It will definitely be close. Demand for each console will drop this month for sure. The main reason I believe this is that there is no real standout software for either console to maintain momentum.
Take the Wii. It was sold out for months and months because it had that killer app at launch that created huge demand. For the XOne and the PS4 (with the PS4 having higher demand at launch) there isn't anything post holiday that I think will help keep the demand high.
However, Sony has yet to launch in Japan, so there will be demand there. Microsoft must be banking on Titanfall to lift demand come spring.
I'm Desmond Shepherd and I approve this message.
Author of science fiction and other genres, I write under the pen name Desmond Shepherd. The second season of my series The Permanent Man premieres on November 11, 2014. Pre-order the season premiere The Walls Have Ears on Amazon today!