ghettoglamour said:
Yeah I see your points, but most people are predicting under 200m and less which is -33%. That would be insanely bad. I also agree with the portable gaming, the casual and "kid" market are moving towards smartphones and tablets and won't be coming back. I also kinda agree that the casuals are responsible for most of the Wii sales and Nintendo will be have a huge decline this gen. On the other hand I see Playstation and Xbox stronger than ever, gaming is even more mainstream and there is no reason to believe they won't grow this gen in comparison to last gen. Just look at the aligned launch to date numbers, they both are crushing their predecessors! Maybe will see a total decline in sales because of the Wii casuals that are gone forever, but I still think the numbers will be close if not better overall than last gen. |
At this point; the core console market rides rather heavily on Microsoft and what they choose to do with Kinect. They might very well sort it out and become a stronger presence than I expect, but they are the only wildcard I can see from my position; Nintendo and Sony's positions are more or less decided, even if the numbers don't quite match in the end.
Always hard to tell at the start of a generation, even the brighest members here can only hope for an educated guess, with so many variables and such a rapidly evolving market. Will be great fun to dig up in a few years anyway!