According to vince they paid extra for complete exclusivity after originaly timed, so must be loads 150mill sounds right

My dad is an Xbox and my mum was an EA so I know how much they spent.

I disagree with your logic entirely. You're forgetting to factor in two major concerns.

1. The increased risk associated with next-generation video-game development.
2. The risk of launching into a saturated genre.

In a nutshell, EA would have been taking an enormous risk developing Titanfall for release across PC and next-generation platforms. Microsoft has likely financed part of the development, or the marketing budget. Doing so would move to ensure profitability for the project (as EA can be confident of at least some sales), whilst providing the opportunity for the launch of what could turn into a successful franchise.

My guess would be something south of $50 million.

Well I think we can all agree it was a good choice. Can you guys imagine how bleak things would feel if the XBONE didn't have Titanfall coming up?

I don't think so. First, we're talking about a new IP. Depending on when the deal was made, there might not have been enough there to assume it was going to be a huge success. We're also talking about an online-only title on a new console, which will have a relatively small installed base when the game launches. That sets a cap on just how much it can sell. The online-only part also likely means that sales will go cliff diving when the sequel arrives.

In addition to that, some of the pay-out was probably deferred to advertisement. If Microsoft advertises Titanfall heavily then I think we can assume that was part of the deal. Deals like that can also have lots of extra provisions. We do this now and you support that later--that kind of stuff. Microsoft might even be using "cloud" access as leverage.

I think the actually money changing hands will be closer to the range Pachter mentioned.

Undoubtedly. Barely even see threads for other upcoming games. It's all about people "seeing" and talking about Titanfall. Even Playstation fans seem more interested in it than Infamous. A game that is barely getting any forum hype and is coming out in the same month as TF. 

It is more than a little bizzare for sure. 

Don't know, probably less than you think.

Getting a 1st party push and marketing from MS is a huge incentive. They are basically relying on MS to make the series a success.

75million

You're joking, right? Titanfall will likely only sell 2-5 million copies. It doesn't even have a single player campaign. Let's say they sell 3 million copies. That's roughly $180 million in revenue. Of that, Microsoft would only get a small fraction of the sales. If they were to invest 150-200 million they would lose 100-150 million in the end: An abysmal ROI.

i imagine they would have delayed Dead Rising 3 until march. (they wouldnt have even announced it as a launch tittle). god knows it could have used those extra few months of polish too.