Concur with oliist.

Maybe 2.7 million by the end of the year.

Nintendo might be happy to keep demand up while increasing sales for their owners (read:Shareholders) by opening new markets to keep it dilute.

do you people seriously expect Wii to be shipping 4 million a month WW for this year?

i think it should be anywhere from 2 to 2.5 million per month...

His 60 million prediction will be 20 - 25 million OFF, i believe.

am fail

Nintendo is a cautious company and will (likely) make a production jump from 1.8 Million per month to between 2.1 and 2.4 Million per month after March 31st 2008; from there it will likely jump to between 2.4 to 2.8 Million units per month after September 31st 2008.

One more thought.

If this were a game of "The Price is Right " I'd bank on production to go up by 1 unit. Yup that's right, a single unit.

When you go over you'll understand why I made such a bid. 

Count me among the conservatives here. They may hit 4 million by the end of 2008, but I suspect they'll have gradual increases first to make sure the market will hold. At 4mil a month, the Wii drought would almost surely end world wide, and would risk becoming a glut.

Yep, you're right. Production is currently at 1.8M per month.

http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3164437

BTW, you should add this prediction to you signature John Lucas.

You realise by the current production levels of 1.8 million his 60 million projection would be less than 20 million off, and yet you think it will have a production increase too?

at 2 million per month it's 24 million per year... minus the 0.6 million from the first three months (which are still 1.8mil each) and  that would mean 20.13 million + 23.4 million = 43.53 million by the end of 2008.

If we use your increase to 2.5 million then there would be 20.13 + 27.9 million = 48 million, or only 12 million off, so you have two conflicting predictions there.

4.1 million huh, sounds about right.

We'll probably see Wii production raised to somewhere between 3 and 4 million during this year, but going straight to 4.1 million in April would be surprisingly bold of Nintendo.

I honestly think this is one of those times when you say something outrageous, but nobody believes you, and while reality just barely falls short of your predictions, you're still closer than any of your critics. You understand long term trends like no one else on the planet, but get way too excited with numbers. =P