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Forums - Gaming - Why we really have no clue which console will win this gen.

Max King of the Wild on 13 January 2014

there is just no evidence to support the asinine notion thatWii U sales will catapult to the top due to a couple of games and ps4 will die downeven with a price cut and games incomming. On the contrary, there is evidence to support Ps4, X1, then Wii U (from first to last).



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Frogger on 13 January 2014

This will be the most honest gaming generation since the SNES VS the Saturn. No DVDs, CDs, Blurays, or Wii Remotes to superficially sell more consoles. Each console will only be able to use games to sell their systems. Thank god.



Leadified on 13 January 2014
superhippy420 said:

Mario is not a bigger seller then Pokemon anymore.  When Nintendo was making a new Mario game once every 3 - 4 years it was but now that they have released a new one between the 2D/3D style pretty much every year for 7 years now its value has been decreased by alot.   Pokemon X/Y has been out for 3 months and is already the top selling game on 3DS, and thats only a year after they brought out Black/White 2.   The only 2 franchises that sell more then Pokemon now are COD and GTA.   Yes they could hurt their handheld sales, but at the benefit of moving atleast 8 - 10 million Wii U's and along with all other software that those owners will buy.   X, Bayonetta, and Hyrule Warriors all exist because Nintendo is making sure to lock up the Japanese market, which it no doubt will considering that PS4/Xbone have nothing that will interest the Japanese.    PS4 could no doubt lead this gen but to call it a lock is ridiculous.  The PS3 would have only sold maybe 40 million consoles if it wasnt for COD/FIFA, good luck being carried by those 2 for 2 generations in a row.

So the Wii U will lock down on a market without all the big third party games to go with it (FF + Kingdom Hearts + Metal Gear Solid, etc.), okay, I'm interesed to see on how that will turn out. So why did the PS1 sell 100 M+ and the PS2 150 M+?



SubiyaCryolite on 13 January 2014
spemanig said:
This will be the most honest gaming generation since the SNES VS the Saturn. No DVDs, CDs, Blurays, or Wii Remotes to superficially sell more consoles. Each console will only be able to use games to sell their systems. Thank god.

Damn right "its all about the games".



I predict that the Wii U will sell a total of 18 million units in its lifetime. 

The NX will be a 900p machine

Max King of the Wild on 13 January 2014
Leadified said:

So the Wii U will lock down on a market without all the big third party games to go with it (FF + Kingdom Hearts + Metal Gear Solid, etc.), okay, I'm interesed to see on how that will turn out. So why did the PS1 sell 100 M+ and the PS2 150 M+?


and ps4 4.2mil in a month and a half



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binary solo on 13 January 2014
superhippy420 said:
mii-gamer said:
You can't deny the ps4 is the red hot favorite at the moment

What I don't deny is that Call of Duty and FIfa were the biggest console sellers for the US and Europe in the last 5 years and that the console launched with those, as well as being cheaper then Xbox One, along with Microsoft falling flat on their face during the reveal and E3, the combination of which has given it its amazing start.     Sony's job now is to keep up the momentum because quite frankly COD and FIFA will not be able to carry them for the next 7 - 8 years.  Nintendo and Microsoft are not going to go down that easy, and to be honest even if PS4 builds a 2 - 3 million console lead, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, and Halo are all big enough to erase that deficit in almost no time flat.

Are they?

Halo on Xb didn't sell that much less than Halo on Xb360, with a much smaller install base. Halo on Xb360 didn't grow the Xbox brand, PS3 grew the Xbox brand. For this gen it's a franchise in a slow decline and it will only sell really well in the USA. For 360 Halo 4 will probably surpass Halo: Reach in sales, but it will fall well short of Halo 3. The pulling power of Halo is not what people think it is. Halo has a dedicated fan base and it has guaranteed millions of sales for several more games. But it's not a franchise that can secure a generation win for brand Xbox. The combined might of 5 Halo games on 360 plus Halo: CE re-release couldn't stop PS3 from catching up to and overtaking 360. So why you think Halo is a magic bullet for Xb one I don't understand.

Mario Kart, and Smash Bros didn't help GC or N64 to outsell their respective PS competiion, and in the case of GC they didn't even stop the new boy Xbox from taking 2nd place. They will sell very well, as most Mario games do because a large proportion of Nintendo owners love their Mario. 1/3 of GC owners bought SS Melee, indeed Melee on GC outsold SSB on N64. Microsoft and Sony could only wish for that proportion of their console owners to buy a few of their franchises. If the current Mario offerings on Wii U aren't putting Wii U on top of Xb one and PS4 then why do you think these ones will?This is what Wii owners who've never owned a console before are thinking: "I have Mario Kart Wii, it was fun, but I don't really play it any more, why would I buy a Wii U for the same game? I have SSBB, it was fun but I don't play it much any more, why would I buy a Wii U just to play the same game again?" What these people don't understand is that they aren't the same games, because they are not gamers at their core. And this is Nintendo's error. They use the same name with slight differences because that's what works with their true fans, but that approach doesn't work with the people who never owned a console before Wii.

If PS4 gets a 2-3 million console lead then only something new and amazing on one of the other consoles will make a difference.  Going to well tapped franchises once more isn't what will overcome a multi-millon PS4 lead.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Fusioncode on 13 January 2014
superhippy420 said:
supernihilist said:
Mario kart and smash will. I find hilarious the people underestimete both games ability to move HW.
A MK8 or Smash bundle with the game pre-installed at 200$ will sell GANGBUSTERS on black friday/holidays/golden week etc.
2014 and 2015 will be the peak years, i expect WiiU to sell 12m+ between the two...which is not much compared to Wii or PS4 but still it may let WiiU reach N64 numbers.


I actually agree, but like you said those will help it get to the 35 - 40 million range, not the 75+ million that I am sure Nintendo wants.   A true Pokemon is the one game that I could see launching the system to that territory.    Everyone has been begging for it, and with how big Skylanders has gotten, they could even do something with the NFC technology that could make the game a 18+ million sell no doubt.

No way is WiiU even getting close to that 35-40m. Mario Kart and Smash will keep that thing on lifesupport and barely push it past GCN levels. THe PS3 may have taken a while to get to 80m, but it was never selling anywhere near as bad as the WiiU. You can't really compare the two. 



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

Frogger on 13 January 2014
Leadified said:
superhippy420 said:

Mario is not a bigger seller then Pokemon anymore.  When Nintendo was making a new Mario game once every 3 - 4 years it was but now that they have released a new one between the 2D/3D style pretty much every year for 7 years now its value has been decreased by alot.   Pokemon X/Y has been out for 3 months and is already the top selling game on 3DS, and thats only a year after they brought out Black/White 2.   The only 2 franchises that sell more then Pokemon now are COD and GTA.   Yes they could hurt their handheld sales, but at the benefit of moving atleast 8 - 10 million Wii U's and along with all other software that those owners will buy.   X, Bayonetta, and Hyrule Warriors all exist because Nintendo is making sure to lock up the Japanese market, which it no doubt will considering that PS4/Xbone have nothing that will interest the Japanese.    PS4 could no doubt lead this gen but to call it a lock is ridiculous.  The PS3 would have only sold maybe 40 million consoles if it wasnt for COD/FIFA, good luck being carried by those 2 for 2 generations in a row.

So the Wii U will lock down on a market without all the big third party games to go with it (FF + Kingdom Hearts + Metal Gear Solid, etc.), okay, I'm interesed to see on how that will turn out. So why did the PS1 sell 100 M+ and the PS2 150 M+?


Japan doesn't care about any of those franchises unless they're on handheld. The recent Final Fantasy flopped. Metal Gear Solid 4 flopped there. Kingdom Hearts 2 sold terribly there.

You know what sells awesome there? Monster Hunter. And Pokemon. On handhelds.

The way it looks, no home system will soar there, but Sony won't be putting up any fight.



d21lewis on 13 January 2014

...well, we do have a few clues.



Too_Talls on 13 January 2014
Turkish said:
superhippy420 said:

So I have seen alot of forum posts (too many), about why Wii U, Xbone, and PS4 will all be either big winners or losers this gen, and the bottom line to me is that not one console has either released or atleast shown that killer app that will skyrocket sales.   Wii U is currently at 5.3m, PS4 at 4.4.m, and Xbone at 3.1m., but when talking about which will sell 80+ million consoles, those numbers all all pretty irrelevent.   The Wii last gen had its 1st killer app day 1 in Wii Sports, it was revolutionary, it worked well, and everyone from casual to hardcore wanted to play it. The eventual 81+ million it moved in bundled/retail software is a number that I do not think any game will ever come close to again.   Xbox 360 didnt really have a huge console seller at 1st, but built a nice library very quickly with the Guitar Heros,Gears of War, Mass Effect, and eventually Halo 3, and thats not even mentioning how much of a bump the Kinect gave when it 1st came out.  The PS3's early problems had alot to do with price, but it also had alot to do with the fact that games like God of War III, Metal Gear Solid 4, and Gran Turismo 5 took a long time to come out.  Once they did, coupled with a price drop sales picked up.   On top of that the biggest console sellers for PS3 and 360 last gen were Call of Duty, GTA, and FIFA, all of which are 3rd party, which makes the fact that their lifetime sales are so even, not suprising.

 

So theres my last gen rundown, but quite honestly I am still waiting to see "that" game.  Wii U is getting alot of really good games, and not doubt the combination of Smash Bros/Mario Kart/ X / Donkey Kong / Hyrule Warriors (for Japan), will help pick up sales, but none of those are going to skyrocket it to 80+ million territory.  PS4 and Xbone both have had great launches but they also launched with their 2 biggest console sellers from the last 5 years (COD and FIFA), and the yearly releases for those franchises are not going to have as great of an effect on sales as they did last generation.  My point is that this generation is still wide open.  If Nintendo stops being stubborn, and makes a true open world Pokemon RPG, that would be a game changer.   Naughty Dog has been on a roll lately, but Sony needs to realize that games like Uncharted and TLOU are never going to move more then 6 million, which is great but not game changing.  If they had them develop something great that appeals to a much wider auidence it could be a game changer.  Microsoft has already killed Gears of War and Fable, and from the only 930k sold of Forza 5, they have pretty much killed that too, and now are just left with Halo.  They need some more 1st party hits, and they are going to need them soon, but all it takes is one game to really catch on (could be TItanfall, but we will see how big it actually gets).     Maybe I am just off here and the PS4 will sell 150 million, Xbone 75 million, and Wii U 15 million, but software has almost always been the deciding factor every gen, and without any DVD/Motion Control factor this gen, I think it will be more true now then ever.


Hahaha I love these posts, somehow it always sounds like it's downplaying the success of the PS4.

Sorry buddy, you may not have a clue which console will win this gen but I do. I can say with confidence that PS4 will lead this gen. It will outsell the xbone and wii u combined in the end.

 

Open world pokemon is a game changer? Lol nope. Mario is a bigger franchise than Pokemon, Mario isnt helping the wii u. Making a open world pokemon for wii u will render the 3DS useless. Why buy the 3DS games when you can buy the real experience on the console? It will never happen because it will cost many x more than developing a handheld version. Imo the last chance for Wii u is MK8, if that doesnt do good nothing will imo. No X, no Bayo 2, no whatever else they got in stores has the recognition of Mario.

 

 

outsell them both combined you say?

What to you base that on? a fast start?

Nobody thought the ps3 would pass the 360 early on.

We're in for years of these consoles and this little lead will mean nothing in about 5 years. not saying xbox will ever climb over it in sales but we don't know which system will get the system sellers. So far the biggest hype new IP is only on the bone. But even titan fall will have played a minor role when it's all said and done.

there is a lot of unknown at this point and the hardware favourite is the ps4 currently.

But the idea that the ps4 can outsell the combined numbers of the competiton is preposterous.



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