Install base is one part of the equation, the activeness of the group and  type of games that install base buys are other important factors

In anycase, no/very few devs would make money off AAA next gen exclusives at their current install base, hence why all titles are cross gen.

Not to poop on your party, but considering the last paragraph...

WB support consists almost only of exceptions: Batman Arkham Knight, Shadow of Mordor, Dying Light are not coming to Wii U.

Ubisoft is the same, AC Unity, Far Cry 4, The Crew, The Division, AC Comet is highly speculated to be skipping Wii U, but I'll wait for the official confirmation. So actually the odd exception is the late Watch Dogs port (if it will happen).

So actually the only one with strong support left is Activision, where Destiny is the only exception not coming to the Wii U. CoD AW is not announced for the Wii U either (that may change).

15 million wii u owners who only buy nintendo made software isnt going to change 3rd parties mind.

sure the wii u will get some 3rd party support, quality is king on nintendo consoles. nintendos problem is that nintendo consoles arnt that good for non nintendo AAA titles, and the mid sector is diening. we get more indies and more AAA, but lesser titles in the middle, and those titles sold well on nintendo consoles.
i dont want a bad multiplatt game on my wii u. i have a PC to play those games in better graphic quality and with working input devices(fps on consoles are just broken...)

They can't very well return if they weren't there in the first place. There wasn't all that much wholehearted 3rd party support for the Wii U from the beginning, despite being the follow-up to a market leader and essentially holding the entire 8th gen market to itself for a year. There is no reason to believe that this will change regardless seeing as how it has sold very poorly, the 3rd party efforts that have found their way to the Wii U have sold atrociously and the competition is currently doing a whole lot better on both fronts.
As for a turnaround; I wonder at which point every single person will realize that the Wii U will not have an amazing comeback, I imagine even a year from now, we'll have someone going "It's still too early to call anything."

Sure enough. Especially if NIntendo continues the practice of money-hatting little-known, but promising adult oriented projects that are on the brink as they did with Bayonetta 2. There's rumors of them doing the same with Devil's Third. Though NIntendo partially owns the Fatal Frame IP -- it could be argued they're doing the same there too.

Big family-oriented and casual franchises like Just Dance and Skylanders will definitely stick around. Lego games will probably always be on the console too.

It wouldn't necessarily be crazy for EA to dip their toes into publishing some new sports games sometime in the future. Especially since they've developed one on there before.

So by some measure, the Wii U always "has a shot at 3rd party support" because every publisher sticks their finger in the pie (but so seldom take a slice...)

Realistically, most everyone realizes we won't be seeing GTA, Fallout, or  new Batman on the console and really most Nintendo fans are perfectly fine with that. I for one do enjoy the extra gamepad functionality on WiiU Batman. I look forward to see what they do for it on Watch Dogs. But sadly, we Gamepad afficionados are a niche group. It's a shame Fallout won't make it (because the Pip boy is basically a wearable gamepad) -- though playing it on PC will still be just as nice.

For me personally, I recognize that each console represents for me and I'm fine with buying a Wii U for 1st party titles, especially since I never owned a Wii and lost an entire generation of Nintendo titles. The 3rd party offerings that are on the Wii U are (for me) either available elsewhere or completely uninteresting (Bayonetta 2 for instance, not my genre at all) but that's fine. For the vast majority of games, I get them on PC anyway. For me; it's mostly about price, I never buy consoles early and I almost never pay full price for games since so few of them are worth the investment when all is said and done.

What never ceases to amaze me though, is the number of people who still believe that the Wii U can somehow become competitive in hardware sales and will receive any decent 3rd party support once the PS360/PS4One transition period is over.

WiiU 3rd party support will truly die when people stop making PS3/360 ports.

It would take more than 12 million Wii U's. It will take poor sales by at least the One and probably also the PS4. If sales of the other two systems stall and Wii U surges, then 3rd parties will need Wii U to make their games profitable. Thing is, that scenario is very unlikely, so I said 'no' in your poll.

Only in the event that 3rd party AAA gaming crumbles underneath itself entirely (e.g. Watch Dogs, Destiny, Final Fantasy XV and others cause disastrous losses for publishers) and some indie game exclusive to WiiU has it's "minecraft" moment, could that occur. Unlikely, but not impossible.

Even then, the publishers would have to align under NIntendo moreso than Sony or Microsoft. Among those two, one or the other could be doing badly, but not likely both. Basically, Sony would be in such disastrous financial condition that it couldn't properly support Playstation. Microsoft would begin losing interest in the gaming market entirely, having weathered years of losses to building a successful brand only to see it's popularity and chance of profitability wither.

Again, not a likely scenario -- but not an entirely impossible one.