The gen just started, What is your lifetime sales prediction for all home consoles.

[ghettoglamour]

Mummelmann said:

ghettoglamour said:
Most of you guys post lower total numbers than last gen. Do you really think this gen will be the very first that witness a decline in total sales?

Because I don't think so at all.

Just for the record, last gen:

Wii 100m + PS3 90m + 360 85m = 275m

I think this gen could end up like this:

PS4 150m
Xbone 100m
WiiU 40m

Which would make up total sales of 290m, just slightly above last gen.

There are a lot of predictions with 200m or less total sales, which would be very bad and I think it's pretty unrealistic.

Shorter generation, branching market, faster pace of market movements in consumer electronics and more reliance upon revisionist hardware tied to software playing on the same strength.

Personally; I think it's highly unrealistic to expect growth in the 8th generation, seeing as how the vast majority of the market leader's installed base from the 7th gen have jumped into other forms of gaming. That would require the core gamer market to grow by 70-90 million or so in home console alone. Not to mention the fact that we're already seeing this contraction playing out right before or eyes, or have you not noticed that the 3DS/Vita combo is set to sell probably about 100 million combined where the DS/PSP combo sold 240 million?

Yeah I see your points, but most people are predicting under 200m and less which is -33%. That would be insanely bad. I also agree with the portable gaming, the casual and "kid" market are moving towards smartphones and tablets and won't be coming back.

I also kinda agree that the casuals are responsible for most of the Wii sales and Nintendo will be have a huge decline this gen.

On the other hand I see Playstation and Xbox stronger than ever, gaming is even more mainstream and there is no reason to believe they won't grow this gen in comparison to last gen. Just look at the aligned launch to date numbers, they both are crushing their predecessors!

Maybe will see a total decline in sales because of the Wii casuals that are gone forever, but I still think the numbers will be close if not better overall than last gen.