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Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2014 NPD Thread! - PS4: 271k, XBO: 141k, WiiU: 49k

binary solo on 14 February 2014
TheSource said:

I've got about 41.6m lifetime for Wii in the US, 41.1m for X360 in the US. If the X360 really sold less than 50k and Wii sold less than 25k, all off the sudden it looks like X360 outselling Wii cumulatively in the US is off the table again. The margins will only shrink on average with time as both remnants of the long tail collapse.

I really don't understand why people are so surprised with the low numbers, it was pretty obvious by mid-2011 that everything was going to decline very rapidly starting in 2012, and so all the new consoles really should have been out by December 2012.

PS3, by the way, is at 25.6m lifetime, so that <60k figure that  is being rumored is arguably worse than the X360 / Wii low figures as it's been on the market a short time and has the most users to sell to.

The figures for January imply Wii at < 0.3m, for 2014 in the US, PS3 at <0.8m and X360 at <0.65m

X1 more like 2-3m

PS4 - 4m-5m

Wii U -  0.7m

3DS - 2m-3m

That's a weird way to put it. The US market is saturated for Gen 7. Only a certain number of people are ever going to buy >1 console per generatrion so PS3 has essentially no market to sell to. If you figure at least 50% of Wii buyers are the blue ocean crowd then Wii/2+360+PS3 ~ gen 6 sales*2. So who among the "real" gamers is really left to buy PS3? And this is also why gen 7 consoles are dying super fast. And now that the 8th gen has started the fact PS3 has been on the market a shorter time is irrelevant. It's a new generation and that's what's taking all the mindshare now.

I think all the 7th gen consoles will have one more holiday in the major markets and then they will be discontinued. Some of the developing markets might stock the end of life units for a while longer, but from 2015 7th gen sales will effectively be zero.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

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thismeintiel on 14 February 2014
M.U.G.E.N said:
Xbox 360 < 50K
PS3 < 60K

Holy crap, quite the drop.  I also think it's pretty obvious MS knew last year was going to be the last time they could get retailers to take a large stock of 360s and got them to take as many as possible.  I don't believe there is any region's sales that justified that 3.5M shipped.  Looks like Q1 shipments are going to be extremely low, as well, given how sales are going.

And I guess Sony really did mean PS4+PS3 > everything else.  Pretty impressive.  And it would have been even larger if Sony could have gotten more stock out in the first few weeks of Jan.  Probably more like 2.5:1 against the One, or ~350K.



 

Aerys on 14 February 2014
MoHasanie said:
lucidium said:
MoHasanie said:
I think the PS4's sales aren't anything special, Considering the huge sales we keep hearing about, those numbers are kinda average. Everything else did bad so its making the PS4's sales look better than they actually are.

Nice downplay, but it applies to anything, for example, titanfall sales won't be as impressive they only seem so because other games did badly, the forums aren't that big they just seem that way because lots of others are smaller.

 

I'll be sure to look forward to you calling any successful result in future for your favored platform unimpressive and just a result of the competition doing badly.

I'm not downplaying anything. I just don't think 271k sales is good. I suppose for some of January it was out of stock so it would have certainly crossed 300k had it been stock for the whole of January but that's not so great either since in December we heard many people claiming how much higher the PS4 would have been had it been in stock. Some people made statements that the PS4 could have sold twice as much had it had enough stock in NA. Well now its in stock and  its sales aren't that impressive. 

 271k sales with supply issues isnt good enough even if it's more than PS2 adn 360 oo their first january?

Only 1 console sold more than PS4 ,  Wii, and this is because it had much more stock.

 

Total downplay.

Now tell me how a console with no stock could have more impressive sales than it is already? You  dont know how many it would have sold if it was in stock, it could have done 300, 400, more, we dont know, so stop your downplay .



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

Soundwave on 14 February 2014
Aerys said:
MoHasanie said:
lucidium said:
MoHasanie said:
I think the PS4's sales aren't anything special, Considering the huge sales we keep hearing about, those numbers are kinda average. Everything else did bad so its making the PS4's sales look better than they actually are.

Nice downplay, but it applies to anything, for example, titanfall sales won't be as impressive they only seem so because other games did badly, the forums aren't that big they just seem that way because lots of others are smaller.

 

I'll be sure to look forward to you calling any successful result in future for your favored platform unimpressive and just a result of the competition doing badly.

I'm not downplaying anything. I just don't think 271k sales is good. I suppose for some of January it was out of stock so it would have certainly crossed 300k had it been stock for the whole of January but that's not so great either since in December we heard many people claiming how much higher the PS4 would have been had it been in stock. Some people made statements that the PS4 could have sold twice as much had it had enough stock in NA. Well now its in stock and  its sales aren't that impressive. 

 271k sales with supply issues isnt good enough even if 360(winner of last gen there) sold less on it's first january ? Total downplay. Only 2 consoles sold more than PS4 on their first january, PS2 and Wii, and this is  because they had no supply issues.

Now tell me how a console with no stock could have more impressive sales than it is already? You  dont know how many it would have sold if it was in stock, it could have done 300, 400, more, we dont know, so stop your downplay .

Not to argue your general point, but Wii and PS2 sure as hell were supply constrained their first January. Could not find them on store shelves anywhere. 



ICStats on 14 February 2014

Considering the NPD data, there's a distinct lack of Wii U doom threads today.



My 8th gen collection

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Aerys on 14 February 2014

Not as supply constrained as PS4 * i meant



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

JoeTheBro on 14 February 2014
MoHasanie said:
Soundwave said:
PS4 is gonna win this gen, but damn if this industry doesn't look like its headed for trouble.

Wii U and Vita sales are horrific.

3DS and XB1 sales are disappointing.

There's only one platform out of the five new hardware pillars for this gen that's trending well right now.

Everything looks bad. The PS4's sales are good but nothing spectacular. 

I agree that the prospects for this generation's consoles are looking a little dismal, at least in NA. 

The PS4 just had the second best launch January of any console in history. Yeah they suck.



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Fusioncode on 14 February 2014

I really hope the next Call of Duty doesn't release on PS3/360. That would be a huge push for next gen consoles. Though I doubt Activision would take that risk.



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

TheSource on 14 February 2014
Aerys said:
MoHasanie said:
lucidium said:
MoHasanie said:
I think the PS4's sales aren't anything special, Considering the huge sales we keep hearing about, those numbers are kinda average. Everything else did bad so its making the PS4's sales look better than they actually are.

Nice downplay, but it applies to anything, for example, titanfall sales won't be as impressive they only seem so because other games did badly, the forums aren't that big they just seem that way because lots of others are smaller.

 

I'll be sure to look forward to you calling any successful result in future for your favored platform unimpressive and just a result of the competition doing badly.

I'm not downplaying anything. I just don't think 271k sales is good. I suppose for some of January it was out of stock so it would have certainly crossed 300k had it been stock for the whole of January but that's not so great either since in December we heard many people claiming how much higher the PS4 would have been had it been in stock. Some people made statements that the PS4 could have sold twice as much had it had enough stock in NA. Well now its in stock and  its sales aren't that impressive. 

 271k sales with supply issues isnt good enough even if 360(winner of last gen there) sold less on it's first january ? Total downplay. Only 2 consoles sold more than PS4 on their first january, PS2 and Wii, and this is  because they had no supply issues.

Now tell me how a console with no stock could have more impressive sales than it is already? You  dont know how many it would have sold if it was in stock, it could have done 300, 400, more, we dont know, so stop your downplay .

WIi was supply constrained pretty much from Fall 06 to Spring 09, except for maybe a break in mid 2008, then again in Fall 09 to Spring 10 after a price cut. PS2 had on and off again issues from late 2000 to late 2002 (when it was peaking), and then in late 04'-05' when shipments got stuck in the Suez Canal.

One thing that may be happening too is that late would be PS3/360 buyers are getting a PS4/Xbox 1 - that would explain the massive deterioration in PS3 / X360 figures and huge early launch of PS4/X1 to some extent. It isn't normal to go from 5.3m X360s / PS3s in 2013 to 1.5m we're on pace for 2014 right now. Was expecting around 2m minimally, 2.5m with a price cut.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

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vivster on 14 February 2014
ICStats said:
Considering the NPD data, there's a distinct lack of Wii U doom threads today.

The market is saturated with Nintendo doom threads right now so there is not much demand for it. However there seem to be supply issues with X1 doom threads. There could be a lot more but it looks like the PS fans ran out of stock quickly in this thread.



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