Nintendo is a conservative company, I doubt they will do this.

But I hope they do, because that would just be fucking awesome.

no way nintendo likes the high demand

Yesterday was Wii day at my friends Toys R Us, and more people lined up outside than Wii's they got in (40).

Also, I suppose this matches your sell 60 million prediction in 2008. Good luck you crazy bastard! I still continue to doubt you, but your min 20 million in 2007 was mocked heavily, and they got to 18.

John Lucas is my hero. If he were running for President of the US... I'd vote for him. :D

Lol, Crazy JLucas is back ^^!!! Keep 'em comming!

4.1 ... per month ... it's damn high !!!
You made it again, Johnny boy .

Some people have covered some of the thoughts behind this prediction.

They are entering new markets this year. Untested markets, true. But new markets. Big markets like China and South Korea for growth potential.

But it also goes along with what's happening in North America. Demand is exceedingly high but patient because people have gotten used to the fact that Wiis are simply not easily available. Some have atticked their demand for the time being waiting for the system to be more easily available. When they see these things more often in the stores (which will still sell out quickly but replenish stock at more frequent intervals) they blow the dust off of the demand they placed in their mental attic and get all excited all over again continuing the viral effect of Wii onto the buying public. You know, someone plays and a friend or family member sees it and then they want to play their own. I just "converted" an old work partner of mine this past week. A guy in his 50's who had no interest in playing videogames whatsoever. Now he wants one after his experience with boxing, bowling (he loved bowling in real life), and baseball from Wii Sports. Saw the thing as good for getting body in shape due to the workout.

Three visible games this year will turn this currently existing demand into an absolute raving madness and they are the soon to be released Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Wii Fit, and Mario Kart Wii.

Brawl converts people from the other console camps over to the Wii side if only for this game. Wii Fit is the Oprah effect of the revolution that sets Wii on a whole new stage. And Mario Kart Wii is another bridge to the Wii empire. Also smaller games some not on the horizon quite yet will factor into this like Mario Party 9. You know it's coming sooner or later.

They are going to need the base to strengthen the viral effect as well as stimulate the bases where they need to increase their presence like certain parts of Europe. Wii is on top in Japan after being under DS for so long. Their efforts have awakened the Japanese public and they have certain games for that region to stimulate anticipation so they too will need a stronger base of owners to further "infect" others with the "Wii virus". Make it as contagious as the common cold.

Joining potentially lucrative new markets as well as strengthening their hold in the older ones with the knowledge that they under-did production in the previous year is the reason why Nintendo will make such a leap.

Remember I said within the year. It happens at the start of the fiscal year or somewhere after their quarterly revisions in the summer and fall. But I don't think it'll take that long honestly. And I won't be surprised if they DO indeed start off with that number starting this spring.

Nintendo has to up production strongly to take advantage of all this goodwill. The numbers we will be seeing from DS & Wii this year will make us faint I guarantee you.

2007 was child's play. 2008 is as real as Obama as the U.S. President. Yes We Can! ¡Si Se Puede!

Get ready for it, peoples.

John Lucas

P.S.: There were two numbers that kept flashing in my head in January. 3.6 and 4.1. 4.1 had the brighter glow and flashed the most so I went with it.

So you're basically saying that you think that for the next fiscal year Nintendo will sell at least 49.2 million Wii's.

A more realistic scenario would be an increase to maybe 2.5 million a month in April and then 3.6 million a month in August or so, putting them closer to 38-39 million for the fiscal year, but hey, we don't keep you around for realistic projections. ;)

I'm with SkyRender. 4.1 million is a decent guess for monthly production by April 2009, but not for AVERAGE monthly production for 4/08-4/09.

I mean, seriously. Back in December the 60m prediction was just plausible enough that I thought it might happen, but when I found out that Nintendo was holding production at 1.8 until March, the dream was over.

Unless you have some "proof" John, I don't buy it ;) Its too big a jump - and too hard to actually do this in terms of production.

Maybe closer to 2.5m, or even 3.0m. 4m? Love to see it - but I don't think we will, its just too hard to do.