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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Mario Kart 8 will be the worst-selling Mario Kart ever. UPDATE: Nope, my prediction was wrong.

Shadowfest3 on 03 March 2014
Einsam_Delphin said:
Shadowfest3 said:
Einsam_Delphin said:
Shadowfest3 said:
Einsam_Delphin said:
Nintendo teamed up Pennzoil to promote this game, so outselling Super Circuit confirmed!

Any promotion of Mario Kart 8 is better than none in my opinion.  Lol



I wasn't entirely being sarcastic, though that's cause I believe it will outsell Super Circuit even without Pennzoil's support, which honestly wont do much as from what I read, the SXSW event only gets like 20,000 attendees. All this is really good for is giving us new details about the game, which I'm perfectly fine with! ^_^

Oh, I know and I was just going along with it.  I also believe MK 8 will sell better without Pennzoil's support.  Sorry, I didn't mean to come off as being rude.  


lol you didn't come off as rude at all!

Okay cool !!



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Kane1389 on 04 March 2014
zorg1000 said:
Kane1389 said:
zorg1000 said:
Kane1389 said:
zorg1000 said:
Kane1389 said:
zorg1000 said:
Kane1389 said:
Rogerioandrade said:
Even if it sell around 5-6 million, considering the size of the market today it will do well enough.


That would require almost 100% attach rate of the game...not happening. It'll be lucky if it crosses 4 million


Its at 5.8 million right now according to Vgchartz and shipments of 5.86 million as of Dec 31, probably over 6 million by now. Do u honestly believe Wii U will ship/sell zero units from this point on?


It wont sell enough for this game to hit 6 million, I believe that

Thats fine but thats not what u said. U said it would have close to a 100% attach rate in order to sell that much which is not true. Wii U would literally have to be discontinued now in order for it to not pass 6 million.

For the last 3 generations the home console version of Mario Kart has had roughly a 30-35% attach ratio. Assuming that this trend continues Wii U would need a lifetime install base of about 15-17 million in order for Mario Kart to sell 5-6 million. Im not saying this scenario is gauranteed to happen but its def a realistic number for both of those to sell based on Wii U current hardware and software sales.

I assumed for some reason the dude was talkimg about yearly sales


That still doesnt make sense. Even if Mario Kart sold 5-6 million this year it wouldnt be 100% attach rate unless again u assume Wii U will be discontinued starting now. Its just under 6 million with 10 months left to go, by the end of the year were looking at a minumum of 8 million and up to 10 million or so which would give Mario Kart anywhere from 50-75% attach ratio with sales of 5-6 million this year.

Ur either really bad at math or make posts without actually thinking them through.d


Or maybe you're just really bad at reading? 

I clearly said ''almost'' in my first post, meaning that I wasnt talking about 100% attach rate, but anywhere from 99-75% attach rate. But i guess you really wanna argue about this?

Yea cuz 50-75 is sooo close to 100. This isnt the first time I have called u out on making a false statement followed by u changing ur answer.

Holy shit, you are getting annoying. I never said 50%. I said 99% to 75%. And you accuse me of changing answers...

Anyway, Im done here



zorg1000 on 04 March 2014
Kane1389 said:
zorg1000 said:
Kane1389 said:
zorg1000 said:
Kane1389 said:
zorg1000 said:
Kane1389 said:
zorg1000 said:
Kane1389 said:
Rogerioandrade said:
Even if it sell around 5-6 million, considering the size of the market today it will do well enough.


That would require almost 100% attach rate of the game...not happening. It'll be lucky if it crosses 4 million


Its at 5.8 million right now according to Vgchartz and shipments of 5.86 million as of Dec 31, probably over 6 million by now. Do u honestly believe Wii U will ship/sell zero units from this point on?


It wont sell enough for this game to hit 6 million, I believe that

Thats fine but thats not what u said. U said it would have close to a 100% attach rate in order to sell that much which is not true. Wii U would literally have to be discontinued now in order for it to not pass 6 million.

For the last 3 generations the home console version of Mario Kart has had roughly a 30-35% attach ratio. Assuming that this trend continues Wii U would need a lifetime install base of about 15-17 million in order for Mario Kart to sell 5-6 million. Im not saying this scenario is gauranteed to happen but its def a realistic number for both of those to sell based on Wii U current hardware and software sales.

I assumed for some reason the dude was talkimg about yearly sales


That still doesnt make sense. Even if Mario Kart sold 5-6 million this year it wouldnt be 100% attach rate unless again u assume Wii U will be discontinued starting now. Its just under 6 million with 10 months left to go, by the end of the year were looking at a minumum of 8 million and up to 10 million or so which would give Mario Kart anywhere from 50-75% attach ratio with sales of 5-6 million this year.

Ur either really bad at math or make posts without actually thinking them through.d


Or maybe you're just really bad at reading? 

I clearly said ''almost'' in my first post, meaning that I wasnt talking about 100% attach rate, but anywhere from 99-75% attach rate. But i guess you really wanna argue about this?

Yea cuz 50-75 is sooo close to 100. This isnt the first time I have called u out on making a false statement followed by u changing ur answer.

Holy shit, you are getting annoying. I never said 50%. I said 99% to 75%. And you accuse me of changing answers...

Anyway, Im done here


Im sorry that im being rude/annoying but im just trying to point out to u that ur math does not add up. How are u coming up with this 75-99% figure?

My earlier post explains how the attach ratio would be in the 50-75% range if Mario Kart sells 5-6 million this year. So again im sorry for being rude but ur numbers do not add up.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Lonely_Dolphin on 04 March 2014

Woah! Tame your quote trees people!



Wright on 29 October 2015

I'll have to necrobump and update this thread with sad info.

My prediction sucks and it was wrong all along.

 

Since VGC hasn't updated the numbers, one sweep at Nintendo's Software Sales Unit data tells us all that we need to know.

Mario Kart for WiiU is at 5.87 total sales.

If VGC is correct, then we have that the lowest-selling game was Super Circuit:

7 Mario Kart: Super Circuit GBA 2001 Racing Nintendo 2.62 1.64 0.99 0.23 5.47

 

MK for WiiU beat it. Hence, it's no longer the worst-selling Mario Kart.

 



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PAOerfulone on 29 October 2015

At this point, it's safe to say that it'll also outsell Double Dash.
And if it's legs continue to last and be impressive for years even after NX launched, then it could outsell Super Mario Kart on SNES.



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Wright on 29 October 2015
PAOerfulone said:
At this point, it's safe to say that it'll also outsell Double Dash.
And if it's legs continue to last and be impressive for years even after NX launched, then it could outsell Super Mario Kart on SNES.


Hmmm, who knows. NX might pose a threat to WiiU software's legs.



Lonely_Dolphin on 29 October 2015

Props for owning up to it, but yeah, what a silly prediction that was. :L



tbone51 on 29 October 2015
Kane1389 said:
Rogerioandrade said:
Even if it sell around 5-6 million, considering the size of the market today it will do well enough.


That would require almost 100% attach rate of the game...not happening. It'll be lucky if it crosses 4 million


How lucky is mk8? ;p



atomicblue on 29 October 2015
Wright said:
PAOerfulone said:
At this point, it's safe to say that it'll also outsell Double Dash.
And if it's legs continue to last and be impressive for years even after NX launched, then it could outsell Super Mario Kart on SNES.


Hmmm, who knows. NX might pose a threat to WiiU software's legs.


That really depends on when NX comes out, and what exactly NX turns out to be (since most things are still speculation and rumours).

Most of what I've been seeing seems to be predictions for a Wii U successor in last 2017 (which would make sense given their history). A lot of copies of MK8 can sell in a couple more years, especially since Nintendo haven't done an official price cut yet.