will you all say when sale start peeking up big time after september?


Theres a difference between thinking a console is doomed and thinking it wont reach 100 million sold...



GoldenGamer said:
It's the fastest selling console of all time so it will pass 100mil easily. Regardless, it will sell better ...much better than the other two consoles.


It's not actually lol.



Gotta figure out how to set these up lol.

chapset said:
Dusk said:
Danman27 said:
ExplodingBlock said:
Danman27 said:
ExplodingBlock said:

Recently with alot of peoples predictions, they said they think will think PS4 will sell over 100 million units

While I admit, the PS4 is doing great but if you look at the sales of the PS3 it was selling 150k every week and that didn't even do 90m, plus it was on the market for 7+ years

The only way I think it can pass 100m is if it is on the market for 9+ years and continues to sell after the PS5 comes out


This argument doesn't really make sense. The ps4 is selling better than the ps3. I'm not sure if the ps4 will sell that well either, but I don't see how this argument proves it at all. Most weeks the ps3 didn't do 150k. Holiday sales make up a massive amount of sales, so we won't really be able to guess how well the ps4 might sell until holiday season. 

PS3 had a really slow start


That doesn't change the fact that the ps4 is one of the fastest (I think the fastest) selling console of all time. I think the ps4 is going to have a shorter life cycle, and that's why it won't break 100 million. And you're not paying attention to my comment. The ps3 almost never sold 150k a week. So the biggest point you're making isn't accurate. 


The PS4 came out very strong, there is no doubt. However at this point in time in 07 the Wii had sold 9 million and was averaging 250 thousand a week in June. The PS4 didn't even break 100k for July 5 and has only been averaging a little over 100k per week for june.  

Yeah and the wii fail like a rock after the forth year, the ps4 will probably peak in it's fith year like the ps3 did. People are seeing the ps4 numbers in the slowest part of the year and they are all ''OMG teh ps4 is doomed'', what will you all say when sale start peeking up big time after september?

What makes you think that? Why would it peak then? The PS3 was a very different beast than the PS4 and there are no similarities in the release structure. 



Gotta figure out how to set these up lol.

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Dusk said:
 

What makes you think that? Why would it peak then? The PS3 was a very different beast than the PS4 and there are no similarities in the release structure. 

What how was the ps3 so different to the ps4? They are both powerfull hardware at launch, both will sale mostly due to third party support, Sony already said they will support the ps4 for at least 10 years just like the ps2 and ps3 why would the sale patern of the ps4 be different lol. The ps3 will end up probably around 90million, for the same time period the ps4 outsold the ps3 by more then 4million ( the ps3 was at around 4mill at this point of it life) with how weak the competition is this gen I have no doubt the ps4 will increase it lead over the ps3 by 6million when it's said and done putting itat  more than 100 million lifetime. Using the slowest part of the year when the console didn't have any note worthy release for a long time to say it won't reach 100 million is pretty dumb if you ask me.
 edit: also the 360 peaked in it's 6th year. The ps4 will have a very similar sale patern to those 2 console not to the wii



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

It's probable they'll sell 100 millions.

The reason is simply because there's no competitors: people seem to be definitely rooting for the PS4 even in the US, and nobody cares about the Wii U (which is not even competing), and developers will follow, so more people will buy it.

They sold 100 millions Playstation and 150 millions PS2 without competition, and 80 millions even with competition of both Xbox 360 at 80 millions too and Wii at 100 millions.

Why wouldn't they?



People wants so much something to fail that completely fails (itself) to see the big picture-.-

so this generation is going to last just 4 years?
may be, but is that a fact?

the PS4 shows signs of weaking?

is the competition doing great that there is no space to even think about buying PS4?

did all the AAA titles and exclusives already came out and failed?

did the new gen already been announced?

is the end of the world near? 


- the awnser is NO in all my question (dont know about the last one but by TRENDS is not likely)
... so yeah there is a very good chance PS4 do much more than 100m



Dusk said:
Aerys said:
It is common sense that it will pass 100M by far, it's the console that will gather everyone, the market wont be too much splitted so 100M is the low expectation.


No, it's not common sense. Learn what common sense is before you post something like that, it shows you lack common sense :P


It means it is obvious for anyone that follows sales since years and understand how it works

For those people, yes it is ;)

 



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

chapset said:
Dusk said:
 

What makes you think that? Why would it peak then? The PS3 was a very different beast than the PS4 and there are no similarities in the release structure. 

What how was the ps3 so different to the ps4? They are both powerfull hardware at launch, both will sale mostly due to third party support, Sony already said they will support the ps4 for at least 10 years just like the ps2 and ps3 why would the sale patern of the ps4 be different lol. The ps3 will end up probably around 90million, for the same time period the ps4 outsold the ps3 by more then 4million ( the ps3 was at around 4mill at this point of it life) with how weak the competition is this gen I have no doubt the ps4 will increase it lead over the ps3 by 6million when it's said and done putting itat  more than 100 million lifetime. Using the slowest part of the year when the console didn't have any note worthy release for a long time to say it won't reach 100 million is pretty dumb if you ask me.
 edit: also the 360 peaked in it's 6th year. The ps4 will have a very similar sale patern to those 2 console not to the wii


Ummm k. I think you missed my point. The PS3 did not sell well when it entered the market. The PS4 has so far. The PS3 had loads of support. The PS4 has some support. I say "some" because there aren't as many games coming out for it as there was for the PS3 in comparison although it does have some high quality games. All the systems are suffering from this, not just the PS4. The development cycles are longer but the same games are being pushed out more regularly so there is less incentive for someone to purchase a new system for it just to play the "new" iteration of whatever "new" game it is in the franchise. I'm talking about IP fatigue. Look at COD for instance. Or AC. Or the 2D mario games recently. But my point is that a console needs games to sell, and if there are less games, unless they have ultra mass appeal, less will sell. This is of course my theory. 

Every console will have slow times, there is no denying that, but hasn't anybody noticed that the droughts are longer and more common?

I find it funny that so many people have a problem with my reasoning though. Maybe I'm entirely out to lunch, but what if I'm right?



Gotta figure out how to set these up lol.