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Forums - Sales - Global HW/SW April 26th up!

kirby007 on 06 May 2014

NPD=amazon data hmmmm what could this possibly tell us



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

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Fusioncode on 06 May 2014
AlphaCielago said:
Fusioncode said:
Japan really is keeping the Vita alive, if SCEE and SCEA showed the same kind of dedication that SCEJ has then the system could have been a solid seller. Maybe not 3DS levels but better than this. Ah well. WiiU... well I expect sales to drop even further with people waiting for the Mario Kart bundle.

What dedication? The only thing they have to offer is one game a year and some marketing. The rest is done by third parties, no one will buy a Vita for most of those games.

Getting 3rd parties on board IS dedication. Aside from indies Sony gave up on getting support for the system after the first year. SCEJ didn't and got massive games like Sword Art Online and Hatsune Miku on the system. Do you Japanese devs just woke up one day and decided to support the system? Sony made it happen. I wish they could do the same in the west. 



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

impertinence on 06 May 2014
Bunchedundies said:
impertinence said:

Actually, anyone who can think logically will see that previous trends are not proof of what will happen in the future. 

So you mean stats trends, sales history mean squat??? LMAO, no. Tell that to any economist they will laugh you out of the room, ther eis no reason for no reason this month the x1 will magically start outselling ps4, something drastic like a price cut would ened to happen for that, it's obvious and common sense.

 

Adjustments last week only show every who said so were right.

Don't make stuff up, all I said was that it does not follwo logically that because a certain situation was true one month that it will be next month. If it was possibly to logically infer sales numbers based on historic trends, we wouldn't need trackers like this and NPD since the numbers could be logically inferred anyway.

That doesn't mean that sales trends and historical data doesn't mean anything, all it means is that these tools are indicators of what will happen, not proof. And no, a sudden shift in market preferences is not impossible and it is in no way obvious and common sense that relative sales numbers wouldn't fluctuate from motnh to month.



impertinence on 06 May 2014
ethomaz said:

impertinence said:

Actually, anyone who can think logically will see that previous trends are not proof of what will happen in the future.

It is done guys... we just killed the modern economy right here the world is doomed.

The level of thinking in this post is not impressive. Please explain how you make the jump from what I said to what you are stating. It is truely baffeling to me that such a response can be produced by a (assumed) rational mind. 



ethomaz on 06 May 2014
kirby007 said:
NPD=amazon data hmmmm what could this possibly tell us

Think about Amazon like an electoral research... you don't need to interview all population in a country to make a estimate of who will win with a margin of error.

Amazon give you that.

We just needs to find what is the Amazon margin of error compared with the orveall market... but you can't deny anymore Amazon shows a trend that others retails faced.

Fictional numbers...

Amazon ratio: 2:1

So with the margin of error the others retail can be:

Gamestop: 1.9-2.1:1
Target: 1.8-2.2:1
Warlmart: 2.0-2.2:1

You see? The overall retail sales split between retails is close to what Amazon shows at the end... that's why you can use the Amazon trend to estimate others retails sales and at least to be pretty close to the overall NPD winner.

The  margin of erros only will affect the overall winner if the sales are close to each other like 180k vs 190k but while PS4 had a good magin of sales ahead Xbone like 300k vs 250k the amazon margin of error (that we don't know) won't change the overall winner.



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Bunchedundies on 06 May 2014
impertinence said:
Bunchedundies said:
impertinence said:

Actually, anyone who can think logically will see that previous trends are not proof of what will happen in the future. 

So you mean stats trends, sales history mean squat??? LMAO, no. Tell that to any economist they will laugh you out of the room, ther eis no reason for no reason this month the x1 will magically start outselling ps4, something drastic like a price cut would ened to happen for that, it's obvious and common sense.

 

Adjustments last week only show every who said so were right.

Don't make stuff up, all I said was that it does not follwo logically that because a certain situation was true one month that it will be next month. If it was possibly to logically infer sales numbers based on historic trends, we wouldn't need trackers like this and NPD since the numbers could be logically inferred anyway.

That doesn't mean that sales trends and historical data doesn't mean anything, all it means is that these tools are indicators of what will happen, not proof. And no, a sudden shift in market preferences is not impossible and it is in no way obvious and common sense that relative sales numbers wouldn't fluctuate from motnh to month.

ttoally disagre, consumer sentiment does not change unless there is a market force at play to change it, the x1 actually went BACK UP to 499, anyone can see it is assinine to think x1 will outsell ps4 after going back up 50 bucks. You are saying all these economical experts, trending, statistical analysis is for Naught? PS always outsells xbox WW, this gen is no different......nothing except something drastic will change that so no it is no logical to rthink out of nowhere the market will change.



ethomaz on 06 May 2014

impertinence said:

The level of thinking in this post is not impressive. Please explain how you make the jump from what I said to what you are stating. It is truely baffeling to me that such a response can be produced by a (assumed) rational mind.

All the real world economy is based in "previous trends as proof of what will happen in the future"

This is the base of statistics.



DerNebel on 06 May 2014
celador said:
Fusioncode said:
Is PS4 still supply constrained in most European countries? The number seems a bit low.


It's very difficult to say because we hear little about Europe.  According to people on various forums, as of a few weeks ago some countries,such as Germany and Netherlands, were short of supply.  Amazon UK is currently out of PS4 solus stock but it's only for a few days.  I'd say there probably are small shortages here and there

Still haven't seen a single one in real life in Germany and when Amazon gets stock we still get this:

http://www.amazon.de/gp/bestsellers/videogames/ref=sv_vg_0

I have no idea why Sony apparently has Germany so low on their priority list :D



Azhraell on 06 May 2014

After the adjustments of last week, I won't trust this wekkly charts till npd.



celador on 06 May 2014
DerNebel said:
celador said:
Fusioncode said:
Is PS4 still supply constrained in most European countries? The number seems a bit low.


It's very difficult to say because we hear little about Europe.  According to people on various forums, as of a few weeks ago some countries,such as Germany and Netherlands, were short of supply.  Amazon UK is currently out of PS4 solus stock but it's only for a few days.  I'd say there probably are small shortages here and there

Still haven't seen a single one in real life in Germany and when Amazon gets stock we still get this:

http://www.amazon.de/gp/bestsellers/videogames/ref=sv_vg_0

I have no idea why Sony apparently has Germany so low on their priority list :D

Does seem strange.  If PS4 is selling sub-150k week on week there really shouldn't be supply issues anywhere.