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Forums - Sales Discussion - The gen just started, What is your lifetime sales prediction for all home consoles.

PS4 - 105/119m
XBONE - 83/91m
WiiU - 18/24m
Steam Machine - 1/2m
Amazon Console - 4/9m



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ghettoglamour said:
Most of you guys post lower total numbers than last gen. Do you really think this gen will be the very first that witness a decline in total sales?

Because I don't think so at all.

Just for the record, last gen:

Wii 100m + PS3 90m + 360 85m = 275m

I think this gen could end up like this:

PS4 150m
Xbone 100m
WiiU 40m

Which would make up total sales of 290m, just slightly above last gen.

There are a lot of predictions with 200m or less total sales, which would be very bad and I think it's pretty unrealistic.


You could be right? No one knows. All I know is that this gen went for a long time and I don't think we will have another this long.



By end of 2019

Sony PlayStation 4 - 90 million

Microsoft Xbox One - 60 million

Nintendo Wii U - 35 million

Be very happy to see all sell better though as want market to grow instead of shrink dramatically like I anticipate.



Jizz_Beard_thePirate said:

ps4: 105
x1: 80
wiiU: 38.75

I wonder if 5 years from now, I will be eating my own shitz over this


Well i'm relatively close to you in my prediction, so we both will. However who cares. We are not psychic's and don't work for Psychichotline.com. Actually someone should get them in here, Bet they get it wrong too. LOL



ghettoglamour said:
Most of you guys post lower total numbers than last gen. Do you really think this gen will be the very first that witness a decline in total sales?

I would be ecstatic to see just a small 10% decline, as feel be roughly a 30% decline.

The Nintendo Wii was like nothing I have ever witnessed, I saw so many people make it their first console purchase or first one in well over a decade.  It expanded consoles in a massive way, and thus far all those people seem content to either continue playing Wii or have moved to tablets and phones.  That is the big decline to me.  Nintendo will likely see a 60-70% decrease this generation, and Sony and Microsoft have not shown me yet anything that will have a Wii like effect. The market is bigger than ever, but it is also far more saturated than ever.

My predictions were based off a 6-7 year console cycle.



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Playstation 4 - 135 million

Xbox One - 55 million

WiiU - 20 million

Probably going to be way off XD.



Woah, people are really over-predicting in this thread. Even for the Wii U.

This generation will not increase overall cumulative sales compared to last generation. We've already seen this happen right before our eyes. The market leader of last generation is posting pitiful sales of it's home console, one is falling fast in Europe, and the other's Handheld is in horrible condition. The only thing people seem to be getting right is the Handheld's lifetime sales. With that said:

PS4: 80-100 Million (Too early to make a more definite prediction.)
XBO: 50-80 Million (Again, too early. Especially for the XBO.)
Wii U: 22 Million.

Taking the highest numbers into consideration, the overall generation will have 202 Million units sold.



Augen said:
ghettoglamour said:
Most of you guys post lower total numbers than last gen. Do you really think this gen will be the very first that witness a decline in total sales?

I would be ecstatic to see just a small 10% decline, as feel be roughly a 30% decline.

The Nintendo Wii was like nothing I have ever witnessed, I saw so many people make it their first console purchase or first one in well over a decade.  It expanded consoles in a massive way, and thus far all those people seem content to either continue playing Wii or have moved to tablets and phones.  That is the big decline to me.  Nintendo will likely see a 60-70% decrease this generation, and Sony and Microsoft have not shown me yet anything that will have a Wii like effect. The market is bigger than ever, but it is also far more saturated than ever.

My predictions were based off a 6-7 year console cycle.

Well if you look at 360's Launch, it took the first year to hit 6 million or just under.

It also took sony a full year to hit just over 6 million.

Sony's first year 6,017,487

Xbox 360's first year 5,933,110

Xbox one currently is at 3.4

Ps4 is currently at 5.1

 So considering how fast they are moving in 3 months. I don't think we will see a decline. Thats why I posted so high. People are not ready for all online all the time yet, as we seen with Xbox's horrible launch campaign.

Games on phones and tablets is just to pass the time in  a doctors office or on the way to work. other then that, people want the real experience, which is consoles. You can't get that off your phone or tablet. At least I don't think so. I have 55" Led 240 Hz 3d tv though. However many have big screen tv's today.



NintendoPie said:

Woah, people are really over-predicting in this thread. Even for the Wii U.

This generation will not increase overall cumulative sales compared to last generation. We've already seen this happen right before our eyes. The market leader of last generation is posting pitiful sales of it's home console, one is falling fast in Europe, and the other's Handheld is in horrible condition. The only thing people seem to be getting right is the Handheld's lifetime sales. With that said:

PS4: 80-100 Million (Too early to make a more definite prediction.)
XBO: 50-80 Million (Again, too early. Especially for the XBO.)
Wii U: 22 Million.

Taking the highest numbers into consideration, the overall generation will have 202 Million units sold.

How can you say that with this being the most succesful launch of home consoles?

PS3's first year 6,017,487 ( PS3's first 3 months by comparison 1,769,656)  - Ps4 first 3 months 5.1 Million.

Xbox 360's first year 5,933,110 (xbox 360's first 3 months with a lower price 2,027,422) - Xbox Ones first 3 months 3.4 Million

I think a lot of wii's went to kids that are now getting older and want a different experience, meaning they are buying into the new HD twins consoles.

Remember most of the casual market had kids and that is most likely the reason they bought a Wii, Some not but with all that gaming going on. This most likely Increased the younger generations gaming appitite and coddled it's growth.

So I think this gen will grow, as price cheapens, more of those Wii fans are going to buy in and those yesturday kids are going to have kids of there own playing Xbox One, Ps4 or the Wii U.

I predicted 220,000,000 million for this gen. Not a hugh increase but I think it will happen.



DJEVOLVE said:

How can you say that with this being the most succesful launch of home consoles?

PS3's first year 6,017,487 - Ps4 first 3 months 5.1 Million.

Xbox 360's first year 5,933,110 - Xbox Ones first 3 months 3.4 Million

I think a lot of wii's went to kids that are now getting older and want a different experience, meaning they are buying into the new HD twins consoles.

Remember most of the casual market had kids and that is most likely the reason they bought a Wii, Some not but with all that gaming going on. This most likely Increased the younger generations gaming appitite and coddled it's growth.

So I think this gen will grow, as price cheapens, more of those Wii fans are going to buy in and those yesturday kids are going to have kids of there own playing Xbox One, Ps4 or the Wii U.

I predicted 220,000,000 million for this gen. Not a hugh increase but I think it will happen.

Last generation sold ~262 million (100, 80, 80.) So your prediction is less than last generation.

Also, this is my reason; http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178178. Your thread inspired me, thanks! :)