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Forums - Sales Discussion - The gen just started, What is your lifetime sales prediction for all home consoles.

007BondAgent on 12 February 2014

PS4 - 122m
Xbone - 47m
Wii U - 18m (Discontinued in 2016)



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ghettoglamour on 12 February 2014
Mummelmann said:
ghettoglamour said:
Most of you guys post lower total numbers than last gen. Do you really think this gen will be the very first that witness a decline in total sales?

Because I don't think so at all.

Just for the record, last gen:

Wii 100m + PS3 90m + 360 85m = 275m

I think this gen could end up like this:

PS4 150m
Xbone 100m
WiiU 40m

Which would make up total sales of 290m, just slightly above last gen.

There are a lot of predictions with 200m or less total sales, which would be very bad and I think it's pretty unrealistic.


Shorter generation, branching market, faster pace of market movements in consumer electronics and more reliance upon revisionist hardware tied to software playing on the same strength.

Personally; I think it's highly unrealistic to expect growth in the 8th generation, seeing as how the vast majority of the market leader's installed base from the 7th gen have jumped into other forms of gaming. That would require the core gamer market to grow by 70-90 million or so in home console alone. Not to mention the fact that we're already seeing this contraction playing out right before or eyes, or have you not noticed that the 3DS/Vita combo is set to sell probably about 100 million combined where the DS/PSP combo sold 240 million?

Yeah I see your points, but most people are predicting under 200m and less which is -33%. That would be insanely bad. I also agree with the portable gaming, the casual and "kid" market are moving towards smartphones and tablets and won't be coming back.

I also kinda agree that the casuals are responsible for most of the Wii sales and Nintendo will be have a huge decline this gen.

On the other hand I see Playstation and Xbox stronger than ever, gaming is even more mainstream and there is no reason to believe they won't grow this gen in comparison to last gen. Just look at the aligned launch to date numbers, they both are crushing their predecessors!

Maybe will see a total decline in sales because of the Wii casuals that are gone forever, but I still think the numbers will be close if not better overall than last gen.



Game of the year 2017 so far:

5. Resident Evil VII
4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
3. Uncharted: The Lost Legacy
2. Horizon Zero Dawn
1. Super Mario Odyssey

Xenostar on 12 February 2014

PS4 100m
XBO 50M
Wii U 25M - Because i think Nintendo will replace this after 4 years on market



JerCotter7 on 12 February 2014
Rogerioandrade said:
PS4 - 70-80 millions
XBoxOne - 40-50 millions
WiiU - 30-35 millions

3DS - 70-80 millions
Vita - 30-35 millions

Tablets - 8989247297487248 millions
Smartphones - 578783578348392384 millions

If the trend continues, and I do believe it will, we will see lower and lower consoles sales every year. Then console would be likely to reach 100 million units sold this generation.

The thrends of having two of the best console launches ever? Yeah not a good time to be going on about sales falling in a dying generation.



RenCutypoison on 12 February 2014

This gen will end up with something like 290 million total homeconsoles sold, so I will start from there with a 20% increase (so ~345 mil total)

PS4 : 160m
XB1 : 120m
WiiU : 65m



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m0ney on 12 February 2014

It's obvious that none of them will surpass 100m



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RenCutypoison on 12 February 2014
m0ney said:

It's obvious that none of them will surpass 100m


Every gen surpassed the previous one in total sales. So even if all consoles finished on a tie this once, they would all most likely surpass 100m.



m0ney on 12 February 2014
RenCutypoison said:

Every gen surpassed the previous one in total sales. So even if all consoles finished on a tie this once, they would all most likely surpass 100m.

This gen will be different cos smartphones and tablets.



My Etsy store

My Ebay store

Deus Ex (2000) - a game that pushes the boundaries of what the video game medium is capable of to a degree unmatched to this very day.

LiquorandGunFun on 12 February 2014

PS4 - 95 million
XBO - 75 million
WiiU - 17 million

If you want to include smart phones, add ipods, mp3 players, car sterios with bluetooth, google glass, samsung watches, etc. To be more consistent.



 

Mummelmann on 12 February 2014
ghettoglamour said:
Mummelmann said:
ghettoglamour said:
Most of you guys post lower total numbers than last gen. Do you really think this gen will be the very first that witness a decline in total sales?

Because I don't think so at all.

Just for the record, last gen:

Wii 100m + PS3 90m + 360 85m = 275m

I think this gen could end up like this:

PS4 150m
Xbone 100m
WiiU 40m

Which would make up total sales of 290m, just slightly above last gen.

There are a lot of predictions with 200m or less total sales, which would be very bad and I think it's pretty unrealistic.


Shorter generation, branching market, faster pace of market movements in consumer electronics and more reliance upon revisionist hardware tied to software playing on the same strength.

Personally; I think it's highly unrealistic to expect growth in the 8th generation, seeing as how the vast majority of the market leader's installed base from the 7th gen have jumped into other forms of gaming. That would require the core gamer market to grow by 70-90 million or so in home console alone. Not to mention the fact that we're already seeing this contraction playing out right before or eyes, or have you not noticed that the 3DS/Vita combo is set to sell probably about 100 million combined where the DS/PSP combo sold 240 million?

Yeah I see your points, but most people are predicting under 200m and less which is -33%. That would be insanely bad. I also agree with the portable gaming, the casual and "kid" market are moving towards smartphones and tablets and won't be coming back.

I also kinda agree that the casuals are responsible for most of the Wii sales and Nintendo will be have a huge decline this gen.

On the other hand I see Playstation and Xbox stronger than ever, gaming is even more mainstream and there is no reason to believe they won't grow this gen in comparison to last gen. Just look at the aligned launch to date numbers, they both are crushing their predecessors!

Maybe will see a total decline in sales because of the Wii casuals that are gone forever, but I still think the numbers will be close if not better overall than last gen.


At this point; the core console market rides rather heavily on Microsoft and what they choose to do with Kinect. They might very well sort it out and become a stronger presence than I expect, but they are the only wildcard I can see from my position; Nintendo and Sony's positions are more or less decided, even if the numbers don't quite match in the end.

Always hard to tell at the start of a generation, even the brighest members here can only hope for an educated guess, with so many variables and such a rapidly evolving market. Will be great fun to dig up in a few years anyway!