Shadow1980 said:
ICStats said:
I think we really have to take account of indirect factors like that which pumped up sales before.
PS1 & PS2 -> huge levels of piracy. A lot of PS2's were purchased and modded immediately.
PS1 & PS2 -> drive failure issues, driving people to replace them.
Xbox 360 -> whole system failures, drive failures, noisy DVD drives, driving people to replace and update to newer model.
If the PS4 is very stable and hack proof then it will actually sell less units, but would be bigger success for Sony.
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Any data on piracy rates? I'd be surprised if it was more than a few million units. Also, I can't seem to find anything suggesting the PS2 had a significantly higher failure rate than any other disc-based system. Even if they did have an abnormally high failure rate, would most people pay to have them fixed (assuming it was no longer under warranty) or would they just buy a whole new system? The 360 did have an abnormally high failure rate (at least for the original model produced from 2005 to 2010 when the 360 S came out), but even then it was probably more cost-effective to have the system sent off to MS to be repaired instead of buying a whole new system. My 360 crapped out on me twice over the past six years, and the first time I sent it off it was still under warranty, while the second time I had to pay $100. However much failure rates inflate sales figures, it probably isn't all that much.
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I don't know where to find some statistics. Not sure how it was in the US, but I remember in the UK almost everyone I knew had modded their PS2, and a few had a PS2 and never paid for a single original game. It was so common and accepted in UK that you could get your PS2 modded while you wait in an open public setting. I think in other European countries, Russia, etc. it would be even more.
Piracty was also easy on the PSP and DS - something that can't be discounted as a factor to high sales either. You could put hundreds of DS roms on an SD card device.
As for failures, I know the PS1 had a very common disc drive problem caused by wear, which I also experienced which is why I bought a replacement PS1. Same for the original PS2. For PS3 I still have a Fat and a Slim. The Fat did break once and was replaced under warranty. For 360 I first had one with faulty RAM which would cause graphical glitches, then I had one which got RROD, then I had two fail due to drive problems (hard time reading the discs). For Nintendo I never had a system break.
I found this about the last generation. The 360 had a higher than normal failure rate.
http://www.squaretrade.com/htm/pdf/SquareTrade_Xbox360_PS3_Wii_Reliability_0809.pdf
