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Forums - Sales - Seven early takeaways from the eighth generation

vivster said:
RolStoppable said:

2. The industry stays on the same trajectory as in the seventh generation

The breadth of available retail software will keep getting narrower while the blockbusters will accumulate more sales per individual title. Nothing was done to reverse the fortunes of the middleground games. The market will increasingly shift towards the Call of Duties, Assassin's Creeds, Battlefields, FIFAs and Maddens, not just because people want to play those games, but also because there won't be any real alternatives. Games that do not exist cannot sell, as I like to say.


5. The 3DS is still failing, because it was conceived with the same philosophy as the Wii U

Right, I shouldn't say the 3DS is failing, because it was the best-selling video game system in 2013. That's what the general consensus is, the 3DS is doing great. But it really isn't. Just like the Wii U's strategy revolved around taking gamers away from Sony and Microsoft, so did the 3DS's strategy revolve around taking gamers away from Sony. And while the 3DS at least succeeded somewhat in its mission (securing Monster Hunter exclusivity helped a lot), it came at the cost of driving away a lot of DS customers. Nintendo certainly noticed some of their errors and tried to fix them, but not everything can be fixed, so not all of the problems will go away.

6. The PS4 will be the best-selling home console in every country

Why wouldn't it be? There is no such thing as widespread brand loyalty. If Nintendo could usurp Atari in the USA, Sony Nintendo, Nintendo Sony, and Microsoft Nintendo, then why shouldn't Sony be able to beat Microsoft? Did you have problems to read and comprehend the previous sentence?

7. Nobody gives a damn about the Vita

Even I almost forgot about its existence. Just kidding, I already mentioned its failure briefly earlier in this post.

PS4 will still have a hard time in the US and Brazil. Also maybe a few really small markets where few sales make big differences. It's quite possible that the PS4 will be behind in a few countries.

 


PS4 will have a hard time in the US???? Sorry your information is wildly outdated and incorrect, ps4 is already winning the US and has a good chance to take it, if not they will be close. They will dominate everywhere else. Behind in a few countries like where?



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RolStoppable said:
vivster said:

A few things...

 I disagree with number 2. There is not less middle tier games out. It might seem so because first they are not as visible anymore and second a few of them graduated to top tier games. Also there is the relatively new wave of indies which started last generation but is now in full force and they are selling decently and are great alternatives to AAA titles.

Can you elaborate a bit on what drove DS customers away from the 3DS? Because I'm, not seeing that at all now that the great games are flowing.

There is widespread brand loyality. Well less to the brand and more to the exclusive games and past achievements on predecessors. If it wasn't for the legacy of the PS2 the PS3 would've failed. If it wasn't for the legacy of the 360 the X1 would've failed. You can however shift the odds a bit if your competition is so bad that it will drive customers to you.

PS4 will still have a hard time in the US and Brazil. Also maybe a few really small markets where few sales make big differences. It's quite possible that the PS4 will be behind in a few countries.

The succcess of the Vita will be determined at the end of this year. There are too many unknown variables like games, remote play, PSNow, price cuts, Vita TV. But if it fails this year as well I'm with you on that.

The current landscape is nothing like what we've seen in the PS2 era. If you wanted survival horror, JRPGs, platformers, new experimental ideas etc., it was all there back then, but it's gone now. A healthy gaming market lets a diverse range of games succeed, but we are heading into the opposite direction, led by the mindset of squeezing out more money of each individual instead of selling to a broader audience. You can argue that the offerings of independent developers are improving, but it's not quite the same. One measure of success is that download-only games manage the jump to retail, but that rarely happens. I don't see that changing.

What drove DS customers away from the 3DS were high hardware and software prices, as well as the stereoscopic 3D. They are real issues, otherwise Nintendo wouldn't have backpedaled and removed the 3D which they seriously championed earlier (3D was more important than games themselves!). Also important, the diversity of the 3DS library doesn't match the DS's. You can once again argue that download-only titles are filling those gaps, but those games are invisible to the average consumer, so they might as well not exist. Of course there are types of games that you can't sell at the now standard $40/€45 price points, but there's nothing stopping Nintendo from selling $/€20-30 retail games or running commercials that show a compilation of eShop titles. Puzzle games have always enjoyed popularity on handhelds, but that genre has been wiped out on the 3DS; at least that's the impression that consumers get from how Nintendo handles things.

PS4 and Xbox One have both sold at a high pace in the USA. Sony sold more and has yet to meet demand, meanwhile it looks like Microsoft's stock has begun to pile up in stores. I see that as a clear indicator for things to come.

Maybe you didn't notice but in the last 2 years we had a giant wave of new and excellent survival horror games and they are not stopping to come out. JRPGs are still being produced, though currently mostly confined on Nintento hardware or Japan only. Also half of all indie titles are platformers with a couple of great ones even. There are also more experimental titles out there than you can shake a PS2 controller at. To say that a sign of success is retail might not hold up to today. The game industry is changing and shifting more and more to digital. Most games wouldn't exist if they'd been released retail so they are releasing digital first. If the digital sales are high enough, why jump to retail and minimize profit on a sold game? Word of mouth does more to these titles than being visible in retail nowadays.

The game industry is changing so it is fallacy to hold it to standards from 10 years ago. In those times they had no other choice than put everything on retail to make the games visible to the general public. Today there is internet which is a much bigger and more efficient marketing tool than any retailer. If all those diverse titles aren't visible to you then that means you're not looking hard enough. You can't expect getting every title shoved in your face anymore because the sheer volume of games has skyrocketed since it became more viable to self publish and make a living of making games. There isn't less diversity, there is more and I dare to say that the archaic marketing tools from 10 years ago wre holding diversity back.

I don't have enough knowledge about the sales or the DS/3DS in general so I can't say anymore than your view seems a bit onesided since the 3DS is performing very well and I would say that most 3DS customers also own a DS.

 You are correct that the signs for Sony seem to promise great things but I would be careful with bold predictions about the US. At least wait until titanfall comes out. Yes, at the end of February Sony will have a comfortable lead in the US but don't underestimate the power of MS when they are pushed into a corner. A price cut and some more amazing exclusive could change everything. If Sony is still leading after the price cut and Halo, then I'm going to start being optimistic about Sony's world domination.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

Tagged for when Xbone reach 10 million in NA... maybe late 2015.



FlamingWeazel said:
PS4 will have a hard time in the US???? Sorry your information is wildly outdated and incorrect, ps4 is already winning the US and has a good chance to take it, if not they will be close. They will dominate everywhere else. Behind in a few countries like where?

See post above. I don't say that MS will win but it isn't as clear cut as people like to believe....yet.

Brazil is a strong contender and countries were a few hundred units make double percentages of market share. I know those markets don't really count much toward the domination but he did say "EVERY country" ;)



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

vivster said:
FlamingWeazel said:
PS4 will have a hard time in the US???? Sorry your information is wildly outdated and incorrect, ps4 is already winning the US and has a good chance to take it, if not they will be close. They will dominate everywhere else. Behind in a few countries like where?

See post above.

Brazil is a strong contender and countries were a few hundred units make double percentages of market share. I know those markets don't really count much toward the domination but he did say "EVERY country" ;)


It certainly is NOT going to have a hard time in the US........................



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FlamingWeazel said:
JoeTheBro said:
BeElite said:
JoeTheBro said:
BeElite said:
ethomaz said:
I'm the only that thinks Wii U will finish second? At least until the new Nintendo console to be released... after that it can lost the second place.


MS is to proud to settle for 3rd palce, they will spend their way to a respectable 2nd place while Ninty seems content with reliving the 6th gen.


Then why are they ending the 7th gen in third place?

past is that, and growing pains.

X to 360 was serious growth, they wont settle for being beat by nin now.  To take 3rd now would be going backwards.

I don't get why people think Microsoft has some power other console companies don't. If the XBONE is doing bad, they're much more likely to sell off the division than pour billions into trying to save it.


Excatly, been seeing this since early ps3 days saying MS would not ALLOW sony to win, they would just buy everything, drop price......the real world doesn;t work that way. Pure dilusion.

I wouldn't argue like that in times of the Xbox 180. MS changed the whole concept of the console just because they were fearing to be behind. If they think they'll lose their most important market they will do something about it. A price drop will do wonders for the X1.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

RolStoppable said:
vivster said:

Maybe you didn't notice but in the last 2 years we had a giant wave of new and excellent survival horror games and they are not stopping to come out. JRPGs are still being produced, though currently mostly confined on Nintento hardware or Japan only. Also half of all indie titles are platformers with a couple of great ones even. There are also more experimental titles out there than you can shake a PS2 controller at. To say that a sign of success is retail might not hold up to today. The game industry is changing and shifting more and more to digital. Most games wouldn't exist if they'd been released retail so they are releasing digital first. If the digital sales are high enough, why jump to retail and minimize profit on a sold game? Word of mouth does more to these titles than being visible in retail nowadays.

The game industry is changing so it is fallacy to hold it to standards from 10 years ago. In those times they had no other choice than put everything on retail to make the games visible to the general public. Today there is internet which is a much bigger and more efficient marketing tool than any retailer. If all those diverse titles aren't visible to you then that means you're not looking hard enough. You can't expect getting every title shoved in your face anymore because the sheer volume of games has skyrocketed since it became more viable to self publish and make a living of making games. There isn't less diversity, there is more and I dare to say that the archaic marketing tools from 10 years ago wre holding diversity back.

I don't have enough knowledge about the sales or the DS/3DS in general so I can't say anymore than your view seems a bit onesided since the 3DS is performing very well and I would say that most 3DS customers also own a DS.

 You are correct that the signs for Sony seem to promise great things but I would be careful with bold predictions about the US. At least wait until titanfall comes out. Yes, at the end of February Sony will have a comfortable lead in the US but don't underestimate the power of MS when they are pushed into a corner. A price cut and some more amazing exclusive could change everything. If Sony is still leading after the price cut and Halo, then I'm going to start being optimistic about Sony's world domination.

Why did Minecraft release at retail?

Because we need to have an exception to prove the rule ;)
Yes a few extremely popular games like Minecraft  will have retail releases but it is far from necessary. It's just another stream of revenue. They don't need the extra exposure because if you haven't heard of minecraft before the retail release you were not living on this planet. This won't work with merely "popular" games that are popular and profitable but not enough to go retail. Those are smaller studios and going retail is a huge step. Still even with less games sold they enjoy more media coverage than any mid dle tier retail game of the PS2 era.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

vivster said:
FlamingWeazel said:
JoeTheBro said:
BeElite said:
JoeTheBro said:
BeElite said:
ethomaz said:
I'm the only that thinks Wii U will finish second? At least until the new Nintendo console to be released... after that it can lost the second place.


MS is to proud to settle for 3rd palce, they will spend their way to a respectable 2nd place while Ninty seems content with reliving the 6th gen.


Then why are they ending the 7th gen in third place?

past is that, and growing pains.

X to 360 was serious growth, they wont settle for being beat by nin now.  To take 3rd now would be going backwards.

I don't get why people think Microsoft has some power other console companies don't. If the XBONE is doing bad, they're much more likely to sell off the division than pour billions into trying to save it.


Excatly, been seeing this since early ps3 days saying MS would not ALLOW sony to win, they would just buy everything, drop price......the real world doesn;t work that way. Pure dilusion.

I wouldn't argue like that in times of the Xbox 180. MS changed the whole concept of the console just because they were fearing to be behind. If they think they'll lose their most important market they will do something about it. A price drop will do wonders for the X1.

Sony has more flexibility for price cuts, x1 has way more parts and kinect. Ms is not the only company to do price cuts......... Again, MS is not god.



FlamingWeazel said:
vivster said:
FlamingWeazel said:
JoeTheBro said:
BeElite said:
JoeTheBro said:
BeElite said:
ethomaz said:
I'm the only that thinks Wii U will finish second? At least until the new Nintendo console to be released... after that it can lost the second place.


MS is to proud to settle for 3rd palce, they will spend their way to a respectable 2nd place while Ninty seems content with reliving the 6th gen.


Then why are they ending the 7th gen in third place?

past is that, and growing pains.

X to 360 was serious growth, they wont settle for being beat by nin now.  To take 3rd now would be going backwards.

I don't get why people think Microsoft has some power other console companies don't. If the XBONE is doing bad, they're much more likely to sell off the division than pour billions into trying to save it.


Excatly, been seeing this since early ps3 days saying MS would not ALLOW sony to win, they would just buy everything, drop price......the real world doesn;t work that way. Pure dilusion.

I wouldn't argue like that in times of the Xbox 180. MS changed the whole concept of the console just because they were fearing to be behind. If they think they'll lose their most important market they will do something about it. A price drop will do wonders for the X1.

Sony has more flexibility for price cuts, x1 has way more parts and kinect. Ms is not the only company to do price cuts......... Again, MS is not god.

Wait what? Sony has absolutely no room for price cuts. Sony has it rough with business and is losing money(not that much on playstation but other divisions). Where would they get the money to afford a drop?

MS stocks and profit are through the roof and they have the ability to drop the price  with or without kinect. If MS manages to drop the price to PS4 levels then both systems are equally viable for the mainstream consumer. And since the Xbox brand is much more popular in the US than PS it will show in sales.

All I'm saying is that PS4 will not be able to dominate the US as much as elsewhere. A few 100k more for the PS4 can shrink instantly if MS plays its card right. US is by far the most important market for MS so they will do something to keep it at least even. You don't just sit back while your most important money source is taken away by the competition. For Sony the US market is very important as well, that's why they're throwing all their recources at it but it's still not as essential to Sony as it is to MS.

We should continue this discussion next January. If Sony is able to boost sales on their System then MS is double as capable of it and triple as much on home turf.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

vivster said:
FlamingWeazel said:

Sony has more flexibility for price cuts, x1 has way more parts and kinect. Ms is not the only company to do price cuts......... Again, MS is not god.

Wait what? Sony has absolutely no room for price cuts. Sony has it rough with business and is losing money(not that much on playstation but other divisions). Where would they get the money to afford a drop?

MS stocks and profit are through the roof and they have the ability to drop the price  with or without kinect. If MS manages to drop the price to PS4 levels then both systems are equally viable for the mainstream consumer. And since the Xbox brand is much more popular in the US than PS it will show in sales.

All I'm saying is that PS4 will not be able to dominate the US as much as elsewhere. A few 100k more for the PS4 can shrink instantly if MS plays its card right. US is by far the most important market for MS so they will do something to keep it at least even. You don't just sit back while your most important money source is taken away by the competition. For Sony the US market is very important as well, that's why they're throwing all their recources at it but it's still not as essential to Sony as it is to MS.

We should continue this discussion next January. If Sony is able to boost sales on their System then MS is double as capable of it and triple as much on home turf.

WTF?? Like ps3 never had room for cuts?? Do you even know how cuts work?? As time goes on the hardware gts cheaper and manufacture process gets better, thus price gets cut, Sony is better at this then MS, and ps4 will be easier to drop due to less parts no kinect.. Sorry you don't know what you are talking about. Look at ps3 compared to 360 Price cuts...... You are saying ps4 won't have price cuts???? LOL.