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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Wii U sales trend may be just as expected if we look at Nintendo's home console sales.

 

Did you expect Wii U's current sales trend?

Yes 127 45.85%
 
No 95 34.30%
 
Yo Mama 49 17.69%
 
Total:271
RolStoppable said:

The NES and Gameboy were once in a lifetime successes too, so Nintendo pulled it off four times already. Too often to write it off as coincidence or non-repeatable. The GBA isn't as clearcut (it had absolutely no viable competition at the time), so its strong sales may have just come from Nintendo commanding a true monopoly over the handheld market at the time.

You're making the mistake that Nintendo success is gimmick-driven when it's not; the fact that old ways of play could succeed at the same level as new ways on both the Wii and DS should make that clear. Your other mistake is the assumption that the Wii U followed the same strategy as the Wii; it only did if you make a very shallow analysis, but if you dig deeper, then the Wii and Wii U are like night and day.

I agree that Sony played it safe. They reverted back to what works for them after the colossal PS3 failure. Sony was smart enough to do what made the PS1 a success. Cerny's "time to triangle" chart illustrates it best. Nintendo, on the other hand, abandoned what works for them and the resulting problems became only worse due to the fact that they tied expensive gimmicks to their eighth generation home console and handheld.

I disagree slightly. The Big 3 all tried what they thought would work, MS and Nintendo thought motion/touch controls would have the smae effect as last time. In contrast, the PS4 is almost completly unrelated to its predecessors, PS1-PS3 was Kutargi's vision including exotic tech so that multiplats would develop for PlayStation rather than other systems, media support to get casaul support. It backfired heavily with the PS3, and so with the PS4, it was ironically the first time "Sony had played it safe"



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but wii u will not even outsell n64 maybe it won't even outsell gc



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

I've come to this realization too in these past few months. It's almost to make me not want to buy a Wii U, because doing would be rewarding bad behavior. :P

But I'll do it anyway because I need X in my life.



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curl-6 said:

The standard Wii has dropped drastically in price since launch. So have PS3, 360, and before that Gamecube, PS2...

Hell, Premium Wii U itself has already dropped by $50.

It really hasn't.  It's still 52% of the price it launched at.  The Wii was sold with a big profit margin from the very start (estimates of a ~$160 BOM).  It is very unlikely that the margins stayed the same, there is pretty much no way the manufacturing cost is down to $40.  The disc drive, power supply, and manufacturing costs are probably similar or potentially higher than they were in 2006.  Shipping costs have also likely increased.

The Premium Wii U is 32GB of flash memory, games, and some plastic stands.  While they add value, they add very little in terms of cost.  It's probably more telling that they haven't gone below $299 yet.



ICStats said:

RolStoppable said:
It's simple, really. Everytime Nintendo decides to fight over the existing market, their sales decline. That's because they turn off a good chunk of their audience in the process. The Wii only looks like the only anomaly, because the NES is the starting point. If the NES were in the middle, it would be an anomaly too. Both the NES and Wii were about making gaming more popular, so the hardware and software was designed accordingly. With the other four systems Nintendo didn't bother to ask how they can get more people to play video games. The most recent one, the Wii U, was all about winning third parties and the hardcore gamer back, i.e. the existing market (see E3 2011 reveal).

You can apply the same thing to the handheld market. Nintendo's sales kept rising as long as they didn't get into a fight with other companies and let them dictate how things are done. The GBA sold only 80m, but it did it in six years as opposed to the 120m of the GB/GBC in twelve years; and the DS did 150m in seven years. But then came the 3DS and Nintendo was all about going after the PSP market; suddenly it wasn't about making video games more popular, but getting a bigger chunk of the teenager demographic which was Nintendo's weakest point (and Sony's strongest). The irony is that while Nintendo succeeded at taking notable chunks of Sony's market (Monster Hunter exclusivity being an important piece of the puzzle), they are losing out everywhere else, hence the decline. That should make you realize how important the DS was. Sony was readying the PSP, yet Nintendo decided that they won't go to war. They didn't fall into that trap, even though the threat was immense.

Ok, I can buy that Nintendo has had more success when they worked on making gaming more popular instead of competing head-to-head.

The issue though is it's not that easy to replicate it.  To have success like DS & Wii it's not just about not making mistakes, and having the right mindset.  It took right ideas at the right time, and a bit of luck.

Nintendo achieved what seems like once in a lifetime success on TWO devices at the same time (DS & Wii) so I think Nintendo (and the world) thought that they had the magic touch.  They have the infalliable talent to keep doing that again and again.  They would just play to their own beat, make another low power (~35 Watt) console with a new way to play (2nd screen) and repeat the Wii's success.  Only they can't, it's not going to be easy to find that unique feature (aka gimmick) again.  Seems obvious in hindsight that relying on something new without having a competitive fallback is a super risky strategy.

Contrast to the PS4 which Sony played as safe as possible in terms of innovation.  Instead they worked on checking all the boxes, making game developers happy and focusing on what core gamers are asking for as #1 priority, while new things, PS Now Cloud & VR are not day 1 core things forced on users.


The gimmick is about the games, though. You have to think about what kind of games people want to play, and then build a gimmick that enables that. Wii U's design philosophy seemed to put the cart before the horse (resolving that people might want off-screen play, but then how do we make that meaningful?) Whereas with Wii you can see games like Wii Sports or Metroid Prime 3 making meaningful, early contributions. A checkbox approach is a good, safe way to make a console perform well, but to build a system that will revolve around true, killer apps, you need to think about software design first.

Wii U, really didn't do that.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

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RolStoppable said:
ICStats said:

Ok, I can buy that Nintendo has had more success when they worked on making gaming more popular instead of competing head-to-head.

The issue though is it's not that easy to replicate it.  To have success like DS & Wii it's not just about not making mistakes, and having the right mindset.  It took right ideas at the right time, and a bit of luck.

Nintendo achieved what seems like once in a lifetime success on TWO devices at the same time (DS & Wii) so I think Nintendo (and the world) thought that they had the magic touch.  They have the infalliable talent to keep doing that again and again.  They would just play to their own beat, make another low power (~35 Watt) console with a new way to play (2nd screen) and repeat the Wii's success.  Only they can't, it's not going to be easy to find that unique feature (aka gimmick) again.  Seems obvious in hindsight that relying on something new without having a competitive fallback is a super risky strategy.

Contrast to the PS4 which Sony played as safe as possible in terms of innovation.  Instead they worked on checking all the boxes, making game developers happy and focusing on what core gamers are asking for as #1 priority, while new things, PS Now Cloud & VR are not day 1 core things forced on users.

The NES and Gameboy were once in a lifetime successes too, so Nintendo pulled it off four times already. Too often to write it off as coincidence or non-repeatable. The GBA isn't as clearcut (it had absolutely no viable competition at the time), so its strong sales may have just come from Nintendo commanding a true monopoly over the handheld market at the time.

You're making the mistake that Nintendo success is gimmick-driven when it's not; the fact that old ways of play could succeed at the same level as new ways on both the Wii and DS should make that clear. Your other mistake is the assumption that the Wii U followed the same strategy as the Wii; it only did if you make a very shallow analysis, but if you dig deeper, then the Wii and Wii U are like night and day.

It's kind of reaching to say NES succeeded for the same reasons as the Wii.  NES was a solid console people loved for years; the Wii to put it nicely, was not.  But even if we entertain the idea that they were successful for the same reasons - 25 years is a long time to call it repeatable.  Also failing (to certain degree) immediately after DS & Wii is a reason to not call it repeatable.

Nintendo's problem has been competition.  Their success with the traditional formula (including NES) shrunk due to competition with Sega, Sony & MS, and then they switched to the gimmick-driven strategy.

Yes I don't mind making the mistake that Nintendo's success last gen was gimmick-driven.  Gotta stand up for what you believe in :P



My 8th gen collection

Mr Khan said:
ICStats said:

RolStoppable said:
It's simple, really. Everytime Nintendo decides to fight over the existing market, their sales decline. That's because they turn off a good chunk of their audience in the process. The Wii only looks like the only anomaly, because the NES is the starting point. If the NES were in the middle, it would be an anomaly too. Both the NES and Wii were about making gaming more popular, so the hardware and software was designed accordingly. With the other four systems Nintendo didn't bother to ask how they can get more people to play video games. The most recent one, the Wii U, was all about winning third parties and the hardcore gamer back, i.e. the existing market (see E3 2011 reveal).

You can apply the same thing to the handheld market. Nintendo's sales kept rising as long as they didn't get into a fight with other companies and let them dictate how things are done. The GBA sold only 80m, but it did it in six years as opposed to the 120m of the GB/GBC in twelve years; and the DS did 150m in seven years. But then came the 3DS and Nintendo was all about going after the PSP market; suddenly it wasn't about making video games more popular, but getting a bigger chunk of the teenager demographic which was Nintendo's weakest point (and Sony's strongest). The irony is that while Nintendo succeeded at taking notable chunks of Sony's market (Monster Hunter exclusivity being an important piece of the puzzle), they are losing out everywhere else, hence the decline. That should make you realize how important the DS was. Sony was readying the PSP, yet Nintendo decided that they won't go to war. They didn't fall into that trap, even though the threat was immense.

Ok, I can buy that Nintendo has had more success when they worked on making gaming more popular instead of competing head-to-head.

The issue though is it's not that easy to replicate it.  To have success like DS & Wii it's not just about not making mistakes, and having the right mindset.  It took right ideas at the right time, and a bit of luck.

Nintendo achieved what seems like once in a lifetime success on TWO devices at the same time (DS & Wii) so I think Nintendo (and the world) thought that they had the magic touch.  They have the infalliable talent to keep doing that again and again.  They would just play to their own beat, make another low power (~35 Watt) console with a new way to play (2nd screen) and repeat the Wii's success.  Only they can't, it's not going to be easy to find that unique feature (aka gimmick) again.  Seems obvious in hindsight that relying on something new without having a competitive fallback is a super risky strategy.

Contrast to the PS4 which Sony played as safe as possible in terms of innovation.  Instead they worked on checking all the boxes, making game developers happy and focusing on what core gamers are asking for as #1 priority, while new things, PS Now Cloud & VR are not day 1 core things forced on users.


The gimmick is about the games, though. You have to think about what kind of games people want to play, and then build a gimmick that enables that. Wii U's design philosophy seemed to put the cart before the horse (resolving that people might want off-screen play, but then how do we make that meaningful?) Whereas with Wii you can see games like Wii Sports or Metroid Prime 3 making meaningful, early contributions. A checkbox approach is a good, safe way to make a console perform well, but to build a system that will revolve around true, killer apps, you need to think about software design first.

Wii U, really didn't do that.

True, it's just easier said than done.  It's not going to be easy to find the next big thing in gameplay every 5 or 6 years.



My 8th gen collection

ICStats said:
RolStoppable said:
ICStats said:

Ok, I can buy that Nintendo has had more success when they worked on making gaming more popular instead of competing head-to-head.

The issue though is it's not that easy to replicate it.  To have success like DS & Wii it's not just about not making mistakes, and having the right mindset.  It took right ideas at the right time, and a bit of luck.

Nintendo achieved what seems like once in a lifetime success on TWO devices at the same time (DS & Wii) so I think Nintendo (and the world) thought that they had the magic touch.  They have the infalliable talent to keep doing that again and again.  They would just play to their own beat, make another low power (~35 Watt) console with a new way to play (2nd screen) and repeat the Wii's success.  Only they can't, it's not going to be easy to find that unique feature (aka gimmick) again.  Seems obvious in hindsight that relying on something new without having a competitive fallback is a super risky strategy.

Contrast to the PS4 which Sony played as safe as possible in terms of innovation.  Instead they worked on checking all the boxes, making game developers happy and focusing on what core gamers are asking for as #1 priority, while new things, PS Now Cloud & VR are not day 1 core things forced on users.

The NES and Gameboy were once in a lifetime successes too, so Nintendo pulled it off four times already. Too often to write it off as coincidence or non-repeatable. The GBA isn't as clearcut (it had absolutely no viable competition at the time), so its strong sales may have just come from Nintendo commanding a true monopoly over the handheld market at the time.

You're making the mistake that Nintendo success is gimmick-driven when it's not; the fact that old ways of play could succeed at the same level as new ways on both the Wii and DS should make that clear. Your other mistake is the assumption that the Wii U followed the same strategy as the Wii; it only did if you make a very shallow analysis, but if you dig deeper, then the Wii and Wii U are like night and day.

It's kind of reaching to say NES succeeded for the same reasons as the Wii.  NES was a solid console people loved for years; the Wii to put it nicely, was not.  But even if we entertain the idea that they were successful for the same reasons - 25 years is a long time to call it repeatable.  Also failing (to certain degree) immediately after DS & Wii is a reason to not call it repeatable.

Nintendo's problem has been competition.  Their success with the traditional formula (including NES) shrunk due to competition with Sega, Sony & MS, and then they switched to the gimmick-driven strategy.

Yes I don't mind making the mistake that Nintendo's success last gen was gimmick-driven.  Gotta stand up for what you believe in :P

The key to remember is that the NES was the first of its kind. The NES *created* the market it was in, which was then entered by Sega, re-entered by Atari, and others (flash-in-the-pan like Hudson, 3DO and SNK), then Sony and finally Microsoft. The Wii and the DS were "market creators" as well. It stands to follow that Nintendo is the most successful when they create rather than compete.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Max King of the Wild said:
Jay70sgamer said:
Nes= profitable
Super nes = profitable
N64=profitable
Wii=profitable
Wii u =more than likely profitable at end of generation
Nintendo does not care about who sells the most as long as a profit is being made......moral of story as long as nintendo as a company makes a profit on their consoles they could care less how their sales decline or how many consoles are sold that is the purpose of running a business to profit lol just saying


nintendo JUST met their last years projection. They are bundling sw like crazy and already cut the price 50 dollars.before that, they were losing money on each system sold. Now,  there plan is to bundle their biggest seller this year.... where are these profits going to come from? Nintendo does care about unit sales because that means more sw sold. less cost on production per unit and more profit. The Wii U is a money sink and having such low sales isnt helping one bit

The point is they met their projections,whether it be "just" made it or not and As someone stated production costs as time pass gets lower which allows them to make profits on bundles ..I'm sure the wii u is slightly cheaper to produce right now than when they released it nov 2012...also the nintendo is trying to sell as many wii u as they can so that third party may be willing to take a risk on releasing third party games  because the install base is larger  and also ,they will profit on the game being bundled because I believe they will still bundle mario kart 8in the usa @300 dollars and a super bundle for 350$ ...still making a profit on each bundle sold ...just saying...



F0X said:
I've come to this realization too in these past few months. It's almost to make me not want to buy a Wii U, because doing would be rewarding bad behavior. :P

But I'll do it anyway because I need X in my life.


buy it used