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Forums - Website Topics - When we will get vg$ from the prediction league?

68soul on 18 February 2008
Entroper said:
I have to say that I liked the fixed prediction method much better than the "based on average" prediction method.

Same here... please ioi, could you just keep things simple, and don't base the earnings on the average prediction?

If someone has less than 50%, he looses... more than 50%, he wins... the higher the best... no matter what the others predicted, that's the way it should be...

Imho, of course, you're the boss...  :) 



 

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rendo on 18 February 2008

If you're going that route, don't use 50%, use 60% as the base rate. 50% is far too lax.



TWRoO on 18 February 2008

Will the American predictions be calculated tomorrow?... hopefully I will profit on those.



rendo on 18 February 2008

You realize it's users that make the site right...?



Mnementh on 18 February 2008
68soul said:
TWRoO said:
Oh I see... so do we only get a profit if our predictions are higher than the average of all peoples predictions?

Yes, i think that's the trick...

The bad thing is, if by an incredible chance (or misfortune), the average prediction is 100% (nearly the case here with the PS3 and a global 96% accuracy), you'll loose your money anyway, even if your prediction was higher than 90%...

Is it me, or is it a little bit unfair? Loose a bet when you're 90% or 95% correct? And in another case, win with a 30% accuracy, if the global one is 0%? It's a really, really strange system... not really rewarding, imho...


If you have 90% accuracy and the average accuracy is 95%, than you underperformed. If you have 50% accuracy and the average is 30%, you're a great predictor.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

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Mnementh on 18 February 2008
68soul said:
DMeisterJ said:
Umm... WTF? I was spot on on my Devil May Cry (on both platforms)

I thought as long as that you were within fifty percent, you were okay?

Can someone explained how you make money? I'm rather confused by the faq page.

I was thinking just the same a few hours ago: more than 50%, it's ok... but it's not how it works, it all depends on the global accuracy...

For example, the PS3 had a 96% global accuracy... some people could be way too high, some people could be way too low, and some people very close... in the end, nearly everyone will loose some money on that bet, not only the ones way too high or way too low, but also the ones who had by example 80 or 90 %... something's wrong here... 


No, with the systems comes on average as much VG$ out as was put on bets.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

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Entroper on 18 February 2008
Mnementh said:

If you have 90% accuracy and the average accuracy is 95%, than you underperformed. If you have 50% accuracy and the average is 30%, you're a great predictor.


OK, but if the average accuracy is 95%, then the maximum interest you can earn is 5% even if you're 100% accurate, and you could stand to lose much more.  Doesn't sound fair to me.



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Mnementh on 18 February 2008
68soul said:
Entroper said:
I have to say that I liked the fixed prediction method much better than the "based on average" prediction method.

Same here... please ioi, could you just keep things simple, and don't base the earnings on the average prediction?

If someone has less than 50%, he looses... more than 50%, he wins... the higher the best... no matter what the others predicted, that's the way it should be...

Imho, of course, you're the boss...  :) 


The problem with fixed accuracy is, that the clever guys will bet high on their prediction of older titles and only 5 vg$ on a new release: Because it's easy to relatively good predict some constant title and hard to predict a newcomer. You can see it with Monster Hunter, the average accuracy is very high, same with consoles.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

rendo on 18 February 2008

If you don't understand what I'm getting it, it's over your head. :(



Mnementh on 18 February 2008
Entroper said:
Mnementh said:

If you have 90% accuracy and the average accuracy is 95%, than you underperformed. If you have 50% accuracy and the average is 30%, you're a great predictor.


OK, but if the average accuracy is 95%, then the maximum interest you can earn is 5% even if you're 100% accurate, and you could stand to lose much more.  Doesn't sound fair to me.


Hmm, possibly ioi should add a factor to increase the winnings a little bit. Multiply it with 1.1 for example. But that should be well thought...



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]