Mummelmann said:
Assuming for the sake of this conversation that this premise is correct, are you simply proposing that Nintendo stop making its own hardware and become a dedicated mobile developer? If so, I can't agree, for reasons that have been discussed countless times on this site. The alternative to this plan is throwing in the towel.
That is not what I’m proposing, Nintendo rely on software – hardware synergy in their development, going away from making their own hardware would remove that possibility and force them under the hardware premises of outside companies; that would dampen their creative incentives and knack for original software. I am in no way suggesting they become a dedicated mobile developer, and I can’t quite figure out where you get that impression from my post.
What I’m saying is that any kind of traditional console release at this point when the market, be it matured or developing, is undergoing such changes and partitioning is a bad idea as the outcome might well end up being bad, especially for markets where the cheaper convenience segment (note that that includes browser and social games, this is not simply about phones and tablets here) is likely to be the better alternative for most (if the other traditional consoles aren’t doing much in these markets; it is unlikely that yet another will, even dirt cheap PS2’s and Wii’s have failed to make much of an impact in these regions so price is not the main problem, especially now).
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I got that impression from your post because I honestly don't know how else it can be read, and this post only furthers that reading. Releasing the current-gen consoles won't lead to mass profits, for the reason some folks have since posted, you're against the idea of releasing a console tailored for the emerging markets because you think it's a risk, and you think it's a risk because what you call the Convenience Segment is going to handily defeat dedicated consoles. Broaden my earlier post to include browser and social games, but the point is the same: they can't realistically succeed with the Wii U there, and surrendering emerging markets without a fight is not a wise course of action, so either they try to go in with a console that's more appropriate or they jump into the market by slipping into this Convenience Segment. What option am I missing?
Mummelmann said:
My support for that statement is the abundance of data showing how this segment has intruded upon traditional gaming; especially dedicated handhelds have taken a massive hit. Developing markets follow the trends and movements of mature markets so we can safely assume that whatever is happening in the latter will affect the former. “Unprecedented collapse” is a very dramatic straw man effort on your behalf and I never suggested as much; what I am stating is that we will see a market contraction and all the data thus far supports this view and you can see it on the very front page of the very site we’re posting on. 7th generation sales are in no way an indication of where console gaming is headed and it is ludicrous to think that the PS4, One and Wii U will manage a combined installed base to match that of the PS3, 360 and Wii.
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Even before the launch of the 3DS I was one of the first to say that this generation will see a dramatic contraction, and I'll formally repeat it here: this generation is going to be ugly for dedicated game consoles. But that won't be because this Convenience Segment suddenly takes over everything. It will be because the decisions made by the game industry, software and hardware, make the dedicated gaming console unappealing.
Where you see a "new" segment taking a big bite out of dedicated handhelds, I see a market where the dedicated handhelds (whose first audience is and should continue to be children) released $250 technological boondoggles AND raised the price on software. I see a market where the cheapest home console costs $300, looks largely identical to the 7th generation consoles, and has a controller which is not only dual-analogue but now also sports a capacitive touchscreen and looks incredibly unwieldly and uncomfortable (and has a three hour battery life to boot). The most expensive home console is $500 and insists on having a motion sensor that much of its games hardly use. The middle console is $400, and graphics aside is basically a clone of its predecessor. The latter is also the best console of this generation. :-/
I also see this "new" segment where mobile games are simply the successor to the cell phone games which have been big in Japan since the early 2000's, a territory where the dedicated handheld is the strongest in the world per capita: mobile didn't stop the DS, PSP, or 3DS. I see a "new" segment where social-based games have weakened so much that Facebook feels the need to spend a billion dollars to buy the latest VR headset in an effort to bolster its gaming segment: profits are bad enough that companies like EA and Zygna that bet literally billions on it only a few years ago are retreating as fast as they can. I see a "new" browser market dominated by free-to-play games, a business model that's extremely dependent on a relative handful of whales to make any money; and if history has taught us anything, it's that a market dependent on a small handful of people is the definition of unstable.
In brief, I see a generation which saw unprecedented highs for dedicated consoles in spite of all the ink wasted on overpraising the "new" segments of the market (segments which existed in some form prior to the 7th generation). And I see an 8th generation where hubris caused all the lessons of the 7th generation to be discarded, with predictable results. The reason "consoles are losing relevance even in their strongest territories" is because the 8th generation is filled to the brim with stupid ideas. Not because "the convenience segment will [suddenly] conquer these markets [when they failed to do so last generation]."
Mummelmann said:
Again you’re putting words in my mouth; I have never said that consoles are doomed and that mobile will take over all gaming; that is a ridiculous conclusion to draw from my post(s).
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"Hmm, entering into battle with smartphones/tablets and browser/social games will not end well, I think"..."the convenience segment will conquer these markets and consoles are losing relevance even in their strongest territories"..."[trying to combat the Convenience Segment] is a horrible plan in this day and age and shows that Nintendo are truly struggling to keep up with the modern market movements and development."
The popular conclusion to the saying "if you can't beat them" is usually "join them." Saying "They should stay first-party because their strength is controlling hardware" doesn't amount to much when your very next sentence is "but controlling your own hardware ain't enough to beat the competition, so prepare to get pounded"!
Mummelmann said:
Emerging markets are copies of developed markets
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I have literally never heard this statement before. It certainly doesn't make a lick of sense to me. If it were true, the markets of the world would be homogenized: they are not. The vast number of companies, big and small, throwing untold billions of dollars to try to get a foot in the emerging markets early clearly implies that they don't hold this premise to be true either. Just looking at gaming, the Japanese market is radically different than the North American one, which in turn is very distinct from the European one. Shoot, even European countries' markets tend to be vastly different from one another.
This premise, which seems to be the crux of your thesis, is blatantly false.
Mummelmann said:
I am not saying that Nintendo should go 3rd party; I am not saying that mobile gaming will conquer the entire market. I’m saying that mobile gaming will conquer a certain segment of the market that previously had one foot in the console and handheld market (look at Wii Fit, Brain Age, Buzz and similar games, there is no room for these games for fringe customers on traditional, static home devices any longer due to changes in demographic sway) and that attempting to revitalize console concepts in developing markets is a poor idea and that they should rather focus on gaining some hold where they have lost it. They are desperately searching for unplowed fields to sow their seeds and that won’t get them anywhere unless they take their time to really read the market and its development.
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What makes the two goals mutually exclusive though? Whatever they come up with to re-win the developed markets won't fly in the emerging markets, for reasons already stated by myself and others. Even if they find the next Wii-Sports type phenomenom, the average person in China won't spend a tenth of more of their annual income to buy it. Meanwhile, their competitors are making money and inroads into the emerging markets, where a generation or two from now the Nintendo Ultra 1,028 has become affordable for the masses, and can be released simultaneously there as in the developed world.
Shoot, even the phrasing of your premise is wrong. Nintendo wouldn't be seeking to "revitalize" consoles in the developing markets, they'd be seeking to "introduce" them. It's not like your average Indian had access to an NES in the 80's, or a Brazilian taken randomly off the street likely owned a GBA at the turn of the milennium. When it comes to consoles the emerging markets are largely a New World. Someone's gotta bring smallpox blankets to the natives and seize those silver mines: why let Sony or Microsoft or some other company take New York when Nintendo has a bag of beads available to bargain with too?
Mummelmann said:
This is only one more part of the problem; one I didn’t even touch in my opening post. Nintendo’s resources are already spread very thin as is. “Mobile will be everything soon” is the third absolute term you have somehow attributed to me and it is quite simply unrelated to my point. You’re making many assumptions on my stance on the industry and its future, none of which seem to have been gleaned from my posts.
It quite simply seems like Nintendo are hoping for another Wii by tapping into a potential and nearly untouched market when the reality is that this is the wrong means to do so. Not to mention fierce competition by PC gaming in China, it is enormous over there.
I think that a lot of people get upset with me sometimes because I’m suggesting, and have been for some time, that Nintendo are lost in the woods and are failing to get with the times and that they simply got too comfortable with the winning handheld formula and the enormous success of the Wii; causing them to lose all sense of direction when both ends are being beaten and/or marginalized. Scrambled eggs are not everyone’s choice.
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The reasons I've ascribed that position to you are set out above, and to be perfectly honest I certainly can't reconcile those statements with any other logically consistent position, although I now think it's more that you're beginning from a completely flawed premise and thus arriving at an equally flawed conclusion. That sounded less condescending in my head. I will add here though that it doesn't sound to me at all that Nintendo is expecting another Wii with this strategy hoping, sure, but all prodcuers dream of that for their product even when they don't honestly expect it, and honestly I'm not sure where you got that impression. Instead, they're simply trying to get in early on the new markets, while doing so in a manner that is both profitable and effective. In other words, they're saying that they'll be trying to do what anyone in their position should be trying to do.
I'll conclude with an aside for the last set of comments: you're correct that certain people on this site get upset when you suggest Nintendo has lost its way. I don't think it's a stretch to say that I'm far from being one of those people. It'd simply be far too hypocritical of me to do so. But manpower issues aside I don't see much here that causes me to shake my head and wonder how they've fallen so far.