I don't think so. First, we're talking about a new IP. Depending on when the deal was made, there might not have been enough there to assume it was going to be a huge success. We're also talking about an online-only title on a new console, which will have a relatively small installed base when the game launches. That sets a cap on just how much it can sell. The online-only part also likely means that sales will go cliff diving when the sequel arrives.
In addition to that, some of the pay-out was probably deferred to advertisement. If Microsoft advertises Titanfall heavily then I think we can assume that was part of the deal. Deals like that can also have lots of extra provisions. We do this now and you support that later--that kind of stuff. Microsoft might even be using "cloud" access as leverage.
I think the actually money changing hands will be closer to the range Pachter mentioned.
