Your poll is awful.Every option has some form of bias to it.

I predicted 10M but it was before Halo 5 in 2015...

Halo 2>Halo 5

I think he is a little short. I'd figure about 8m by the end of Sept. The holidays should then push another 4m.

10million seems pretty optimistic, not sure it's feasible, but a solid year can make it happen. MS does have good stuff coming down the pipeline so who knows.

Well, after realizing that he meant LTD at the end of 2014, or ~6M sold in 2014, then this should be 100% doable. It's actually what I predicted, too. Then again, we have to look at how low Jan NPD is (rumor is that it is quite low for the One) to see if even that is plausible.

I think Pachter forgot "less than" somewhere in that sentence.

*edit*

Oh nevermind.  10 million lifetime by the end of 2014.  I still think less than belongs in that sentence, but 10 million is possible.

Seems plausible. Then you add ~2.5m for holiday 2013 and you have 12-13m total.
Maybe MS could aim for 15m but that seems roughly ballpark.
Sony aiming for 20m seems reasonable. Roughly 3:2 ratio.
If Sony can increase manufacturing capacity they could do better, considering launching in Japan+ROW.
(especially if they can reduce production costs and do a price drop next holiday, even by $50)

Seems very possible.

Considering the Xbox One won't have Japan's help in getting big sales, and it's a good chance to be lower than Wii U first year numbers for a while, I think maybe 6-7 million LTD by December might be what the Xbox One is looking at right now. I just don't see the numbers getting there without Japan's help.