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Forums - Sony - My estimated specs of the PlayStation 5

Turkish said:

 And why would the tdp increase so significantly when the chips get smaller and more efficient. GPU TDP has been stagnant, it's been around ~250 watt for the last 5-6 years for high end cards.

Here are two articles that explain nicely what is industry currently dealing with when it comes to sub-28nm proccess.

http://electroiq.com/blog/2014/03/moores-law-has-stopped-at-28nm/
http://www.pcper.com/reviews/Editorial/Next-Gen-Graphics-and-Process-Migration-20-nm-and-Beyond

As I said earlier, I would expect to see 15TFLOPS GPU around 2018 for the similar price as what's inside PS4 right now, but I'm sceptical if they don't manage to switch to something new in time.

As for RAM, I remember a lot of naysayers on this very forum (always found that funny) saying how 8GB is insane and way too much for next-gen consoles before PS4 and XOne were revealed. While it is too early to predict what is going to be normal in 2018-19, 64GB really does not seem too much, IMO.



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HoloDust said:
Turkish said:

 And why would the tdp increase so significantly when the chips get smaller and more efficient. GPU TDP has been stagnant, it's been around ~250 watt for the last 5-6 years for high end cards.

Here are two articles that explain nicely what is industry currently dealing with when it comes to sub-28nm proccess.

http://electroiq.com/blog/2014/03/moores-law-has-stopped-at-28nm/
http://www.pcper.com/reviews/Editorial/Next-Gen-Graphics-and-Process-Migration-20-nm-and-Beyond

As I said earlier, I would expect to see 15TFLOPS GPU around 2018 for the similar price as what's inside PS4 right now, but I'm sceptical if they don't manage to switch to something new in time.

As for RAM, I remember a lot of naysayers on this very forum (always found that funny) saying how 8GB is insane and way too much for next-gen consoles before PS4 and XOne were revealed. While it is too early to predict what is going to be normal in 2018-19, 64GB really does not seem too much, IMO.


Thanks for the links, interesting read. I think silicon will not be replaced by graphene or other technology by the time PS5 comes out. Chips will not hit the node limits by 2020 with the way current ones are being delayed.



Nate4Drake said:

I think PS5 will be roughly 10 times more powerful than PS4, 32-64GB total system Ram.   2k resolution for Games, 4k for Movies.  Can't say that much, too early.


Why only 2K? We already can do 4K at 30fps with ~4tflops, can we?

PS5 with at least 10-15tflops (and better technology) will obviously target 4K (and easily IMO) for gaming and movies, exactly like PS4 targeted 1080p for games and succeeded, we still have only one game sub-1080p, an unoptimized launch game at 900p and at 60fps).

I really hope that Microsoft understand that and really try to release a 4K hardware this time. The problem with XB1 is not really the Tflops but more the inefficiency of the API (directs X is the culprit), the bad memory architecture (just see what Sucker punch can do with a ~100MB fast video framebuffer with Infamous SS) and number or ROPS.

What they could add this time is a hybrid SSD hard drive to improve IO access.



I dont want to think about it. I forked 400 euros for a PS4 just a month ago.



Turkish said:
TheJimbo1234 said:
Turkish said:

Sorry for being a decade too early, this is what I think will be the specs of the PS5:

Specs:
+10TFlops console
12-16 cores
56-64GB RAM 16x4 GiB GDDR6 memory chips (set to be introduced within 2-3 years, GDDR5 was introduced in 2008)

4K gaming will be possible, but QHD (2560x1440)/WQXGA+ (3200x1800) 16:9 resolutions will also be common in individual cases depending on the Virtual Reality support and if 4K proves too taxing. VR games will be 1440 or 1800p, 90-120fps.

~12GB RAM will be reserved for the OS, the footprint will decrease gradually over time.

Release: November 2019, 6 years after the launch of PS4. It might come out 2 years after Nintendo's next and 1 year after Xbone successor if MS wants to release a year earlier again if they're beaten badly this gen.

Motivation behind my estimates:

+10-12TFLOP: PS3 was ~300-400, PS4 is 1.95TFLOP so 5x increase, ofcourse AMD is bringing out 295X2 which is 11.5TFLOP, the card costs 1.5k dollars, but it will take more than 5 years before we see such a beast of a card become the mainstream standard (200-250 bucks) which is the tier of cards next gen consoles will feature. But the 295X2 will be ancient in terms of technology and features by 2019, by then the cards will be on newer memory and GCN version etc.

RAM: basically an increase of ~8x, this is half of what RAM increases of previous generations: PS2 32MB, PS3 512, PS4 8GB, I think a 16x increase(128GB) is a bit too much this time around.

12-16CPU cores: cpu's will have more cores to handle more tasks, AMD and Intel already provide cpu's with that many cores for server solutions.

 

 

Firsts for many in the industry:

-First time real ray tracing in games

-VR becoming mainstream, bundles with PS5, 4K OLED VR headset affordable

-4K gaming becoming mainstream

-CGI like graphics feasible by mid gen thanks to enormous amount of horse power and memory

 

 

What do you think?

That's pretty terrible and I think you need to do your homework before guessing like this.

The chance is that it will actually never be launched and it will go to cloud gaming. Also the huge change coming in 2016-17 with gpus and the increase in power needed for these cards will most likely kill the console. It would be better for everyone to pay $15 a month to access sme monolithic server Microsoft or Sony run.

That RAM volume is absurd, especially with 12GB for the OS. Why?! Where did you pull that random figure from? It will stay at 1GB as OS's are small.

4k will never become mainstream. Many houses in Europe and Japan are not big enough to have these 60 inch + TVs in. Also bluray is still 1080p and this won't change as the TVs are expected to upscale it.


I did my homework, but did you? Cloud gaming with next-next gen graphics is not gonna be a thing within the next decade, too many people that dont have the necessary connection, maybe most of Europe and America will have the necessary  connection sometime in 2020s but Playstation is a global brand that serves millions of people without the best connections, they will never introduce a PS5  that will be limited to only a handful of elites in the West.

Whats the huge change thats coming to gpus in 2016? And why would the tdp increase so significantly when the chips get smaller and more efficient. GPU TDP has been stagnant, it's been around ~250 watt for the last 5-6 years for high end cards.

The RAM volume seems fine to me, why would you need 3GB for the OS right now when 50MB was more than enough for last gen consoles? These kind of questions are silly to me, new technology, unforeseen  features and latest shit always get added no matter how hard you try to predict the future telling yourself that a fixed amount will be enough one day. It will not, never.

4K will become mainstream just like 480p, 720 and 1080p became mainstream. With enough time, the next technology will always become the standard. I can't believe there are actually people arguing that technology will stop evolving LOL.

You dont need 60" TV to enjoy 4K, 50" is more than enough to see the benefits, and the average TV screen size has been evolving to +50" the past decade despite our small homes. 4K has already started going mainstream, it is appearing on more monitors and tv's, not sure why you're arguing against technological advancement.

Check the role out globally of new consoles. This ties in with cloud gaming. Places with poor internet have just had the ps3 released at a huge price. They will not see the PS4 on sale until 2018+ and then cloud gaming until ~2021+, ergo working out very well for a staggered release of cloud gaming. The cloud gaming already being provided by the PS4 is clealry a test bed for this tech.

Consoles only consume 100 watts total meaning the performance difference between low to high end cards is becoming larger. The change in 2016 is the introduction (or so Nvidia hope) of complelety new architecture of the chip and port. This will (or so they hope) massively change performance and power consumption but again, cause a larger rift between high end and low end cards. It also will get to the point that it will not be economically viable or pratical to have these cards in a console as games have been lagging behind hardware for sometime. It would make far more sense to have a handful of hyper expensive cards run across a few dozen consoles.

No OS will get larger. There is no need for it. The issue with current CONSOLE OSs are the fancy extensions (vioce commands) and original dev kits shipping with too little memory. You have to remember that devs only found out about the full memory specs of the ps4 at the public press conference. hence why 4.5GB is dedicated memory, and more is flexible, but with current addressing issues. But as for memory and OS, windows, Linux, and iOS have no issue with ~1GB so why should the consoles stuggle?

You don't understand 4k do you? It is like 3D - redundant for 99% of people. Anything more than 1080p for 46 inch or less in a normal room is literally impossible to notice. Bluray doesn't do 4k. So why will 4k take off again? Also 50 inch is not average - where did you pull that figure from? That certainly is not the case in the UK as most people wpuld struggle to find 50 inches of wall space.



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TheJimbo1234 said:
Turkish said:
TheJimbo1234 said:
Turkish said:

Sorry for being a decade too early, this is what I think will be the specs of the PS5:

Specs:
+10TFlops console
12-16 cores
56-64GB RAM 16x4 GiB GDDR6 memory chips (set to be introduced within 2-3 years, GDDR5 was introduced in 2008)

4K gaming will be possible, but QHD (2560x1440)/WQXGA+ (3200x1800) 16:9 resolutions will also be common in individual cases depending on the Virtual Reality support and if 4K proves too taxing. VR games will be 1440 or 1800p, 90-120fps.

~12GB RAM will be reserved for the OS, the footprint will decrease gradually over time.

Release: November 2019, 6 years after the launch of PS4. It might come out 2 years after Nintendo's next and 1 year after Xbone successor if MS wants to release a year earlier again if they're beaten badly this gen.

Motivation behind my estimates:

+10-12TFLOP: PS3 was ~300-400, PS4 is 1.95TFLOP so 5x increase, ofcourse AMD is bringing out 295X2 which is 11.5TFLOP, the card costs 1.5k dollars, but it will take more than 5 years before we see such a beast of a card become the mainstream standard (200-250 bucks) which is the tier of cards next gen consoles will feature. But the 295X2 will be ancient in terms of technology and features by 2019, by then the cards will be on newer memory and GCN version etc.

RAM: basically an increase of ~8x, this is half of what RAM increases of previous generations: PS2 32MB, PS3 512, PS4 8GB, I think a 16x increase(128GB) is a bit too much this time around.

12-16CPU cores: cpu's will have more cores to handle more tasks, AMD and Intel already provide cpu's with that many cores for server solutions.

 

 

Firsts for many in the industry:

-First time real ray tracing in games

-VR becoming mainstream, bundles with PS5, 4K OLED VR headset affordable

-4K gaming becoming mainstream

-CGI like graphics feasible by mid gen thanks to enormous amount of horse power and memory

 

 

What do you think?

That's pretty terrible and I think you need to do your homework before guessing like this.

The chance is that it will actually never be launched and it will go to cloud gaming. Also the huge change coming in 2016-17 with gpus and the increase in power needed for these cards will most likely kill the console. It would be better for everyone to pay $15 a month to access sme monolithic server Microsoft or Sony run.

That RAM volume is absurd, especially with 12GB for the OS. Why?! Where did you pull that random figure from? It will stay at 1GB as OS's are small.

4k will never become mainstream. Many houses in Europe and Japan are not big enough to have these 60 inch + TVs in. Also bluray is still 1080p and this won't change as the TVs are expected to upscale it.


I did my homework, but did you? Cloud gaming with next-next gen graphics is not gonna be a thing within the next decade, too many people that dont have the necessary connection, maybe most of Europe and America will have the necessary  connection sometime in 2020s but Playstation is a global brand that serves millions of people without the best connections, they will never introduce a PS5  that will be limited to only a handful of elites in the West.

Whats the huge change thats coming to gpus in 2016? And why would the tdp increase so significantly when the chips get smaller and more efficient. GPU TDP has been stagnant, it's been around ~250 watt for the last 5-6 years for high end cards.

The RAM volume seems fine to me, why would you need 3GB for the OS right now when 50MB was more than enough for last gen consoles? These kind of questions are silly to me, new technology, unforeseen  features and latest shit always get added no matter how hard you try to predict the future telling yourself that a fixed amount will be enough one day. It will not, never.

4K will become mainstream just like 480p, 720 and 1080p became mainstream. With enough time, the next technology will always become the standard. I can't believe there are actually people arguing that technology will stop evolving LOL.

You dont need 60" TV to enjoy 4K, 50" is more than enough to see the benefits, and the average TV screen size has been evolving to +50" the past decade despite our small homes. 4K has already started going mainstream, it is appearing on more monitors and tv's, not sure why you're arguing against technological advancement.

Check the role out globally of new consoles. This ties in with cloud gaming. Places with poor internet have just had the ps3 released at a huge price. They will not see the PS4 on sale until 2018+ and then cloud gaming until ~2021+, ergo working out very well for a staggered release of cloud gaming. The cloud gaming already being provided by the PS4 is clealry a test bed for this tech.

Consoles only consume 100 watts total meaning the performance difference between low to high end cards is becoming larger. The change in 2016 is the introduction (or so Nvidia hope) of complelety new architecture of the chip and port. This will (or so they hope) massively change performance and power consumption but again, cause a larger rift between high end and low end cards. It also will get to the point that it will not be economically viable or pratical to have these cards in a console as games have been lagging behind hardware for sometime. It would make far more sense to have a handful of hyper expensive cards run across a few dozen consoles.

No OS will get larger. There is no need for it. The issue with current CONSOLE OSs are the fancy extensions (vioce commands) and original dev kits shipping with too little memory. You have to remember that devs only found out about the full memory specs of the ps4 at the public press conference. hence why 4.5GB is dedicated memory, and more is flexible, but with current addressing issues. But as for memory and OS, windows, Linux, and iOS have no issue with ~1GB so why should the consoles stuggle?

You don't understand 4k do you? It is like 3D - redundant for 99% of people. Anything more than 1080p for 46 inch or less in a normal room is literally impossible to notice. Bluray doesn't do 4k. So why will 4k take off again? Also 50 inch is not average - where did you pull that figure from? That certainly is not the case in the UK as most people wpuld struggle to find 50 inches of wall space.


Uh, Sony is bringing cloud gaming to the masses next year, the highest graphical fidelity it'll have are PS3 games. Sony will not release PS4 level of quality titles on PS Now after until PS5 drops otherwise it makes no sense to keep selling the PS4 hardware. In 6-7 years time the infrastructure in America and Europe might be sufficient enough for PS4 cloud gaming, it will most certainly not be enough for streaming PS5 quality titles, even if it is, only the lucky few with good connection will be elligible to stream that big chunk of data fast enough. Sony will not base their next big product on something a few people can enjoy.

No one is saying 12GB will be used by the OS, just that such an amount could be reserved initially with a hypothetical 56-64GB ram size.  We dont know what new technology can come out in the 2020s that a living room machine definetly must have. Windows uses 1GB memory? I have 16GB ram in my win7 pc, currently using 9.4GB ram, of 2.5GB to Firefox alone.

4K is the next big thing, anyone who says that current day technology is enough is delusional. Refer to threads made  6-7 years ago and see where technology stood back then and refer to this thread in 2020 and see how once few people thought they'd be stuck with 8-16GB ram, 1080p tv's, 2013 technology forever. 

 

 



The point with RAM is not how much you have, but how much you need, today in 95%+ of the cases you still don't need more than 4GB, even 8GB would become more or less useable only in 2015, with 16GB being the reasonable top until the new gen, mainly because PC, unlike consoles, also have VRAM on its own, combined they would move "the reasonable top" over the 20GB, but the majority would still have, and need, less than that.


I'm more interested in storage, last gen we went from 20GB to 500GB(almost got to the 1TB, actually), this gen - 500GB to ?(6TB, i guess(6TB HD coming out this year)), so i don't think someone would be going with SSD alone, it's still gonna be 10+ times more expensive, maybe SSHD, if there'll be some progress, or SSD(~500GB) with HDD(~10TB).



Nintendo 2018

English is not my native language.

Check the role out globally of new consoles. This ties in with cloud gaming. Places with poor internet have just had the ps3 released at a huge price. They will not see the PS4 on sale until 2018+ and then cloud gaming until ~2021+, ergo working out very well for a staggered release of cloud gaming. The cloud gaming already being provided by the PS4 is clealry a test bed for this tech.

Consoles only consume 100 watts total meaning the performance difference between low to high end cards is becoming larger. The change in 2016 is the introduction (or so Nvidia hope) of complelety new architecture of the chip and port. This will (or so they hope) massively change performance and power consumption but again, cause a larger rift between high end and low end cards. It also will get to the point that it will not be economically viable or pratical to have these cards in a console as games have been lagging behind hardware for sometime. It would make far more sense to have a handful of hyper expensive cards run across a few dozen consoles.

No OS will get larger. There is no need for it. The issue with current CONSOLE OSs are the fancy extensions (vioce commands) and original dev kits shipping with too little memory. You have to remember that devs only found out about the full memory specs of the ps4 at the public press conference. hence why 4.5GB is dedicated memory, and more is flexible, but with current addressing issues. But as for memory and OS, windows, Linux, and iOS have no issue with ~1GB so why should the consoles stuggle?

You don't understand 4k do you? It is like 3D - redundant for 99% of people. Anything more than 1080p for 46 inch or less in a normal room is literally impossible to notice. Bluray doesn't do 4k. So why will 4k take off again? Also 50 inch is not average - where did you pull that figure from? That certainly is not the case in the UK as most people wpuld struggle to find 50 inches of wall space.


No. The PS4 under heavy load during peaks moments with a launch game (KZSF) already consumes 150W, others PS4 games have peaks of 139W. XB1 I believe consumes 120W with Ryse.

In fact I believe the cooling system of the PS4 is a masterpiece, 150W is a lot to cool with such a small box.

EDIT: 150W for PS4 is not really far from the at times really excessive 185W off the hot and unreliable launch X360. I don't think it's fair to compare with the launch PS3 because this model had a real complete PS2 hardware inside.



globalisateur said:


Why only 2K? We already can do 4K at 30fps with ~4tflops, can we?

PS5 with at least 10-15tflops (and better technology) will obviously target 4K (and easily IMO) for gaming and movies, exactly like PS4 targeted 1080p for games and succeeded, we still have only one game sub-1080p, an unoptimized launch game at 900p and at 60fps).

I really hope that Microsoft understand that and really try to release a 4K hardware this time. The problem with XB1 is not really the Tflops but more the inefficiency of the API (directs X is the culprit), the bad memory architecture (just see what Sucker punch can do with a ~100MB fast video framebuffer with Infamous SS) and number or ROPS.

What they could add this time is a hybrid SSD hard drive to improve IO access.


Teraflops aren't important.
Compare the Radeon 5870 against the 6970, the 6970 has a slightly lower TFLOP number, but the 6970 is easily faster, both despite having more flops than a 7870, looses to the 7870, see the trend here?

You need SERIOUS horsepower to render games at 4k and beyond, my old three Radeon 7970's in crossfire struggled in many games at max graphics at 7680x1440, that's roughly 20% more pixels than 4k.
Now I have Quad-Radeon 290's and it's no longer an issue, not because of the "Flops" but because of the video memory amount and bandwidth, an extra card helps a ton too.

This level of performance is not going to be mainstream performance anytime soon.
The GPU upgrade cycle has also slowed down in recent years, no longer are we seeing giant leaps and bounds every year, it's shifted over to bi-yearly.

You would more than likely be looking at a QHD standard for the next consoles, that's 2560x1440, which is a resolution that's gaining momentum across mobile and the PC industry.




www.youtube.com/@Pemalite

Pemalite said:
globalisateur said:


Why only 2K? We already can do 4K at 30fps with ~4tflops, can we?

PS5 with at least 10-15tflops (and better technology) will obviously target 4K (and easily IMO) for gaming and movies, exactly like PS4 targeted 1080p for games and succeeded, we still have only one game sub-1080p, an unoptimized launch game at 900p and at 60fps).

I really hope that Microsoft understand that and really try to release a 4K hardware this time. The problem with XB1 is not really the Tflops but more the inefficiency of the API (directs X is the culprit), the bad memory architecture (just see what Sucker punch can do with a ~100MB fast video framebuffer with Infamous SS) and number or ROPS.

What they could add this time is a hybrid SSD hard drive to improve IO access.


Teraflops aren't important.
Compare the Radeon 5870 against the 6970, the 6970 has a slightly lower TFLOP number, but the 6970 is easily faster, both despite having more flops than a 7870, looses to the 7870, see the trend here?

You need SERIOUS horsepower to render games at 4k and beyond, my old three Radeon 7970's in crossfire struggled in many games at max graphics at 7680x1440, that's roughly 20% more pixels than 4k.
Now I have Quad-Radeon 290's and it's no longer an issue, not because of the "Flops" but because of the video memory amount and bandwidth, an extra card helps a ton too.

This level of performance is not going to be mainstream performance anytime soon.
The GPU upgrade cycle has also slowed down in recent years, no longer are we seeing giant leaps and bounds every year, it's shifted over to bi-yearly.

You would more than likely be looking at a QHD standard for the next consoles, that's 2560x1440, which is a resolution that's gaining momentum across mobile and the PC industry.

Tflops are still the best way we have to compare consoles. It's not perfect, of course but it works very well IMO. Just look at the similar number of Tflops in very different technologies, if you add CPU + GPU with X360 and PS3, most recent games reached a good parity (GTA5) like the number of total Tflops would have told us.

A good another example would be the Wii-U but I won't go further here...

About 4K, a 4 Tflops card is already enought to have a locked 30fps in some 30fps multiplatforms games already like NFS or Batman. Just imagine what a better tech and 10~15tflops could do.

And crossfire tech is innefficient and shouldn't be used as a reference.