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TheShape31 on 25 January 2014
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Shadow1980 said:
ICStats said:

I think we really have to take account of indirect factors like that which pumped up sales before.

PS1 & PS2 -> huge levels of piracy.  A lot of PS2's were purchased and modded immediately.
PS1 & PS2 -> drive failure issues, driving people to replace them.
Xbox 360 -> whole system failures, drive failures, noisy DVD drives, driving people to replace and update to newer model.

If the PS4 is very stable and hack proof then it will actually sell less units, but would be bigger success for Sony.


Any data on piracy rates? I'd be surprised if it was more than a few million units. Also, I can't seem to find anything suggesting the PS2 had a significantly higher failure rate than any other disc-based system. Even if they did have an abnormally high failure rate, would most people pay to have them fixed (assuming it was no longer under warranty) or would they just buy a whole new system? The 360 did have an abnormally high failure rate (at least for the original model produced from 2005 to 2010 when the 360 S came out), but even then it was probably more cost-effective to have the system sent off to MS to be repaired instead of buying a whole new system. My 360 crapped out on me twice over the past six years, and the first time I sent it off it was still under warranty, while the second time I had to pay $100. However much failure rates inflate sales figures, it probably isn't all that much.

The most probable reason why the PS1 and PS2 sold what they did is the fact that Europe opened up to consoles in a big way for the first time. Home computers dominated there in the 80s and first half of the 90s, with Nintendo and Sega's systems only having seven-digit sales figures. Now here comes the PS1. It sells only somewhat better than the NES in America and Japan, but in Europe it not only becomes the first system to sell over 10 million units, it sells some 37 million units, more than the NES, SNES, SMS, and Mega Drive combined. This pushes the PS1 to become the first system to ever pass 100 million in global sales, knocking the NES off its perch as the best-selling system ever. As for the 360, it just vacuumed up a bunch of Sony's market share, likely due to having a year-long head start, a lower price, better online in the earlier years of the generation (though PS+ is just as good as XBL Gold now), and more major exclusives early on as well. Of course, both systems were competing with the Wii for market share as well. Here's how console sales have progressed in the three major regions.

Note that there is no data on lifetime sales of the SMS in Japan or for the TG-16 in either Japan or Europe.

Seeing the downward trend in Japan, is it possible for the PS4 to not only change that but make this generation the biggest yet?  I have my doubts, but man it would be a beautiful thing to see.  My guess is that the 8th gen will turn out looking like the 6th gen in Japan.  And if things turn out even better, it'll be fun to watch the gaming industry in that country really turn around.