Why we really have no clue which console will win this gen.

[binary solo]

superhippy420 said:

mii-gamer said:
You can't deny the ps4 is the red hot favorite at the moment

What I don't deny is that Call of Duty and FIfa were the biggest console sellers for the US and Europe in the last 5 years and that the console launched with those, as well as being cheaper then Xbox One, along with Microsoft falling flat on their face during the reveal and E3, the combination of which has given it its amazing start.     Sony's job now is to keep up the momentum because quite frankly COD and FIFA will not be able to carry them for the next 7 - 8 years.  Nintendo and Microsoft are not going to go down that easy, and to be honest even if PS4 builds a 2 - 3 million console lead, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, and Halo are all big enough to erase that deficit in almost no time flat.

Are they?

Halo on Xb didn't sell that much less than Halo on Xb360, with a much smaller install base. Halo on Xb360 didn't grow the Xbox brand, PS3 grew the Xbox brand. For this gen it's a franchise in a slow decline and it will only sell really well in the USA. For 360 Halo 4 will probably surpass Halo: Reach in sales, but it will fall well short of Halo 3. The pulling power of Halo is not what people think it is. Halo has a dedicated fan base and it has guaranteed millions of sales for several more games. But it's not a franchise that can secure a generation win for brand Xbox. The combined might of 5 Halo games on 360 plus Halo: CE re-release couldn't stop PS3 from catching up to and overtaking 360. So why you think Halo is a magic bullet for Xb one I don't understand.

Mario Kart, and Smash Bros didn't help GC or N64 to outsell their respective PS competiion, and in the case of GC they didn't even stop the new boy Xbox from taking 2nd place. They will sell very well, as most Mario games do because a large proportion of Nintendo owners love their Mario. 1/3 of GC owners bought SS Melee, indeed Melee on GC outsold SSB on N64. Microsoft and Sony could only wish for that proportion of their console owners to buy a few of their franchises. If the current Mario offerings on Wii U aren't putting Wii U on top of Xb one and PS4 then why do you think these ones will?This is what Wii owners who've never owned a console before are thinking: "I have Mario Kart Wii, it was fun, but I don't really play it any more, why would I buy a Wii U for the same game? I have SSBB, it was fun but I don't play it much any more, why would I buy a Wii U just to play the same game again?" What these people don't understand is that they aren't the same games, because they are not gamers at their core. And this is Nintendo's error. They use the same name with slight differences because that's what works with their true fans, but that approach doesn't work with the people who never owned a console before Wii.

If PS4 gets a 2-3 million console lead then only something new and amazing on one of the other consoles will make a difference.  Going to well tapped franchises once more isn't what will overcome a multi-millon PS4 lead.