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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 will sell 200 million console sales this generation?

MoHasanie on 25 January 2014

No. Maybe if it cost $199 or $149.



    

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forethought14 on 25 January 2014

Very unlikely, unless PS4 happens to sell to every PS3/360 owner, which is nearly out of the question. Sales right now are NOT indicative of the future sales it'll have, some people need to calm down with predictions.



NintendoPie on 25 January 2014

Is this the Playstation version of the UNITY thread?



binary solo on 25 January 2014
007BondAgent said:
Can it? No
Will it ? lmao

There were Wii 200 million predictions in 2008/9, how did that go I wonder?

Still, 200 million is more "realistic" than the MS dude (was it Larry?) who said 1 billion across the 3 consoles. That would mean 480 million each for PS4 and Xb one since Wii U ain't gonna get past 40 million.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

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AshKetchum1992 on 25 January 2014

At least he didn't say 1 billion...



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ICStats on 25 January 2014
Shadow1980 said:
ICStats said:

I think we really have to take account of indirect factors like that which pumped up sales before.

PS1 & PS2 -> huge levels of piracy.  A lot of PS2's were purchased and modded immediately.
PS1 & PS2 -> drive failure issues, driving people to replace them.
Xbox 360 -> whole system failures, drive failures, noisy DVD drives, driving people to replace and update to newer model.

If the PS4 is very stable and hack proof then it will actually sell less units, but would be bigger success for Sony.


Any data on piracy rates? I'd be surprised if it was more than a few million units. Also, I can't seem to find anything suggesting the PS2 had a significantly higher failure rate than any other disc-based system. Even if they did have an abnormally high failure rate, would most people pay to have them fixed (assuming it was no longer under warranty) or would they just buy a whole new system? The 360 did have an abnormally high failure rate (at least for the original model produced from 2005 to 2010 when the 360 S came out), but even then it was probably more cost-effective to have the system sent off to MS to be repaired instead of buying a whole new system. My 360 crapped out on me twice over the past six years, and the first time I sent it off it was still under warranty, while the second time I had to pay $100. However much failure rates inflate sales figures, it probably isn't all that much.

I don't know where to find some statistics.  Not sure how it was in the US, but I remember in the UK almost everyone I knew had modded their PS2, and a few had a PS2 and never paid for a single original game.  It was so common and accepted in UK that you could get your PS2 modded while you wait in an open public setting.  I think in other European countries, Russia, etc. it would be even more.

Piracty was also easy on the PSP and DS - something that can't be discounted as a factor to high sales either.  You could put hundreds of DS roms on an SD card device.

As for failures, I know the PS1 had a very common disc drive problem caused by wear, which I also experienced which is why I bought a replacement PS1.  Same for the original PS2.  For PS3 I still have a Fat and a Slim.  The Fat did break once and was replaced under warranty.  For 360 I first had one with faulty RAM which would cause graphical glitches, then I had one which got RROD, then I had two fail due to drive problems (hard time reading the discs).  For Nintendo I never had a system break.

I found this about the last generation.  The 360 had a higher than normal failure rate.

http://www.squaretrade.com/htm/pdf/SquareTrade_Xbox360_PS3_Wii_Reliability_0809.pdf



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Kasz216 on 25 January 2014

Well, that answers the question of "Who will be the PS4's version of John Lucas".

A pure gaming console isn't going to break 200 million.



POE on 25 January 2014



TheShape31 on 25 January 2014
Shadow1980 said:
ICStats said:

I think we really have to take account of indirect factors like that which pumped up sales before.

PS1 & PS2 -> huge levels of piracy.  A lot of PS2's were purchased and modded immediately.
PS1 & PS2 -> drive failure issues, driving people to replace them.
Xbox 360 -> whole system failures, drive failures, noisy DVD drives, driving people to replace and update to newer model.

If the PS4 is very stable and hack proof then it will actually sell less units, but would be bigger success for Sony.


Any data on piracy rates? I'd be surprised if it was more than a few million units. Also, I can't seem to find anything suggesting the PS2 had a significantly higher failure rate than any other disc-based system. Even if they did have an abnormally high failure rate, would most people pay to have them fixed (assuming it was no longer under warranty) or would they just buy a whole new system? The 360 did have an abnormally high failure rate (at least for the original model produced from 2005 to 2010 when the 360 S came out), but even then it was probably more cost-effective to have the system sent off to MS to be repaired instead of buying a whole new system. My 360 crapped out on me twice over the past six years, and the first time I sent it off it was still under warranty, while the second time I had to pay $100. However much failure rates inflate sales figures, it probably isn't all that much.

The most probable reason why the PS1 and PS2 sold what they did is the fact that Europe opened up to consoles in a big way for the first time. Home computers dominated there in the 80s and first half of the 90s, with Nintendo and Sega's systems only having seven-digit sales figures. Now here comes the PS1. It sells only somewhat better than the NES in America and Japan, but in Europe it not only becomes the first system to sell over 10 million units, it sells some 37 million units, more than the NES, SNES, SMS, and Mega Drive combined. This pushes the PS1 to become the first system to ever pass 100 million in global sales, knocking the NES off its perch as the best-selling system ever. As for the 360, it just vacuumed up a bunch of Sony's market share, likely due to having a year-long head start, a lower price, better online in the earlier years of the generation (though PS+ is just as good as XBL Gold now), and more major exclusives early on as well. Of course, both systems were competing with the Wii for market share as well. Here's how console sales have progressed in the three major regions.

Note that there is no data on lifetime sales of the SMS in Japan or for the TG-16 in either Japan or Europe.

Seeing the downward trend in Japan, is it possible for the PS4 to not only change that but make this generation the biggest yet?  I have my doubts, but man it would be a beautiful thing to see.  My guess is that the 8th gen will turn out looking like the 6th gen in Japan.  And if things turn out even better, it'll be fun to watch the gaming industry in that country really turn around.  



NavyNut on 25 January 2014

It won't sell 200mil but might reach 100mil if it continues doing well.