Its my opinion. Please dont hate me.

Bungies destiny will be a commercial failure. It might get critical success but I dout about its commercial success. Half a billion is spend in a game that is a new IP, MMO characteristics and unproved grnre in consoles. New COD, Halo 2 HD will be choice of many FPS lovers and many awesome games will get released within a few months of destiny release. I just dont see it selling 7-8 million at $60 rate. It might sell over 10 million but at reduced price. It might struggle to break even.

What do you guys think?

Activision isn't expecting to make back the investment in just one game, they're building a franchise here. You gotta spend money to make money and Activision has a lot of money to spend.

Yeah. I understand your point. Its an investment for future. But still initial return from it might be negative. But I think destiny wont turn into a bigger franchise as COD.

If the game is half as big as they hope I think they'll make their money back in 5 years (three games and all the DLC).

Activision is playing the long game so I doubt it. A single game could be a commercial failure, but that's unlikely as well.

Fusioncode had a good point, unless the first game completely flops, I do not think Activsion is too worried on not making back the investment the first time around, especially since costs for development will be much lower for the 2nd game.

Pre Orders are currently massive.

Unless the Beta is complete trash this game is going to annihilate in sales. The only thing that will touch it is COD.

I'm still waiting to see what's it about. Do they have a in game trailer yet? It's also not coming to the Wii U, so I really shouldn't care.

PS4 will ensure the commercial success for it. Moreover if it was an exclusive, this would have raised doubts.

Nope, commercial success.

There are so many ways to monetize an IP and Activision will pursue most of them.