Seven early takeaways from the eighth generation

[vivster]

RolStoppable said:

vivster said:

A few things...

 I disagree with number 2. There is not less middle tier games out. It might seem so because first they are not as visible anymore and second a few of them graduated to top tier games. Also there is the relatively new wave of indies which started last generation but is now in full force and they are selling decently and are great alternatives to AAA titles.

Can you elaborate a bit on what drove DS customers away from the 3DS? Because I'm, not seeing that at all now that the great games are flowing.

There is widespread brand loyality. Well less to the brand and more to the exclusive games and past achievements on predecessors. If it wasn't for the legacy of the PS2 the PS3 would've failed. If it wasn't for the legacy of the 360 the X1 would've failed. You can however shift the odds a bit if your competition is so bad that it will drive customers to you.

PS4 will still have a hard time in the US and Brazil. Also maybe a few really small markets where few sales make big differences. It's quite possible that the PS4 will be behind in a few countries.

The succcess of the Vita will be determined at the end of this year. There are too many unknown variables like games, remote play, PSNow, price cuts, Vita TV. But if it fails this year as well I'm with you on that.

The current landscape is nothing like what we've seen in the PS2 era. If you wanted survival horror, JRPGs, platformers, new experimental ideas etc., it was all there back then, but it's gone now. A healthy gaming market lets a diverse range of games succeed, but we are heading into the opposite direction, led by the mindset of squeezing out more money of each individual instead of selling to a broader audience. You can argue that the offerings of independent developers are improving, but it's not quite the same. One measure of success is that download-only games manage the jump to retail, but that rarely happens. I don't see that changing.

What drove DS customers away from the 3DS were high hardware and software prices, as well as the stereoscopic 3D. They are real issues, otherwise Nintendo wouldn't have backpedaled and removed the 3D which they seriously championed earlier (3D was more important than games themselves!). Also important, the diversity of the 3DS library doesn't match the DS's. You can once again argue that download-only titles are filling those gaps, but those games are invisible to the average consumer, so they might as well not exist. Of course there are types of games that you can't sell at the now standard $40/€45 price points, but there's nothing stopping Nintendo from selling $/€20-30 retail games or running commercials that show a compilation of eShop titles. Puzzle games have always enjoyed popularity on handhelds, but that genre has been wiped out on the 3DS; at least that's the impression that consumers get from how Nintendo handles things.

PS4 and Xbox One have both sold at a high pace in the USA. Sony sold more and has yet to meet demand, meanwhile it looks like Microsoft's stock has begun to pile up in stores. I see that as a clear indicator for things to come.

Maybe you didn't notice but in the last 2 years we had a giant wave of new and excellent survival horror games and they are not stopping to come out. JRPGs are still being produced, though currently mostly confined on Nintento hardware or Japan only. Also half of all indie titles are platformers with a couple of great ones even. There are also more experimental titles out there than you can shake a PS2 controller at. To say that a sign of success is retail might not hold up to today. The game industry is changing and shifting more and more to digital. Most games wouldn't exist if they'd been released retail so they are releasing digital first. If the digital sales are high enough, why jump to retail and minimize profit on a sold game? Word of mouth does more to these titles than being visible in retail nowadays.

The game industry is changing so it is fallacy to hold it to standards from 10 years ago. In those times they had no other choice than put everything on retail to make the games visible to the general public. Today there is internet which is a much bigger and more efficient marketing tool than any retailer. If all those diverse titles aren't visible to you then that means you're not looking hard enough. You can't expect getting every title shoved in your face anymore because the sheer volume of games has skyrocketed since it became more viable to self publish and make a living of making games. There isn't less diversity, there is more and I dare to say that the archaic marketing tools from 10 years ago wre holding diversity back.

I don't have enough knowledge about the sales or the DS/3DS in general so I can't say anymore than your view seems a bit onesided since the 3DS is performing very well and I would say that most 3DS customers also own a DS.

 You are correct that the signs for Sony seem to promise great things but I would be careful with bold predictions about the US. At least wait until titanfall comes out. Yes, at the end of February Sony will have a comfortable lead in the US but don't underestimate the power of MS when they are pushed into a corner. A price cut and some more amazing exclusive could change everything. If Sony is still leading after the price cut and Halo, then I'm going to start being optimistic about Sony's world domination.