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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 ACHIEVED what Wii couldn't (50 + % Marketshare May 2015)

Zero999 on 25 February 2014
Fusioncode said:
Zero999 said:

are we in the late 90's/early 20's? was mario kart as big at the time? did N64/gc release first?

and I'm not saying mario kart is the sole thing will keep wii u. I'm saying that whatever lead ps4 manages to get (if it gets) should be taken back after mario kart 8 releases. what happens beyond is more uncertain future.

Ok by that logic NSMBU should have catapulted the WiiU to massive success. I mean earlier games sold nearly 30 million on the Wii and DS, why didn't it have the same impact on the WiiU? What about Wii Fit U? The earlier games sold over 20m each, why isn't it saving the WiiU considering how successful the series was?

I could go on but I made my point. Just because a game had massive success on the Wii, does not translate to massive success on the WiiU. 

This was already discussed to hell and back. nsmbu did a good job at launch but it isn't a hardware mover like mario kart.



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Fusioncode on 25 February 2014
Zero999 said:
Fusioncode said:
Zero999 said:

are we in the late 90's/early 20's? was mario kart as big at the time? did N64/gc release first?

and I'm not saying mario kart is the sole thing will keep wii u. I'm saying that whatever lead ps4 manages to get (if it gets) should be taken back after mario kart 8 releases. what happens beyond is more uncertain future.

Ok by that logic NSMBU should have catapulted the WiiU to massive success. I mean earlier games sold nearly 30 million on the Wii and DS, why didn't it have the same impact on the WiiU? What about Wii Fit U? The earlier games sold over 20m each, why isn't it saving the WiiU considering how successful the series was?

I could go on but I made my point. Just because a game had massive success on the Wii, does not translate to massive success on the WiiU. 

This was already discussed to hell and back. nsmbu did a good job at launch but it isn't a hardware mover like mario kart.

Oh why do I even bother...



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

Zero999 on 25 February 2014
Seece said:
Zero999 said:
Seece said:

PS4 is supply constrained in the west. It's baseline isn't 125k, we don't know what it is until it's in plentiful supply. So even if the Japan baseline is 10k, PS4 is still going to outsell WiiU 100k a week. By the time MK comes out PS4 is going to be 1m+ ahead of WiiU, MK isn't going to push that many consoles. WiiU barely managed 1m over the holiday season.

now you're thinking wii u will go back to 40k imedeately after dk releases? and what the wii u did or did not in the holidays doesn't affect MK's power.

ps4's baseline should also lower considerably.

During the holidays, week of Super Mario 3D World, WiiU barely passed 100k. (http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41602/Global/)

Why you think DK of all games is going to give WiiU a permanant and decent boost is beyond me, there is nothing to suggest it will.

WiiU's baseline will go below 40k, back to where it was last year, sub 30k.

Why will PS4's baseline lower? There is nothing that suggests that either, it is supply constrained, it's going to go up not down.

You were also way off on Japan launch, you said 140k? Did 320k.

The problem with the WiiU is the WiiU itself, so no price cuts and games will propel it to reasonable levels. It's been on the market for 16 months now, 2 holidays, a price cut and various blockbusters, yet it's all amounted to very little growth.

the problem with wii u are games. although better than before the software situation isn't ideal. and I'd hardly call two games as "various blockbusters".

after mario kart(and before too), It will be a LOOONG time before we see sub 30k numbers.



Seece on 25 February 2014
Zero999 said:
Seece said:
Zero999 said:
Seece said:

PS4 is supply constrained in the west. It's baseline isn't 125k, we don't know what it is until it's in plentiful supply. So even if the Japan baseline is 10k, PS4 is still going to outsell WiiU 100k a week. By the time MK comes out PS4 is going to be 1m+ ahead of WiiU, MK isn't going to push that many consoles. WiiU barely managed 1m over the holiday season.

now you're thinking wii u will go back to 40k imedeately after dk releases? and what the wii u did or did not in the holidays doesn't affect MK's power.

ps4's baseline should also lower considerably.

During the holidays, week of Super Mario 3D World, WiiU barely passed 100k. (http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41602/Global/)

Why you think DK of all games is going to give WiiU a permanant and decent boost is beyond me, there is nothing to suggest it will.

WiiU's baseline will go below 40k, back to where it was last year, sub 30k.

Why will PS4's baseline lower? There is nothing that suggests that either, it is supply constrained, it's going to go up not down.

You were also way off on Japan launch, you said 140k? Did 320k.

The problem with the WiiU is the WiiU itself, so no price cuts and games will propel it to reasonable levels. It's been on the market for 16 months now, 2 holidays, a price cut and various blockbusters, yet it's all amounted to very little growth.

the problem with wii u are games. although better than before the software situation isn't ideal. and I'd hardly call two games as "various blockbusters".

after mario kart(and before too), It will be a LOOONG time before we see sub 30k numbers.

DK isn't any bigger than what has come before it. Wii Fit, NSMB, 3D Mario ect ect all sold far far better than DK did last gen. We're already seeing the effect in Japan, it's nill. WiiU is down YOY in US and Japan (and only best to assume Europe too). So yes sub 30k will happen very soon.





 

freedquaker on 25 February 2014
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
I would cap market share around 50% for PS4. The competition is too strong for any higher.
with XB1 getting the majority of the remainder because of Marketing. 25 - 35%. The XB1 problems are significant but solvable.
Wii U 15% - 25. The Wii U's problem is poisonous.

There you go with a regional and global analysis and estimates for the market share of each console. Scientific and Calclated, instead of just ideas.

8the Generation Cumulative Market Share Watch

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=179057&page=1#

 

PS4 - Cumulative Market Share     XB1 - Cumulative Market Share  
Week Global US EU Japan   Week Global US EU Japan
ESTIMATE 54-68% 44-59% 60-77% 55-65%   ESTIMATE 19-30% 28-40-% 12-23% <6%
4-Jan-14 34.0% 33.6% 46.9% 0.0%   4-Jan-14 23.8% 31.4% 21.5% 0.0%
11-Jan-14 34.6% 34.0% 47.6% 0.0%   11-Jan-14 23.9% 31.5% 21.4% 0.0%
18-Jan-14 35.1% 34.3% 48.2% 0.0%   18-Jan-14 23.9% 31.6% 21.3% 0.0%
25-Jan-14 35.6% 34.7% 48.7% 0.0%   25-Jan-14 23.9% 31.7% 21.3% 0.0%
1-Feb-14 36.1% 35.2% 49.3% 0.0%   1-Feb-14 23.9% 31.7% 21.2% 0.0%
8-Feb-14 36.6% 35.5% 49.9% 0.0%   8-Feb-14 23.9% 31.6% 21.0% 0.0%
15-Feb-14 36.9% 35.7% 50.3% 0.0%   15-Feb-14 23.9% 31.7% 20.9% 0.0%

 

 

WiiU - Cumulative Market Share  
Week Global US EU Japan
ESTIMATE 10-20% 10-20% 10-20% 25-35%
4-Jan-14 42.2% 35.0% 31.6% 100.0%
11-Jan-14 41.5% 34.5% 31.0% 100.0%
18-Jan-14 41.0% 34.1% 30.4% 100.0%
25-Jan-14 40.5% 33.6% 30.0% 100.0%
1-Feb-14 39.9% 33.2% 29.5% 100.0%
8-Feb-14 39.5% 32.8% 29.1% 100.0%
15-Feb-14 39.2% 32.6% 28.8% 100.0%

 

XB1 vs PS4 Cumulative Market Share Watch

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178754&page=1

 

  XB1 & PS4 Only         XB1 & PS4 Only    
PS4 - Cumulative Market Share     XB1 - Cumulative Market Share  
Week Global US EU Japan   Week Global US EU Japan
ESTIMATE 67-76% 55-65% 75-85% >90%   ESTIMATE 24-33% 35-45% 15-25% <10%
4-Jan-14 58.9% 51.7% 68.6% -   4-Jan-14 41.1% 48.3% 31.4% -
11-Jan-14 59.2% 51.9% 69.0% -   11-Jan-14 40.8% 48.1% 31.0% -
18-Jan-14 59.5% 52.0% 69.3% -   18-Jan-14 40.5% 48.0% 30.7% -
25-Jan-14 59.8% 52.3% 69.6% -   25-Jan-14 40.2% 47.7% 30.4% -
1-Feb-14 60.1% 52.6% 70.0% -   1-Feb-14 39.9% 47.4% 30.0% -
8-Feb-14 60.5% 52.9% 70.4% -   8-Feb-14 39.5% 47.1% 29.6% -
15-Feb-14 60.7% 53.0% 70.7%     15-Feb-14 39.3% 47.0% 29.3% -


Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

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bigjon on 25 February 2014

Yes the wii had to try to do this against 2 successful consoles. The PS4 is competing against doomed and doomeder



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Azhraell on 25 February 2014

I had a good laugh with Zero's comments, thanks man. Seriously, Mario Kart or Smash are not pushing Wii u over PS4, get over it and move on.



Troll_Whisperer on 26 February 2014

I don't see a scenario in which PS4 doesn't reach 50% marketshare, to be honest.

Considering WiiU is gonna end up with very low numbers this gen, it almost becomes a 2-way race. X1 would have to sell nearly as much as PS4 for it not to reach 50%. MS might make inroads in NA, but let's face it, PS4 are gonna win by a very wide margin in Europe and Japan. That makes it practically impossible for X1 to approach PS4 numbers.



No troll is too much for me to handle. I rehabilitate trolls, I train people. I am the Troll Whisperer.

TheFallen on 28 February 2014

So with this week's numbers it is finally official on vgchartz that PS4 has the most marketshare (38.6%). It's gonna be interesting to see if and when the 50% barrier is breached.



mind on 28 February 2014
TheFallen said:
So with this week's numbers it is finally official on vgchartz that PS4 has the most marketshare (38.6%). It's gonna be interesting to see if and when the 50% barrier is breached.

It will be breached this year already, 60% marketshare is pretty much locked LT.



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