I think you are correct...it's going to be close though either way.

It will definitely be close. Demand for each console will drop this month for sure. The main reason I believe this is that there is no real standout software for either console to maintain momentum.

Take the Wii. It was sold out for months and months because it had that killer app at launch that created huge demand. For the XOne and the PS4 (with the PS4 having higher demand at launch) there isn't anything post holiday that I think will help keep the demand high.

However, Sony has yet to launch in Japan, so there will be demand there. Microsoft must be banking on Titanfall to lift demand come spring.

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Well lets see...

-PS4 is $100 cheaper and the hardware is being sold at a loss by Sony
-Sony is giving away free PS4 games to anyone that plays online
-Sony is charging less for their online
-PS4 is more powerful than Xbox One
-Xbox One has had some of the worst PR of any console in recent memory
-Retailers are still having to put up signs to clear up misinformation about Xbox One
-Sony has been an Internet darling while Xbox One has seen constant bashing

So yeah it would be pretty pathetic if the PS4 didn't sell more in January.

I always laugh when people talk about a resurgent Sony and then give the PS4 as a shining example. Well it's easy to be resurgent when your competitors shoot themselves in their foot and you're willing to take a loss on hardware.  It's not like Apple or Samsung are going to shoot themselves in the foot so it's highly unlikely that Sony's (TVs/Tablets/Smartphones) will see the same kind of success against their competitors .

Okay, so the PS4 reached its peak as well.

I dont think so, imo the gap in favor of the One on the USa will remain the same until the PS4 launches on japan, then the One will have an even bigger gap on the USA and eventualy demand for both consoles will shrink and we will finaly start seeing the PS4 outselling the One on American territory.

ps4 don't last a day on shelves in my area, I have a buddy that's been trying to get a hold of one for weeks. I am thinking of selling him mine, considering I still have x1/wiiu, I can wait a bit for another ps4.

Demand is strong for ps4, if sony can meet that demand then yes, ps4 will have a much better january.

Of course you can keep guessing until it finally comes true, but I do think January so far will be your best bet. As we all know, Sony needs to ship more units to North America. We know the demand is there, and Sony's last major territory to launch is Japan. So they obviously are going to be supply constraint until after the Japan launch. We'll just have to wait and see.

Thankfully in the real world, global sales are what's really important and the PS4 has been that shining example in doing what right after Sony shot themselves in the foot with the PS3.

I would say it is almost a given. Demand will be lower for both consoles but there are still many who couldn't get a PS4 in December so that they will buy it in January. Even if the amount of people who always planned to buy the console in January will be the same for both console (which I also doubt), PS4 will sell more because of the guys who missed the opportunity in December or even November.