Oh god, if someone else touts China/India as the reason why the Wii will sell sixty million by the end of the year, or have Lifetime sales of 200 mil, I am going to scream.

Not to hate on China/India, but isn't the average wage over there really low? I mean, that's why when you call customer support, you're speaking to someone in India, because they'll do the same amount of work, for literally pennies on the dollar. I was watching a documentary on it, for the price that they can hire one tech support american, twelve to sixteen Indians could be hired.

So if you're making 30k/year, they'll hire twelve Indians, and they'll get paid 2500 bucks per year? Now do you think that they'll take 1/10 of their overall earnings and buy a Wii? If it's the same price as it is in america, the price may just be higher. No. People in India are worried about their lives, moreso than Wii Fit. China is basically the same thing, minus the whole life being threatene thing, there isn't a whole lot of money to go around over there.

Back to the 4.1 thing. I didn't know that Nintendo said that they were keeping it at 1.8 until the end of the FY. And you think that magically in April it'll go up to 4.1? Yeah right. More realistic is 2.5 and at most 3.0, but adding that much to production isn't something you can do at the drop of a hat. It takes time, money, and more production factories. I think that 4.1 may be there by the beginning of FY 2010, but to expect it any sooner than the beginning of FY 09 is proposterous (did I spell that righht), for the above reasons.

But you, John Lucas, are not a person who listens to reason, or uses it in his predictions, you defy all of that. That is why you're so popular today. But I'd be the first to sign up that Wii won't hit sixty mil by the end of this year.

The average person in India is damn poor, yes, but in countries of over 1 BILLION each there are going to be a lot of relatively wealthy people who have comparable spending power to the average American.

[edit: almost -- it's "preposterous".]

Funny you mentioned that word "doubling".

While typing the terms "Nintendo 2007 fiscal year" into Google to crosscheck and verify what Kirby007 fixed in the original post's wording "After Nintendo's 2008 fiscal year ends March 31, 2008" with "After Nintendo's 2007 fiscal year ends March 31, 2008 fixed", (deep breath) I found this:

Nintendo's 2007 profits almost double fiscal 2006

http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/24/nintendos-2007-profits-almost-double-fiscal-2006/

Doubling is not a foreign thing for Nintendo, I'll tell you for sure.

John Lucas

P.S.: By the way, Engadget was wrong on the years in the titles. Nintendo's 2008 fiscal year ends on March 31, 2008. They shoulda said "Nintendo profits in 2007 almost double theirs in 2006". The word "fiscal" makes the title incorrect. Companies define their business years a little differently than the Gregorian calendar.

Well, that would be crazy, but I don't think it's happening. I see production increasing to at least 2.5 million per month, maybe up to 3.5 million at most, but 4.1 million seems too much! I'd love if it was the case though (provided it did sell that much).

By the way, I call everyone's attention to the bet I'm proposing in my sig. If you don't believe in Wii's demand in 2008, you can put your "money" where your mouth is.

Random note:  When demand equals supply and each sold unit provides profit, production equals profit.

While I can't support JLs mystical and rather unscientific 4.1 number, I do agree that Nintendo will massively increase production.

They have lost untold millions already by not being able to meet demand. Every Wii sold is potential games sold too. And they could have sold vastly more Wiis if they were on the market.

Now, let's assume the pundits are right. Wii is a fad. Well, what's a fad? Something that sells massively for 1 - 5 years and then demand vapourizes. So even taking the critics stance, Nintendo needs to sell massively more units NOW while the fad is on.

If it's not a fad, then demand is just enormous and they need to not only meet it, but start exceeding it so they can more into new markets.

At 1.8m now, they are still not even close to meeting demand, in the slow selling season. So they need to increase (a lot) to meet basic demand, increase to meet demand generated by games like SSBB, WiiFit, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Pikmin and Kirby... Ok, maybe not Kirby, but I love him anyway. Plus any other surprises Nintendo has up their sleeves.

On top of that, they need to increase supply so they can stockpile and then launch in China/India/Korea, etc. Piracy is less an issue for Nintendo since they sell the consoles themselves at a profit.

On top of that, they need to stockpile for the holidays!

So really, with all that considered, is doubling their production to risky for conservative Nintendo? Or just plain common sense?

yeah but the more they sell the more money they make